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Vaccine Mandate Protest Letter

No authorship claim or copyright asserted...this letter just came to me in a bottle, and I have no idea who might have penned it, nor can I possibly vouch for it, and what you fine folks do with it is entirely in your own hands, as the Gentlemen of the Bar remind me I can proffer no general legal advice in the matter, and must officially disclaim proffering any such advice here...edit and excise as you see fit, amend and append as you desire, and claim authorship or anonymity as may best befit you...as always, as you wish...

Dear Boss,

Compelling any employee to take any current Covid-19 vaccine violates federal and state law, and subjects the employer to substantial liability risk, including liability for any injury the employee may suffer from the vaccine. Many employers have reconsidered issuing such a mandate after more fruitful review with legal counsel, insurance providers, and public opinion advisors of the desires of employees and the consuming public. Even the Kaiser Foundation warned of the legal risk in this respect. (https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/key-questions-about-covid-19-vaccine-mandates/)

Three key concerns: first, while the vaccine remains unapproved by the FDA and authorized only for emergency use, federal law forbids mandating it, in accordance with the Nuremberg Code of 1947; second, the Americans with Disabilities Act proscribes, punishes and penalizes employers who invasively inquire into their employees' medical status and then treat those employees differently based on their medical status, as the many AIDS related cases of decades ago fully attest; and third, international law, Constitutional law, specific statutes and the common law of torts all forbid conditioning access to employment upon coerced, invasive medical examinations and treatment, unless the employer can fully provide objective, scientifically validated evidence of the threat from the employee and how no practicable alternative could possible suffice to mitigate such supposed public health threat and still perform the necessary essentials of employment.

At the outset, consider the "problem" being "solved" by vaccination mandates. The previously infected are better protected than the vaccinated, so why aren't they exempted? Equally, the symptomatic can be self-isolated. Hence, requiring vaccinations only addresses one risk: dangerous or deadly transmission, by the asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic employee, in the employment setting. Yet even government official Mr. Fauci admits, as scientific studies affirm, asymptomatic transmission is exceedingly and "very rare." Indeed, initial data suggests the vaccinated are just as, or even much more, likely to transmit the virus as the asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic. Hence, the vaccine solves nothing. This evidentiary limitation on any employer's decision making, aside from the legal and insurance risks of forcing vaccinations as a term of employment without any accommodation or even exception for the previously infected (and thus better protected), is the reason most employers wisely refuse to mandate the vaccine. This doesn't even address the arbitrary self-limitation of the pool of talent for the employer: why reduce your own talent pool, when many who refuse invasive inquiries or risky treatment may be amongst your most effective, efficient and profitable employees?

First, federal law prohibits any mandate of the Covid-19 vaccines as unlicensed, emergency-use-authorization-only vaccines. Subsection bbb-3(e)(1)(A)(ii)(III) of section 360 of Title 21 of the United States Code, otherwise known as the Emergency Use Authorization section of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, demands that everyone give employees the "option to accept or refuse administration" of the Covid-19 vaccine. (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/360bbb-3 ) This right to refuse emergency, experimental vaccines, such as the Covid-19 vaccine, implements the internationally agreed legal requirement of Informed Consent established in the Nuremberg Code of 1947. (http://www.cirp.org/library/ethics/nuremberg/ ). As the Nuremberg Code established, every person must "be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, deceit, duress, overreaching, or other ulterior form of constraint or coercion; and should have sufficient knowledge and comprehension of the elements of the subject matter involved as to enable him to make an understanding and enlightened decision" for any medical experimental drug, as the Covid-19 vaccine currently is. The Nuremberg Code prohibited even the military from requiring such experimental vaccines. (Doe #1 v. Rumsfeld, 297 F.Supp.2d 119 (D.D.C. 2003).

Second, demanding employees divulge their personal medical information invades their protected right to privacy, and discriminates against them based on their perceived medical status, in contravention of the Americans with Disabilities Act. (42 USC §12112(a).) Indeed, the ADA prohibits employers from invasive inquiries about their medical status, and that includes questions about diseases and treatments for those diseases, such as vaccines. As the EEOC makes clear, an employer can only ask medical information if the employer can prove the medical information is both job-related and necessary for the business. (https://www.eeoc.gov/laws/guidance/questions-and-answers-enforcement-guidance-disability-related-inquiries-and-medical). An employer that treats an individual employee differently based on that employer’s belief the employee’s medical condition impairs the employee is discriminating against that employee based on perceived medical status disability, in contravention of the ADA. The employer must have proof that the employer cannot keep the employee, even with reasonable accommodations, before any adverse action can be taken against the employee. If the employer asserts the employee’s medical status (such as being unvaccinated against a particular disease) precludes employment, then the employer must prove that the employee poses a “safety hazard” that cannot be reduced with a reasonable accommodation. The employer must prove, with objective, scientifically validated evidence, that the employee poses a materially enhanced risk of serious harm that no reasonable accommodation could mitigate. This requires the employee's medical status cause a substantial risk of serious harm, a risk that cannot be reduced by any another means. This is a high, and difficult burden, for employers to meet. Just look at the all prior cases concerning HIV and AIDS, when employers discriminated against employees based on their perceived dangerousness, and ended up paying millions in legal fees, damages and fines.

Third, conditioning continued employment upon participating in a medical experiment and demanding disclosure of private, personal medical information, may also create employer liability under other federal and state laws, including HIPAA, FMLA, and applicable state tort law principles, including torts prohibiting and proscribing invasions of privacy and battery. Indeed, any employer mandating a vaccine is liable to their employee for any adverse event suffered by that employee. The CDC records reports of the adverse events already reported to date concerning the current Covid-19 vaccine.(https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/vaers.html )

Finally, forced vaccines constitute a form of battery, and the Supreme Court long made clear "no right is more sacred than the right of every individual to the control of their own person, free from all restraint or interference of others." (https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/141/250)

With Regards,
Employee of the Year

XXX

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Tickets Now Available!
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Board Poll: Trump Job Approval

Your opinion on Trump's 2nd term? Add your own thoughts or comments in replies below.

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, August 17, 2026

I. INTRODUCTION

*Tickets now for sale. Limited availability. https://www.1776lawcenter.com/

A. Art of the Week

  • The earth, shaded by the moon, from the photos by Artemis, by Musk’s SpaceX to explore the universe. Shades within shades, as the earth looks like a quarter-Moon from earth, but just in reverse. All is often just a matter of perspective. 

B. Recommendation of the Week

C. Wisdom of the Week

  • “But the wisdom that is from above is indeed first pure, then peaceable, gentle, willing to yield, full of mercy and good fruits, without partiality and without hypocrisy.” James 3:17. 

D. Appearances

  • LIVE w/ Ed Dowd.
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  • LIVE w/ Baris & Massie.
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  • LIVE w/ Larry Johnson

II. THE EVIDENCE

*NOTE: A reminder: links are NOT endorsements of the authors or their interpretation of events, but intended to expand our library of understanding as well as expose ideas of distinct perspective to our own. 

A. Barnes Library: Curated Weekly Articles

  1. Iran deal possibility. https://substack.com/home/post/p-194261430
  2. Studying the Blob. https://www.blobstudies.com
  3. Israel support collapses amongst non-Boomer evangelicals. https://www.jpost.com/christianworld/article-786545
  4. Oil economy understood.
  5. Ukraine-Russian war.

 *Bonus: Artemis imagery. https://www.nasa.gov/artemis-ii-multimedia/

B. Best of the Board: Five Fun Posts of the Week

  1. Comedic relief. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862387/title
  2. Appetizing images. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862324/title
  3. Economic realities. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862450/figured-i-d-share-a-very-local-economy-anecdote-from-my-area-i-m-a-homebuilder-in-the-ny-area
  4. Law school lessons. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862399/i-am-sick-again-so-i-havent-been-hugely-functional-but-yesterday-in-a-criminal-law-class-we-ran-th
  5. Oil breakdown. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862095/title

*Bonus: Meme magic. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7861462/title

C. Homework: Cases of the Week for Sunday

  1. SCOTUS: removal. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-813_3e04.pdf
  2. FISA fails. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/17/spy-powers-expiration-closes-in-as-house-procedural-vote-fails-00878317
  3. Surveillance state controls. https://conservativeladiesofamerica.substack.com/p/the-parents-decide-act-doesnt-let
  4. Trump admin sued w/ rare Quo Warranto petition. https://www.bloomberglaw.com/public/desktop/document/BROWNvDeLeeuwDocketNo126cv01249DDCApr142026CourtDocket?doc_id=X5I57TSSSN08PDAPHKTHG7DTO30
  5. Eastman disbarred. https://www.calbar.ca.gov/news/attorney-john-eastman-disbarred-california-supreme-court
  6. Livenation verdict. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/live-nation-verdict-faceplant-trump-132338276.html
  7. Ukrainegate. https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2026/4154-pr-06-26
  8. Popular vote compact. https://digitalcommons.law.byu.edu/lawreview/vol2012/iss5/3/
  9. Boasberg shut down.  https://media.cadc.uscourts.gov/opinions/docs/2026/04/25-5452.pdf
  10. Savannah Hernandez. https://www.newsnationnow.com/crime/3-arrested-turning-point-usa-reporter-video-assault/
  11. ICE officer arrest. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ice-agent-charged-assault-minnesota-metro-surge-immigration-rcna332210
  12. 1A & licensure. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/25-2991-shamrock-hills-v-Iowa-appelant-brief.pdf

*Bonus: Media censorship limited. https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/04/ftc-takes-action-restore-competition-digital-advertising-ecosystem

**Bonus Cop case in Chicago. https://abc7chicago.com/post/ex-new-york-city-police-sgt-erik-duran-sentenced-throwing-cooler-fleeing-suspect-eric-duprey-killing/18861401/

***Bonus Gallego scandal. https://ktar.com/arizona-news/ruben-gallego-misconduct-allegations/5848619/

D. Deep Dive: Iran War Prospects

  1. The strategic surprise. https://global21.substack.com/p/america-has-never-faced-an-adversary
  2. Iran as new power. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opinion/iran-war-strait-hormuz.html
  3. A grand bargain. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-us-ceasefire-deal/
  4. The Israel aspect. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/israel-ceasefire/#:~:text=In%20order%20to%20do%20that,to%20further%20Israeli%20regional%20ambition.
  5. The Emirati angle. https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/the-united-arab-emirates-america-and-israels-frankenstein-monster/

*Bonus: The lego AI war. https://rumble.com/user/ExplosiveMediaa?e9s=src_v1_cbl

III. CLOSING ARGUMENT: The Power to Tax

  • The Preamble provides the purpose of the federal government to “insure domestic tranquility”, “provide for the common defense”, “promote the general welfare” and “secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity.” These balanced interests find manifestation in the enumerated powers articulated within the rest of the Constitution. 
  • Article I, Section 7 provides for “bills for raising revenue” including the enumerated power “to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposes and excises.” Article I, Section 8 imposes two restraints on the power to tax beyond the purposive restraint “to raise revenue.” All “duties, imposts and excises” must be “uniform throughout the United States.” Article I Section 9 prohibits any tax or duty on exports from any state and no capitation or direct tax can be imposed “unless in proportion to the census.” 
  • The Ninth Amendment further limits those enumerated rights to tax to a taxing power that does not “deny or disparate others retained by the people.” 
  • The Sixteenth Amendment expands Congress power to tax “without apportionment” and “without regard to any census” if imposed “on incomes” regardless of the source of those incomes. Effectively, it removed a federal tax on “incomes” from the apportionment requirement of direct taxes even if those incomes derived from sources that would otherwise require apportionment under Article I. 
  • This leaves open the big question: what is “incomes” under the Sixteenth Amendment? Congress abdicates the issue by using a self-referential and circular definition of income, which under English common law tradition, would negate any income tax since no tax be imposed without unambiguous specificity as to what is being taxed. 
  • The twin decisions that govern this are a dissent and a majority authored by the same Justice a near quarter-century apart — the dissent by Justice White in Pollock and his majority opinion in Brushaber. White considered incomes limited to its original understanding by the voters when ratifying the Sixteenth Amendment, and thus focused not on incomes, but the source rule. He felt a tax on anything other than land and people (capitation) did not require apportionment for its Constitutional imposition. The closest we get is “gain severed from the source” when that source is property or the person. 
  • Hence, a critical term to freedom from imposition by the state remains ambiguous and unanswered — what exactly is “incomes” within the meaning of the Constitution? 
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The Barnes Brief: Easter Weekend, 2026

**Alert: Amos Miller Special Dinner Fundraiser: https://www.1776lawcenter.com

I. INTRODUCTION 

A. Art of the Week

  • Simple, delicate art by our own board member, honoring the Amish and their deeply American way of life. A return to our roots, a remembrance of our past, the connection to nature, the celebration of life, the spiritual grounding of all. The light of the Creator shines through the archives of nature, and especially in the lives, lifestyles, and unbeatable smiles of the Amish. Many thanks to Janelle! 

B. Recommendation of the Week

C. Wisdom of the Week

  • "What these neoconservatives seek is to conscript American blood to make the world safe for Israel.” Pat Buchanan. 

D. Appearances

  • LIVE w/ Massie, etc on Massie Money Bomb. Starts about the 9 hour mark.
  • LIVE w/ Joe Kent
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  • LIVE w/ Daniel Davis

II. THE EVIDENCE

*NOTE: A reminder: links are NOT endorsements of the authors or their interpretation of events, but intended to expand our library of understanding as well as expose ideas of distinct perspective to our own. 

A. Barnes Library: Curated Weekly Articles

  1. Nuke the petrodollar? https://substack.com/home/post/p-193046193
  2. Hersh: ground war incoming. https://substack.com/home/post/p-192971172
  3. Shifting means of war. https://substack.com/@notesongeopolitics/note/c-227238425
  4. Oil market troubles. https://substack.com/home/post/p-192157738
  5. China dependency. https://substack.com/home/post/p-183818706

 *Bonus: Disruption over dominance. https://chandragupta.substack.com/p/adaptation-asymmetry-why-disruption

B. Best of the Board: Five Fun Posts of the Week

  1. Good, Good Friday. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7825982/robertbarnes-robertgouveia-vivafrei-amen
  2. Massie is the goat. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823804/massie-is-the-goat
  3. Meme magic. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7824054/title
  4. Familial art. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823418/hobby-time-so-i-took-a-picture-of-my-grandson-troy-and
  5. Biblical hope.https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7816973/as-i-awoke-this-morning-god-brought-a-verse-to-my-mind-im-watching-nearly-everyone-losing-hope-an

*Bonus: Board poll & discussion. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7826542/board-poll-iran-war

C. Homework: Cases of the Week for Sunday

  1. Pay-for-Play Pam fired. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7817841/well-well-well-our-robertbarnes-was-just-a-couple-days-off-edit-sorry-robert-your-date-was-ap
  2. SCOTUS: Birthright Citizenship. https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/25-5146_6468.pdf
  3. Generals sacked. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823954/title
  4. Chaz death verdict. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823874/judge-denies-seattles-demand-for-new-trial-over-30-5-million-verdict-in-2020-chaz-shooting-death-o
  5. J6 pipe bomber exposed. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7815188/this-is-a-bombshell
  6. Tine Peters appeal outcome. https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Tina_Opinion-1.pdf
  7. OKeefe 2A threatened. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7825133/https-youtube-com-watch-v-rzgl9wihqrs-si-kzhahe-xmdlxm00v-technically-he-doesnt-have-to-show-up
  8. Vance fraud czar. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7826391/i-feel-like-we-ve-seen-this-script-before-hopefully-it-has-a-different-ending-https-x-com-the
  9. Dalaiden dismissed. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7819571/finally-all-charges-dismissed-against-david-daleiden-evidence-baby-parts-for-sale-after-11-years
  10. Nutty Colorado rules. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823702/https-x-com-ianspeir-status-2039724650150994362
  11. Bulls players dismissed for his religious views. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7826147/professor-jonathan-turley-below-is-my-column-in-the-new-york-post-on-the-termination-of-chicago-bu
  12. Time for enforcement. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823424/https-x-com-afpost-status-2039789171112345664-the-mass-deportation-coalition

*A Board question. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7817093/could-any-of-the-illustrious-attorneys-on-the-board-please-explain-this-to-me-how-is-it-legal-to-ad

**Self-defense? https://courthousenews.com/maui-doctor-claims-self-defense-in-trial-over-wifes-cliffside-attack/

***Sony settlement for gamers. https://courthousenews.com/gamers-near-7-million-settlement-in-playstation-credits-with-sony/

D. Deep Dive: The Gulf 

  1. The genetic gulf between the Arabs & Iranians.
  2. The gulf within the Gulf.
  3. MBS: the Call of Duty fan in charge of the Saudis.
  4. Dubai mirage.
  5. The peculiar history of the Gulf.

*Doomberg: China doesn’t need the Gulf or Iran.

III. CLOSING ARGUMENT: The Constitutional Constrictions on Holding Office

  • Article I, Section 3 conditions holding office as a Senator to those at least 30 years old, a citizen for at least 9 years, and an inhabitant of the state they represent at the time of election. 
  • Article I, Section 2 conditions holding office in the House of Representatives to those at least 25 years of age, a citizen for at least 7 years, and an inhabitant of the state they represent at the time of election. 
  • Article II, Section 1 requires anyone holding the office of the Presidency by a natural born Citizen, at least 35 years of age, and 14 years a resident within the country. 
  • Amendment XIV requires anyone holding the office of Senator or Representative to not have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the United States, not “given aid or comfort to the enemies” of the United States, the latter being defined to times of war. 
  • Amendment XXII further restricts Presidential office to those not elected more than twice and to ten years of Presidential service. 
  • Amendment XXV provides the protocol for a President “unable to discharge the power and duties of his office” permitting his removal on stricter grounds provided for by Impeachment and Removal clauses within the Constitution. 
  • The question thus beckons: if a minimum age be required for holding office, what about a maximum age? Should there be a mandatory retirement age for holding office? Why? Because their elder leaders were George Washington and Benjamin Franklin, not Nancy Pelosi or Joe Biden. Time to reconsider. 
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The Barnes Brief: Friday, March 27, 2026

I. INTRODUCTION 

**Alert: Amos Miller Special Dinner Fundraiser: https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7756876/1776-law-center-fundraiser-birthday-bash-at-amos-millers

A. Art of the Week

  • The artful studio, the hidden cigar room, and the secret negotiations place. The well-structured chairs, the comfortable cushions, the wood-paneled walls, the delicate lamps, the simple table, the luxuriant rug, the seafaring sailboat beckoning on the wall. The simple art of everyday aesthetics that shape mind and soul alike, the art that envelops and motivates at the same. An inviting, beckoning, hidden welcome. 

B. Recommendation of the Week

C. Wisdom of the Week

  • “The most disadvantageous peace is better than the most just war.” Desiderius Erasmus. 

D. Appearances

  • Interview w/ Dr. Parsi.
    placeholder

II. THE EVIDENCE

*NOTE: A reminder: links are NOT endorsements of the authors or their interpretation of events, but intended to expand our library of understanding as well as expose ideas of distinct perspective to our own. 

A. Barnes Library: Curated Weekly Articles

  1. The Gallipoli example. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/veterans-iran/
  2. Private credit risks spread. https://substack.com/home/post/p-192317151
  3. Doomberg’s perspective. https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/house-of-pain
  4. Exit ramps. https://www.cato.org/commentary/how-end-war-iran
  5. Dr. Malone exits. https://thehighwire.com/watch/

 *Bonus: Rescued by hanging onto a cliff. https://abc7news.com/post/live-crews-working-rescue-person-clinging-cliff-house-san-francisco/18773788/

B. Best of the Board: Five Fun Posts of the Week

  1. Comedic wisdom. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7802545/this-ones-for-you-janet-fly-the-friendly-skies
  2. American roulette. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7802590/seems-pretty-accurate-from-where-i-sit-both-parties-are-poison-they-just-have-different-ideas-on
  3. Light and shadow at the Lighthouse. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7802467/title
  4. Malone warns. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7801997/they-tried-it-s-over
  5. Ideas for reformers. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7802626/here-it-is-robertbarnes-a-highly-detailed-and-extensively-researched-list-for-1776-law-center-u

*Bonus: Art meets nature. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7801135/title

C. Homework: Cases of the Week for Sunday

  1. Free speech win. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/03/27/a_consent_decree_for_freedom_speech_153985.html
  2. Pentagon loses Anthropic block. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.465515/gov.uscourts.cand.465515.134.0.pdf
  3. North Carolina voter id upheld. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/nc-voter-id-naacp-hirsch-berger.pdf
  4. Environmentalists lose. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/reclamation-water-contracts-ruling.pdf
  5. Cop negligence. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/monica-liliana-v-san-diego-ruling.pdf
  6. Musk loses. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/x-advertiser-boycott-lawsuit-dismissed.pdf
  7. Musk loses again. https://www.storyboard18.com/digital/elon-musk-challenges-twitter-fraud-verdict-flags-4-20-joke-as-jury-bias-93424.htm
  8. Facebook loses. https://courthousenews.com/meta-and-google-hit-with-6-million-verdict-for-social-media-harms-to-young-woman/
  9. Facebook loses again. https://nmdoj.gov/press-release/new-mexico-department-of-justice-wins-landmark-verdict-against-meta/
  10. SCOTUS: copyright law. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-171_bq7d.pdf
  11. SCOTUS: more immunity. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-297_bqm2.pdf
  12. SCOTUS: mail-in voting argument. https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/24-1260_8njq.pdf

*Bonus: A joke lawsuit over Lion King. https://www.slashfilm.com/2133281/the-lion-king-circle-of-life-singer-comedian-learnmore-jonasi-lawsuit/

**Bonus: Google settles again. https://topclassactions.com/lawsuit-settlements/open-lawsuit-settlements/5m-google-play-subscription-class-action-settlement/

***Bonus; MN sues over shootings. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.290713/gov.uscourts.dcd.290713.1.0_2.pdf

D. Deep Dive: Sources on X to Follow on Iran War

  1. War analyst. https://x.com/pati_marins64
  2. Former Israeli defense intelligence. https://x.com/citrinowicz
  3. War & geopolitics nerd. https://x.com/policytensor
  4. Commodity manager. https://x.com/tleilax___
  5. Geopolitics from an economics perspective. https://x.com/DarioCpx?

*Bonus: War nerd. https://x.com/ripplebrain

III. CLOSING ARGUMENT: An Answer to My Critics on Iran War

  • A few common complaints recur. Their most continuous error is the failure to step back and provide an effective overview. What are the rewards you seek? What is the probability the means you employ will obtain those rewards? What are the risks of using those means to obtain those rewards? What is the probability of those risks coming to fruition? This simple 4-step analysis is the very thing the critics can’t seem to meaningfully engage. Instead, the criticisms tend to conflate wishful thinking with geopolitical realism. 
  • For example: “Are you saying you want the Islamic regime in Iran to be the hegemon in the Middle East?” Nope. I am saying the current war is more and more likely to make them such a hegemon. This common confusion conflates wishful thinking with geopolitical realism. Recognizing a likely reality doesn’t make it a desirable reality. Wishing for a particular outcome doesn’t make it happen. This isn’t a fairytale world. 
  • Another: “Sounds like Barnes is moving the goal posts by labeling Iran's proxies as 'resistance movements. ' lol” It is important to use consistent, objective definitions for a label like “terrorism”, rather than the subjective whims of calling those you don’t like “terrorists” but excuse the identical conduct by those you support as something else. Terrorism has a long standing broadly understood definition: “the unlawful use of violence against civilians to intimidate societies for politicized objectives.” By that definition, Iran’s support tends to be for rebels who mostly use violence against states or other armed rivals — e.g., the Houthis, Hezbollah and the Shia Militias in Iraq. By contrast, they fought ISIS more than we did. By our own State Department, more terrorism happens by Israel and US backed groups than by Iran. Pretending otherwise makes the Iran critics look hypocritical and fraudulent. Equally, and more importantly for American security interests, it makes Iran’s government not an imminent threat to Americans in our own homeland. As is, even if it did, the war creates far more terrorists who will target America.  
  • A third: “I guess a 4000km range missile doesn't worry Mr. Barnes. Personally, I would prefer a non-radioactive Middle East.” Once again, what is your evidence Iran would use nuclear armed ballistic missiles against the United States when they have whenever attacked us in our homeland, ever? Even if you believed that was so, how do you think the war reduces that risk? 
  • This fundamental failure to test their own assumptions, filter their own arguments through an objectively verifiable standard, and their dubious sourcing relying on emotional appeals, the critics reveal their lack of quality arguments for their position. 
  • My take: I see the reward of a peaceful, democratic, pro-American, pro-Israel regime in Iran as highly unlikely. I see the reward of an Iran incapable of making nuclear weapons as equally unlikely. I see the reward of a docile, submissive Iran, unsupportive of Shia rebel groups and the Palestinians as equally unlikely. Indeed, I see the risk of a more hostile, more likely to get nuclear weapons, more likely to embrace true terrorism, as the more probable outcome of the war. As important, I see the risk of Democratic dominance for a half-decade as much more likely than Iran becoming the 1978 Shah’s version of Iran, due to the betrayal to anti-war voters, the economic fallout from the conflict, the budgetary cost of the war, and the way it sucks all the oxygen out of the room from achieving any meaningful reforms of the kind Trump voters elected him to achieve.
  • It is that risk-reward analysis that leads to my skepticism toward the war. Those who disagree need to do so on those terms — what is the sought after reward?; what is the price, or risk, of the means chosen to obtain that reward?; compare and contrast the two to come to a decision about the policy preferences concerning the war. The fact the critics cannot even try to do so speaks volumes about the absence of good arguments on their side of supporting the war. 
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