The Barnes Brief: Friday, August 23, 2024
Art of the Day
Schedule: Past & Prospective
- What Are The Odds:
- Friday LIVE: https://sportspicks.locals.com/post/6029351/live-betting-w-barnes-ama
- Saturday Movie: TBD
- Sunday: Law for the People w/ Viva
- Monday: What Are The Odds w/ Baris
- Closing Argument: The RFK Effect
Book Recommendation: My co-favorite book as a kid. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1976848.To_Seek_a_Newer_World
Art of the Day: The kaleidoscope of colliding colors in this Hindu temple so expressive that locals believe its waters inside heal chronic illness. The celebratory style of the temple manifests in more than its yoga style elephants and happy bellies, but best felt in the brilliance and brightness of its colors. Feeling more like a circus of joy than the more austere architecture of a later age. Indeed, it hard to look at this, and not smile, and in that, it reflects the divinity of the art’s center of attention, a healing power of its own.
Wisdom of the Day: “Only those who dare to fail greatly can achieve greatly.” Robert Kennedy.
Introduction: Top 10 Headlines of the Week
- Fed reverses
- DNC ends with a whisper
- Beyonce no-show
- Behind the DNC curtains
- DNC shenanigans lead RFK to consider Trump
- Something that never happens to Amos Miller: food recalls
- Literally cremating the evidence
- Gabbard spying inquiry
- Rising global risk
- Housing problems
*Bonus: Aliens?
The Evidence: Top Twenty Articles from The Barnes Library
- DNC Bore. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/protests-pandering-past-presidents-no-policies-summing-2024-dnc-2-words-not-trump
- DNC fails to reach working class. https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/democrats-are-super-happy-working
- RFK impact. https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/frihow-rfk-jrs-campaign-could-end-and-who-benefits
- The Washington exemplar. https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/the-washington-primary-points-toward-another-nailbiter
- DC: the mafia of the mentally ill & morally corrupt. https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/end-of-hoaxes/
- Harris’ unconstitutional tax plan. https://www.heritage.org/taxes/commentary/another-unconstitutional-wealth-tax
- Ukranian insanity. https://korybko.substack.com/p/kievs-plan-to-ban-the-ukrainian-orthodox
- Global inflation. https://www.cfr.org/tracker/global-inflation-tracker
- Supply shock, price shock.
- Lockdown inflation. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/supply-shocks-were-most-important-source-inflation-2021-23-raising
*Bonus: Alien life. https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/Interstellar_Expedition.pdf
Homework: Cases TBD on Sunday
- Trump New York. https://media.aflegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/22164831/Filed-Motion-and-Brief-Combined.pdf
- Kennedy censorship case proceeds.
- https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.lawd.198699/gov.uscourts.lawd.198699.56.0.pdf
- Elections at SCOTUS. https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24A164/322427/20240814124312919_24A164%20Amicus%20Brief.pdf
- Alaska elections. https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/2024-08-22-Order.pdf
- Vaccine coercion. https://www.vermontjudiciary.org/sites/default/files/documents/op23-237.pdf
- Amazon antitrust. https://www.dccourts.gov/sites/default/files/2024-08/DC%20v.%20Amazon%2022-CV-657.pdf
- Twitter v. Jack Smith. https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-1264/311993/20240530144316325_23-xxxx%20-%20X%20Corp.%20v.%20United%20States%20-%20cert.%20petition.pdf
- IBM Employment. https://media.aflegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20173246/ECF001_Dill-v.-IBM_Complaint.pdf
- DEI Insurance. https://media.aflegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20100458/download-2.pdf
- Machine gun dismissal. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25060041-ruling-in-machine-gun-case
- Baby food autism. https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/23/23-40197-CV0.pdf
Closing Argument: RFK Effect
- If RFK drops out, the effect is three-fold: first, RFK’s voters other choices in the election; second, messaging impact on the campaigns; and third, down-ballot impact of turnout impacted thereby.
- My analysis if RFK stays in as follows on the 2024 Presidential vote:
Trump 75 million
Harris 72 million
Kennedy 6 million
Other 2 million
- My analysis if RFK drops out and either supports Trump, attacks Harris and/or Trump takes up issues important to RFK voters.
Trump 78 million
Harris 73 million
Other 2 million
- The electoral impact moves Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania into Trump likely states, and moves New Mexico, Maine and Minnesota into tossups. The down-ballot effect moves the Senate into 85% chance of going Republican and the same with the House, as the drop-out voters were those leaning heavily Democratic down-ballot.
- The key for Trump to capitalize on RFK dropping out is to target RFK voters on issues of importance to them. We polled this precise set of questions for 1776 Law Center in the summer. A recap may be helpful.
- 29% of voters told us there were seriously considering voting for Kennedy for President. Amongst voters under 40, this number rose to 40%. Amongst black voters, this rose to 35% and amongst Hispanic voters, this rose to 40%. Amongst true Independents (no lean toward either party), this number rose to 36%. Amongst those who scored high on populism, this rose to 39%. Amongst high school voters, this rose to 35%. Amongst students, this rose to 39%. Amongst union members, this rose to 38%. Amongst parents with school-age kids, this rose to 37%. Amongst urban voters, this rose to 37%. Amongst New England voters, this rose to 36%. Amongst likely, but not certain, to vote, this rose to 40%. Amongst voters that skipped recent elections or were new voters, this rose to 42%. Of note, of those prior voters considering Kennedy, more voted for Biden than Trump.
- We dug down into what issues drove these Kennedy-considering voters. Two of the top issues were Medical Freedom, Food Freedom and opposition to foreign war. They reported the highest rates of voters who believed “Americans should be allowed to buy food directly from farmers without getting government permission” and considered corporate-produced processed industrialized, commercialized, monopolized food laced with chemicals and made like Soylent Green to be deeply unhealthy and undesired compared to their favorite local farmers market and neighborhood food vendor. They also reported the highest rate of voters who believed “Drug companies should not be immune from suit if their vaccines cause injury” because they also reported the highest rates of discrimination, disability and death to they or their loved ones from the Covid19 vaccine. They also reported deep levels of dissatisfaction with the current conditions of the economy and their own prospects in it. Lastly, they strongly opposed funding foreign wars like Ukraine with American tax dollars.
- RFK dropping out would free these voters to back Trump, but their Democratic ancestry and GOP skepticism mean it is up to Trump to persuade them why they should embrace his candidacy. For that, the easiest ticket is to embrace the two biggest issues of distinct impact for them: restore the family farmer to the heart of the American food supply and remedy the vaccine discrimination and disabilities with real reform of our Big Pharma protection racket laws. Food freedom and medical freedom are the ticket to a Trump 2024 election outside the margin of fraud.
