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The Barnes Brief: Friday, September 20, 2024
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Art of the Day

Art of the Day: The political cartoon, like its modern manifestation the meme, often best captures in a single image the deeper truths of politics and power, as this populist critique shared amongst the literate and illiterate alike more than a century ago, still captures the nature of Congress’ long loyalty – the donor class that empowers them in office and enriches them out of office.

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Past

  • What Are The Odds:
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Upcoming

Book Recommendation: Three Uses of the Knife by David Mamet, a revelatory book, with brilliant insights on the nature of narrative.  https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/74203.Three_Uses_of_the_Knife

Wisdom of the Day: “Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I’ll show you a crook.” Harry Truman.

The Merits: Top Five Curated Articles from The Barnes Library

1)  Economy: The rent is still too darn high. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/swing-state-renters-earn-17-less-needed-afford-typical-apartment

2)  Politics: A Democrat talks about how the left lost Pennsylvania. https://www.realclearpennsylvania.com/articles/2024/09/19/the_pittsburgh_paradox_could_hand_pa_to_trump_1059597.html

3)  Geopolitics: Biden won’t deliver peace deal for Harris. https://news.antiwar.com/2024/09/19/us-officials-say-there-will-be-no-gaze-ceasefire-deal-before-bidens-term-ends/

4)  History: The first time US government officials met Voodoo. https://www.usmcu.edu/Outreach/Marine-Corps-University-Press/MCH/Marine-Corps-History-Winter-2019/Stability-or-Disruption-The-US-Marine-Occupation-and-the-Voodoo-Trials-in-Haiti-192630/

5)  Culture: State Sponsored Censorship. https://www.racket.news/p/interview-on-unherd-on-state-department

Homework: Top 5 Cases TBD on Sunday

I.              Magic smell searches stopped. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/illinois-supreme-court-cannabis-ruling.pdf

II.           First Amendment in law school. https://www.courthousenews.com/chicago-law-professor-accused-of-racism-asks-seventh-circuit-for-another-chance-to-sue-school/

III.        Adverse possession. https://tncourts.gov/sites/default/files/OpinionsPDFVersion/Majority%20Opinion%20-%20M2021-00883-SC-R11-CV.pdf

IV.         Tim Pool sues Harris campaign. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.wvnd.58194/gov.uscourts.wvnd.58194.187.0.pdf

V.           Fighting Arbitration. See Closing Argument. 

Closing Argument: Compulsory Arbitration Contradicts the Constitution 

  • Forced arbitration fundamentally denies Americans their carefully constructed method of dispute resolution, and, as important, their right to petition the government for redress of grievances, their right to trial by jury, and their right to a public forum with public officials appointed by elected officials under Presidential appointment and Senate confirmation.
  • Trials conducted in secret by officials elected and appointed by the adversarial party -- like arbitration -- mirrors the abusive British Crown: “Colonial administrators routinely steered enforcement actions out of local courts and into vice-admiralty tribunals where they thought they would win more often. These tribunals lacked juries. They lacked truly independent judges. And the procedures materially differed from those available in everyday common-law courts.” Sec. & Exch. Comm'n v. Jarkesy, 144 S. Ct. 2117, 2142 (2024) (Gorsuch, J., concurring).  
  • The Constitution promises public trials and transparent legal process with both a common law and Constitutional “right of access to the courts,” as a “fundamental right” protected by the substantive right to Due Process. Ringgold-Lockhart v. Cnty. of Los Angeles, 761 F.3d 1057, 1061–62 (9th Cir. 2014). In particular, “[a] fair trial in a fair tribunal is a basic requirement of due process” and “our system of law has always endeavored to prevent even the probability of unfairness.” In re Murchison, 349 U.S. 133, 136 (1955).
  • While the Supreme Court justified mandatory arbitration by stating that it will “decline to indulge the presumption that the parties and arbitral body conducting a proceeding will be unable or unwilling to retain competent, conscientious and impartial arbitrators,” Gilmer v. Interstate/Johnson Lane Corp., 500 U.S. 20, 30 (1991), there is no need to presume bias: it has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. “[T]he arbitration system is an inferior system of justice, structured without due process, rules of evidence, accountability of judgment and rules of law.” Moseley, Hallgarten, Estabrook, & Weeden, Inc. v. Ellis, 849 F.2d 264, 268 (7th Cir.1988).
  • In Gilmer, the Court sustained compulsory New York Stock Exchange Arbitration because “[t]he NYSE rules, however, do require that all arbitration awards be in writing, and that the awards contain the names of the parties, a summary of the issues in controversy, and description of the award issued” and also that its “discovery provisions, which allow for document production, information requests, depositions, and subpoena” were not shown to be deficient. Id. at 31–32. That is not the case under the AAA Employment Rules. The names of the parties may not be disclosed without their express consent. American Arbitration Association, Employment Arbitration Rules and Mediation Procedures, Rule 39(b) (hereinafter “AAA Employment Arbitration Rules”). While the rules require “written reasons for the award” there is no requirement of a summary of the issues in controversy. Id. at Rule 39(c). “[C]onformity to legal rules of evidence shall not be necessary” and the arbitrator has absolute “discretion [to] direct the order of proof, bifurcate proceedings, exclude cumulative or irrelevant testimony or other evidence, and direct the parties to focus their presentations on issues the decision of which could dispose of all or part of the case.” Id. at Rule 30. The AAA’s Employment Arbitration rules completely jettison these important features of our legal system in exchange for secretive, star-chamber proceedings conducted at the sole discretion of arbitrators who are subject to the whims of employment by large, corporate actors.
  • Unlike Article III judges, appointed by the President, confirmed by the Senate and protected by lifetime tenure, arbitrators depend on their clientele to select them for future arbitrations, and thus repeat, corporate actors have undue influence on the outcome of arbitration. Article III § 1; see also Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist No. 78 (explaining that the “independence of the judges is equally requisite to guard the Constitution and the rights of individuals” from external encroachment). In fact, “[p]eriodical appointments, however regulated, or by whomsoever made, would, in some way or other, be fatal to [a judge's] necessary independence.” Stern v. Marshall, 564 U.S. 462, 501 (2011) (quoting The Federalist No. 78, at 471) (second alteration in original).
  • By contrast to the Constitution's Article III, the arbitration rules expressly provide that it is the large, corporate employers who provide most of the arbitrator’s payment, not the employees. American Arbitration Association, Employment/Workplace Fee Schedule: Costs of Arbitration, (amended January 15, 2024), incentivizing arbitrators to reward the corporate interests that will reselect them. Contra 28 U.S.C. § 455 (requiring judicial disqualification when there is a “financial interest . . . or any other interest that could be substantially affected by the outcome of the proceeding”).  Studies by the Stanford and Harvard Business Schools found that well-informed, repeat customers consistently successfully select arbitrators who rule in their favor. Indeed, “arbitrators display a systematic bias in awarding claims” and “industry friendly arbitrators are selected to more cases.” Egan et al., Arbitration with Uninformed Consumers, Stanford Business Working Paper No. 3768, at 36 (Oct. 2018) (hereinafter Egan, Arbitration (Stanford)). Furthermore, they found that there is a direct, negative correlation between the size of an arbitrator’s first award to an employee and the number of times the arbitrator is selected to arbitrate in the future. Id. at 56. Even ignoring the systems’ tendency to select pro-industry arbitrators, “the average arbitrator gives out an award that is 3.5 percentage points lower than what she believes is fair because doing so increases her probability of being selected for arbitration.” Egan, et al. Arbitration With Uninformed Consumers, Harvard Business School Finance Working Paper No. 19-046, (May 11, 2021) at 29 (hereinafter Egan, Arbitration (Harvard)). Indeed, the current system “induces extreme competition between arbitrators resulting in all arbitrators being maximally industry friendly.” Egan, Arbitration (Stanford) at 4. In other words, if an arbitrator wants to get repeat business, they need to rule in favor of large, industry insiders. Thus, even when both parties are well informed, “[t]he whole pool would still have a pro-industry tilt because the ex-ante chances of arbitrators being struck by an informed consumer are essentially zero.” Egan, Arbitration (Harvard) at 30. As a rule, the larger, more informed party is more likely to successfully select arbitrators which are biased in their favor. Egan, Arbitration (Stanford), at 3. The more strikes that parties have, the more power the larger, more informed party has. Indeed, limiting the number of strikes available to parties (as was done in the FINRA arbitration rules) “significantly decreased the probability that industry friendly arbitrators are selected.” Id. at 17. However, under AAA rules, each party has unlimited strikes. AAA Employment Rules, R. 12. Even in the FINRA context, where there are a limited number of strikes,  “industry-friendly arbitrators are 50% more likely to be chosen from the list than their consumer-friendly counterparts.” Egan, Arbitration (Stanford) at 3. This is as compared to the already pro-industry baseline. Large corporations like Red Hat are systemically benefitted: they can winnow out arbitrators until only the most biased remain.
  • This best summarize the problem: an American employee has a higher chance of being hit by lightning than winning an employment arbitration dispute with a big corporation. On average, 56 employees yearly receive awards, whereas approximately 400 Americans are annually struck by lightning. Compare American Institute For Justice, The Truth About Forced Arbitration at 7, 15 (finding that only 2.3% of all employees succeed in arbitration under AAA rules) with Jenson & Vincent, Lightning Injuries, StatPearls (February 19, 2019).
  • Separate from the Jury Trial and Due Process violations, the First Amendment demands that citizens have “[t]he right of access to the courts” which “is one aspect of the right of petition.”  BE & K Const. Co. v. N.L.R.B., 536 U.S. 516, 525 (2002) (quoting California Motor Transp. Co. v. Trucking Unlimited, 404 U.S. 508, 510 (1972)). Mandatory arbitration demands that American citizens waive their First Amendment rights as part of an otherwise ordinary employment relationship. A waiver of First Amendment rights “must be freely given and shown by ‘clear and compelling’ evidence.” Janus v. Am. Fed'n of State, Cnty., & Mun. Emps., Council 31, 585 U.S. 878, 930 (2018), which is rarely the case in take-it-or-leave-it arbitration clauses.
  • Finally, arbitration divests Article III courts of their essential ability to review legal issues: arbitrator awards may only be reviewed for “manifest disregard” of the law, which is a largely toothless standard. Indeed, the FAA effectively creates a “phalanx of non-Article III tribunals equipped to handle the entire business of the Article III courts without any Article III supervision or control and without evidence of valid and specific legislative necessities.” 
  • As the Supreme Court explained, “Article III could neither serve its purpose in the system of checks and balances nor preserve the integrity of judicial decision making if the other branches of the Federal Government could confer the Government's ‘judicial Power’ on entities outside Article III.” Id. at 2314 (quoting Stern v. Marshall, 564 U.S. 462, 484 (2011)). The FAA has effectively stripped away all the “essential attributes,” Stern, 564 U.S. at 501, of the judicial power. Now, the vast majority of employment disputes are decided by pseudo-judge arbitrators whose findings of law can only be overturned for “manifest disregard” and whose findings of fact are “completely irrational.”  Aspic Eng'g & Constr. Co. v. ECC Centcom Constructors LLC, 913 F.3d 1162, 1166 (9th Cir. 2019). “‘Neither erroneous legal conclusions nor unsubstantiated factual findings justify federal court review’ of an arbitral award under the FAA.” Id. (quoting Bosack v. Soward, 586 F.3d 1096, 1102 (9th Cir. 2009)). Indeed, the FAA converts Article III into rubber-stamps who “‘must’ confirm an arbitration award” outside of almost impossibly narrow circumstances. Id.
  • Compelled, coerced arbitration contradicts the dispute resolution process provided for and protected by the Constitution. The Constitution preserves the “judicial power of the United States” within Article III courts, not privately enriched arbitrators. Efficiency is the excuse of the lazy jurist, not the Constitutionally honest tribunal. If efficiency were the Constitution, it would be more efficient for police to simply intrude into people’s homes without a warrant or probable cause. If efficiency were the Constitution, Article III courts should mirror the AAA’s arbitration rules and dispense with the Rules of Evidence, the Sixth Amendment, and the Seventh Amendment. The Constitution cannot “become nothing more than a game, where the Government need only identify some slight advantage to the public” so that it can trample over Constitutional rights. Jarkesy, 144 S. Ct. at 2139.
  • Compulsory arbitration offends Article III’s careful construction of dispute resolution proceeding with impartial decision-makers, transparent adjudication, appellate review, evidentiary rules, and trial by jury, protected by the the First Amendment right to petition the government for redress of grievances, the Fifth Amendment right to due process of law, and the Seventh Amendment right to trial by jury. Privately enriched, secretive, star chamber proceedings conflicted by their corporate loyalties is as abhorrent to the liberties and rights of the people as the vice-admiralty courts that triggered the American revolution. A Constitutionally honest adjudicative process empowers ordinary jurors and public trials not bought-off secret arbitrations.

 

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Here's an update on my latest with my Harris supporting neighbors. I went over to have a glass of wine with them and catch them up on the trip. I was wearing my new RFK shirt which reads, "There has been no time in history when the people censoring free speech were the good guys." Things turned to politics and I spoke my mind because I'm tired of biting my lip. She said, no, no, we don't need to talk politics. I told her I would speak my mind before leaving. I told her I was actually quite scared of a Harris administration. I asked her if she liked her house and if she was equipped to deal with paying tax on unrealized capital gains. She brought up Springfield and I said that was quite a thing for a town of 40,000 to have to absorb 20,000 migrants, being evicted by the mayor who is making more money off the Haitians who are being funded by the government. I told her I'd seen a lot of Russian and Chinese history, and that you can vote socialism in, but you have to ...

Questions for Bourbon w/ Barnes: Thursday, September 19, 2024

Top topics: Democratic delusion, ballot harvest without crops, fighting arbitration. Ask questions in replies and answering live at 9ish eastern tonight...

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, September 6, 2024

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Past

  • What Are The Odds:
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  • Barnes Brothers:
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Upcoming

Art of the Day: A favorite pastime when traveling across the country unearths the simple beauty of the simple churches that crisscross the countryside across America. With the requisite fondness for the ornate luxury of old-world Masons in the Catholic churches of Europe, the counterpoint of unvarnished wooden structures for ordinary folks gathering to fellowship with one another celebrates a populist side of America standing in small towns across the landscape.

Wisdom of the Day: A population of freeholders and farmers is the “safest depository of republican liberty.” James Madison.

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, September 6, 2024
  • Note: A new, more concise, curated Barnes Brief to focus attention on a more selective exploration of substantial subjects.

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Art of the Day: What we need to be in embrace of V for Vendetta’s message of the power of the individual to bespeak a revolution. “Everybody is special. Everybody. Everybody is a hero.” That is when “people shouldn’t be afraid of their government. Governments should be afraid of their people.”

Wisdom of the Day: “Our masters have not heard the people’s voice for generations and it is much, much louder than they care to remember.” V for Vendetta.

Book Recommendation: My Deep State book list (in progress). https://www.goodreads.com/review/list/130921670-robert-barnes?ref=nav_mybooks&shelf=deep-state

The Merits: Top Five Curated Articles from The Barnes Library

  1. Economy: Americans lose out in jobs. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-replacement-job-shock-13-million-native-born-americans-just-lost-their-jobs-replaced
  2. Politics: Kennedy Trump alliance. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-can-make-america-healthy-again-rfk-jr-reforms-chronic-disease-crisis-a9b4b8c0?st=4w601dlfq6vln1d
  3. Geopolitics: Macron’s gamble fails. https://www.courthousenews.com/france-braces-for-right-wing-government-in-spite-of-election-results/
  4. History: Hitler’s need for war.
  5. Culture: Hope in Hollywood.

Homework: Top 5 Cases TBD on Sunday

  1. As forecast: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-sentencing-delay-hush-money-case-new-york/
  2. They forget: the last Russiagate hoax. https://www.axios.com/2020/03/16/justice-department-russian-trolls-internet-research-agency
  3. FARA too far. https://digitalcommons.law.uw.edu/wlr/vol96/iss2/11/
  4. Musk vs. Media Matters. https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/legaldocs/mopaqagdapa/X%20v%20Media%20Matters%2020240829.pdf
  5. Inalienability of Publicity. https://scholarship.law.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3443&context=faculty_scholarship

Closing Argument: The Right to Privacy Doesn’t End at Courthouse

From a recent brief in federal court of mine.

Americans do not forfeit their Constitutional rights to protected activity and all privacy merely because they also assert their Constitutional right to petition the court for redress of grievances. An employer does not get to use their own prior religious discrimination to again discriminate against their ex-employee in the very case seeking remedy for the past religious discrimination. A case of religious discrimination does not authorize federal courts to conduct heresy trials as the new Inquisitor of Appellant’s life history, invasively scrolling through Appellant’s sexual history, psychological counseling, medical records, religious affiliations, political activities, and intimate conversations throughout their life to see if the court approves.

“Inviolability of privacy in group association" is "indispensable to preservation of freedom of association, particularly where a group espouses dissident beliefs." Id. Indeed, “it is hardly a novel perception that compelled disclosure of affiliation with groups engaged in advocacy may constitute as effective a restraint on freedom of association as the forms of governmental action” NAACP v. Ala., 357 U.S. 449, 462 (1958). Revealing such information exposes her associates to risk of “economic reprisal, loss of employment, threat of physical coercion, and other manifestations of public hostility.” NAACP, 357 U.S. at 462.

Federal Courts recognize a constitutionally based right of privacy that can be raised in response to discovery requests. See Breed v. United States Dist. Ct. for Northern District, 542 F.2d 1114, 1116 (9th Cir.1976) (balancing the invasion of minor's privacy rights against the court's need for ward files); Johnson by Johnson v. Thompson, 971 F.2d 1487, 1497 (10th Cir.1992), cert. den. 507 U.S. 910, 113 S.Ct. 1255, 122 L.Ed.2d 654 (1993) (denying discovery of names of participants in a medical study due to privacy interests of the individual participants). Guthrey v. California Dep't of Corr. & Rehab., 1:10-cv-02177-AWI-BAM, 14 (E.D. Cal. Jun. 27, 2012) ("the initiation of a lawsuit does not, by itself, grant plaintiffs the right to rummage unnecessarily and unchecked through the private affairs of anyone they choose. A balance must be struck.") Buckley v. Valeo, 424 U.S. 1, 64, 96 S.Ct. 612 (1976) ("[W]e have repeatedly found that compelled disclosure, in itself, can seriously infringe on privacy of association and belief guaranteed by the First Amendment").

"A party who objects to a discovery request as an infringement of the party's First Amendment rights is in essence asserting a First Amendment privilege." Perry v. Schwarzenegger, 591 F3d 1126, 1140 (9th Cir. 2009); See also, Black Panther Party v. Smith, 661 F.2d 1243, 1264 (D.C. Cir.1981), cert. granted and vacated as moot, 458 U.S. 1118, 102 S.Ct. 3505, 73 L.Ed.2d 1381 (1982); see also Fed. R. Civ. P. 26(b)(1) ("Parties may obtain discovery regarding any nonprivileged matter that is relevant to any party's claim or defense[.]") (emphasis added). "Importantly, the party seeking the discovery must show that the information sought is highly relevant to the claims or defenses in the litigation—a more demanding standard of relevance than that under FRCP 26(b)(1).("The request must also be carefully tailored to avoid unnecessary interference with protected activities, and the information must be otherwise unavailable.") Guthrey v. California Dep't of Corr. & Rehab., 1:10-cv-02177-AWI-BAM, 14-15 (E.D. Cal. Jun. 27, 2012) (“substantial privacy interest in his subjective religious views, as well as the identity of the individuals he shares those views with - whether in a place of worship or in casual conservation.”). Critically, discovery cannot be “used to gain access to unfettered inquisitions into an individual's most private and intimate religious views” because” a "chilling impact on religious associational rights would result.” Guthrey v. California Dep't of Corr. & Rehab., 1:10-cv-02177-AWI-BAM, 16 (E.D. Cal. Jun. 27, 2012).

Under the Pennsylvania constitution, the right to privacy is an “inherent right of mankind” enshrined in “Article 1, Section 1.” Pennsylvania State Educ. Ass'n v. Commonwealth Dep't of Cmty. & Econ. Dev., 148 A.3d 142, 150 (Pa. 2016). “Article 1, Section 8 [of the Pennsylvania constitution], . . . is meant to embody a strong notion of privacy, carefully safeguarded in this Commonwealth for the past two centuries.”Com. v. Edmunds, 586 A.2d 887, 897 (Pa. 1991). “[C]itizens (as persons, unrelated to any subjective expectations) have the ‘right to immunity of the person,’ the ‘right to be let alone,’ and the ‘right to one's personality.’” Pennsylvania State Educ. Ass'n, 148 A.3d at 150. The right to privacy is “‘[t]he greatest joy that can be experienced by mortal man . . .in small as well as in big things. Of all the precious privileges and prerogatives in the crown of happiness which every American citizen has the right to wear, none shines with greater luster and imparts more innate satisfaction and soulful contentment.’” Id. at 151 (quoting Com. v. Murray, 223 A.2d 102, 109 (Pa. 1966)).

The broad right of privacy under the Pennsylvania constitution is not even limited only to government actors, for if “private intermeddlers may, without legal responsibility” intrude into the right to privacy, “then all constitutional guarantees become meaningless aggregation of words, as disconnected as a broken necklace whose beads have scattered on the floor.” Com. v. Murray, 223 A.2d at 110.

In examining the scope of the right to privacy under the Pennsylvania constitution, courts “balance the public interest in disclosure of the requested information against the ‘individual's right to privacy and personal security.’” Pennsylvania State Educ. Ass'n, 148 A.3d at 154 (quoting Sapp Roofing Co. v. Sheet Metal Workers' Int'l Ass'n, Loc. Union No. 12, 713 A.2d 627, 630 (199 8)). This right to privacy is not limited to the home, but also to “to the doctor's office, the hospital, the hotel room, or as is otherwise required to safeguard the right to privacy involved in such intimate relationships.” In re "B", 394 A.2d 419, 424 (Pa. 1978). Indeed, one of the objects of the right to privacy is “to protect an individual from revealing matters which could impugn his character and subject him to ridicule or persecution,” such as mental health, sexual history, and HIV diagnoses. Stenger v. Lehigh Valley Hasp. Ctr., 609 A.2d 796, 800 (Pa. 1992). Thus, there is no “general power to inquire into private affairs and to compel disclosures but only with such limited right of inquiry as is pertinent.” Annenberg, 2 A.2d at 617-18. Subpoenas “commanding plaintiffs to produce” “a mass of books and papers in order that there might be a search through them to gather evidence” are “void in that they do not show that the demands therein are germane to the inquiry.” Id. at 618.

Rather than force heresy trials on those discriminated against petitioning the court for redress of greivance, it is time to restore the right of privacy from the prying, spying eyes of the judiciary. 

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, August 23, 2024

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Book Recommendation: My co-favorite book as a kid. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1976848.To_Seek_a_Newer_World

Art of the Day: The kaleidoscope of colliding colors in this Hindu temple so expressive that locals believe its waters inside heal chronic illness. The celebratory style of the temple manifests in more than its yoga style elephants and happy bellies, but best felt in the brilliance and brightness of its colors. Feeling more like a circus of joy than the more austere architecture of a later age. Indeed, it hard to look at this, and not smile, and in that, it reflects the divinity of the art’s center of attention, a healing power of its own.

Wisdom of the Day: “Only those who dare to fail greatly can achieve greatly.” Robert Kennedy.

Introduction: Top 10 Headlines of the Week

  1. Fed reverses
  2. DNC ends with a whisper
  3. Beyonce no-show
  4. Behind the DNC curtains
  5. DNC shenanigans lead RFK to consider Trump
  6. Something that never happens to Amos Miller: food recalls
  7. Literally cremating the evidence
  8. Gabbard spying inquiry
  9. Rising global risk
  10. Housing problems  

*Bonus: Aliens?

The Evidence: Top Twenty Articles from The Barnes Library

  1. DNC Bore. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/protests-pandering-past-presidents-no-policies-summing-2024-dnc-2-words-not-trump
  2. DNC fails to reach working class. https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/democrats-are-super-happy-working
  3. RFK impact. https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/frihow-rfk-jrs-campaign-could-end-and-who-benefits
  4. The Washington exemplar. https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/the-washington-primary-points-toward-another-nailbiter
  5. DC: the mafia of the mentally ill & morally corrupt. https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/end-of-hoaxes/
  6. Harris’ unconstitutional tax plan. https://www.heritage.org/taxes/commentary/another-unconstitutional-wealth-tax
  7. Ukranian insanity. https://korybko.substack.com/p/kievs-plan-to-ban-the-ukrainian-orthodox
  8. Global inflation. https://www.cfr.org/tracker/global-inflation-tracker
  9. Supply shock, price shock.
  10. Lockdown inflation. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/supply-shocks-were-most-important-source-inflation-2021-23-raising

*Bonus: Alien life. https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/Interstellar_Expedition.pdf

 

Homework: Cases TBD on Sunday

  1. Trump New York. https://media.aflegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/22164831/Filed-Motion-and-Brief-Combined.pdf
  2. Kennedy censorship case proceeds.
  3. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.lawd.198699/gov.uscourts.lawd.198699.56.0.pdf
  4. Elections at SCOTUS. https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24A164/322427/20240814124312919_24A164%20Amicus%20Brief.pdf
  5. Alaska elections. https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/2024-08-22-Order.pdf
  6. Vaccine coercion. https://www.vermontjudiciary.org/sites/default/files/documents/op23-237.pdf
  7. Amazon antitrust. https://www.dccourts.gov/sites/default/files/2024-08/DC%20v.%20Amazon%2022-CV-657.pdf
  8. Twitter v. Jack Smith. https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-1264/311993/20240530144316325_23-xxxx%20-%20X%20Corp.%20v.%20United%20States%20-%20cert.%20petition.pdf
  9. IBM Employment. https://media.aflegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20173246/ECF001_Dill-v.-IBM_Complaint.pdf
  10. DEI Insurance. https://media.aflegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20100458/download-2.pdf
  11. Machine gun dismissal. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25060041-ruling-in-machine-gun-case
  12. Baby food autism. https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/23/23-40197-CV0.pdf

Closing Argument: RFK Effect

  • If RFK drops out, the effect is three-fold: first, RFK’s voters other choices in the election; second, messaging impact on the campaigns; and third, down-ballot impact of turnout impacted thereby.
  • My analysis if RFK stays in as follows on the 2024 Presidential vote:

                                 Trump 75 million

                                 Harris 72 million

                                 Kennedy 6 million

                                Other 2 million

  • My analysis if RFK drops out and either supports Trump, attacks Harris and/or Trump takes up issues important to RFK voters.

                               Trump 78 million

                               Harris 73 million

                               Other 2 million

  • The electoral impact moves Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania into Trump likely states, and moves New Mexico, Maine and Minnesota into tossups. The down-ballot effect moves the Senate into 85% chance of going Republican and the same with the House, as the drop-out voters were those leaning heavily Democratic down-ballot.
  • The key for Trump to capitalize on RFK dropping out is to target RFK voters on issues of importance to them. We polled this precise set of questions for 1776 Law Center in the summer. A recap may be helpful.
  • 29% of voters told us there were seriously considering voting for Kennedy for President. Amongst voters under 40, this number rose to 40%. Amongst black voters, this rose to 35% and amongst Hispanic voters, this rose to 40%. Amongst true Independents (no lean toward either party), this number rose to 36%. Amongst those who scored high on populism, this rose to 39%. Amongst high school voters, this rose to 35%. Amongst students, this rose to 39%. Amongst union members, this rose to 38%. Amongst parents with school-age kids, this rose to 37%. Amongst urban voters, this rose to 37%. Amongst New England voters, this rose to 36%. Amongst likely, but not certain, to vote, this rose to 40%. Amongst voters that skipped recent elections or were new voters, this rose to 42%. Of note, of those prior voters considering Kennedy, more voted for Biden than Trump.
  • We dug down into what issues drove these Kennedy-considering voters. Two of the top issues were Medical Freedom, Food Freedom and opposition to foreign war. They reported the highest rates of voters who believed “Americans should be allowed to buy food directly from farmers without getting government permission” and considered corporate-produced processed industrialized, commercialized, monopolized food laced with chemicals and made like Soylent Green to be deeply unhealthy and undesired compared to their favorite local farmers market and neighborhood food vendor. They also reported the highest rate of voters who believed “Drug companies should not be immune from suit if their vaccines cause injury” because they also reported the highest rates of discrimination, disability and death to they or their loved ones from the Covid19 vaccine. They also reported deep levels of dissatisfaction with the current conditions of the economy and their own prospects in it. Lastly, they strongly opposed funding foreign wars like Ukraine with American tax dollars.
  • RFK dropping out would free these voters to back Trump, but their Democratic ancestry and GOP skepticism mean it is up to Trump to persuade them why they should embrace his candidacy. For that, the easiest ticket is to embrace the two biggest issues of distinct impact for them: restore the family farmer to the heart of the American food supply and remedy the vaccine discrimination and disabilities with real reform of our Big Pharma protection racket laws. Food freedom and medical freedom are the ticket to a Trump 2024 election outside the margin of fraud.
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