https://www.facebook.com/InstitutefortheStudyofWar/posts/pfbid0kLNxrkDcJeNKHArdNsf4Q7ULmmiGUGhQa5Sxmg6ekEzj1s32fP7eUH7Di8GbjSkgl

Institute for the Study of War, on Pokrovsk. Reads like a professionally written piece, meaning that they are mostly truthful, BUT have heavy caveats to their conditions and implied meaning based on word choice. I'll break this down in detail below.

Here's their post verbatim:
NEW: Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance indicates that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent.
Recent Russian advances elsewhere on the frontline have largely been opportunistic and exploited seasonal weather conditions. Ukrainian forces have proven effective at constraining Russian advances and conducting successful counteroffensives, particularly when well-staffed and well-equipped.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26, 2025: https://isw.pub/UkrWar11262025
Other Key Takeaways:
Kremlin officials continue setting conditions to reject any peace deal that does not concede to all of Russia’s maximalist demands.
The Kremlin is reportedly concerned that the United States will correctly interpret Russia as unwilling to meaningfully engage in negotiations and accept any peace deal that compromises its ability to achieve its maximalist claims.
Recent Ukrainian counterattacks may further delay Russian forces’ seizure of Pokrovsk, though the situation in Pokrovsk remains serious and dynamic at this time.
Russia continues setting conditions to deploy active reservists to combat against Ukraine.
Russia’s long-range strike campaign is increasingly killing and injuring civilians.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman.

Here's the quick TLDR:
Russian breakthrough in 1x area is likely or imminent (Pokrovsk), a possible around Udache, Kupiansk and around the direction near Pokrovs'ke, but those aren't quite as imminent as Pokrovsk.

Note their typical use of language to try and couch the conversation:

Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance indicates that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent. -> "inevitable", "imminent", "rapid". The rate of advance is the highlight, not to the inevitability of defeat. Meaning their full argument states that a fall of Donetsk does not preclude a fall of the whole country. While this should be fairly obvious, this is used to distinguish them from the pundits. The pundits will take and sensationalize everything, with click-bait titles like COLLAPSE OF UKRAINE IMMINENT. or RUSSIAN RELIEF COLUMN DESTROYED BY UAVS. Almost everything is stupidly hyperbolic at all times. This use of nuance and reasoned language, draws you into the professional sensibilities and builds their credibility.

Recent Russian advances elsewhere on the frontline have largely been opportunistic and exploited seasonal weather conditions. Ukrainian forces have proven effective at constraining Russian advances and conducting successful counteroffensives, particularly when well-staffed and well-equipped.
-> Has two main factors here. Weather, and staffing/equipment.
The weather portion is true. Bad weather means UAVs don't fly too well, air support gets grounded, so artillery is back to being the undisputed king. Conversely, bad weather also means logistics support is slow, so no quick breakthrough. There isn't much revelatory about these.
On staffing and manning, it is almost a stupid, blatant, and obvious statement. But note the wording. Of course, a full-on Ukrainian force with the correct equipment, leadership, manning, training, etc, will be able to resist and counter a Russian attack. But we also know that is not the case too for the average Ukrainian unit. The use of the word "particularly", implies that this is the exception and not the rule. Already, we know that Ukrainian units are undermanned to the tune of operating at around 60-70% manning (See https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2025-03-14/army-a-crossroads-mobilisation-and-organisational-crisis), while sometimes tasked with overly large areas (See https://empr.media/opinion/analytics/absolute-wartime-record-how-one-ukrainian-brigade-holds-5-of-the-entire-active-front/). So chances are.....most units struggle regardless of how you cut it. And this is absent from the analysis.

What follows are a bunch of quick statements, mostly reporting on Kremlin thoughts on a ceasefire, and locations for frontline advance. Here are the standouts in their statements.

Recent Ukrainian counterattacks may further delay Russian forces’ seizure of Pokrovsk, though the situation in Pokrovsk remains serious and dynamic at this time.
-> "may", "serious and dynamic". Translation: Pokrovsk is about to fall.

Taken together, ISW has done a very professionally written piece. It requires you to have a bit of contextual knowledge to grasp that they are actually talking about some things out loud, albeit deliberately phrased in neutral-scientific terminology, contrasting the sensationalist social media accounts. And in doing so, is a form of persuasion.