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The Scott Horton Show: Douglas Macgregor On Ukraine, China, and the Military Industrial Complex 2023.03.07

This is my summary of the interview. It is not a transcript. All comments are from the Colonel unless marked by SH (Scott Horton).

In the last year, Ukraine has suffered 200k soldiers killed, 200-300k wounded. Russia has had 20-25k soldiers killed, 75k wounded. These are estimates based on open source reports. The huge differential in casualties reflects the 10-1 advantage the Russians have in stand-off attack weapons (artillery, missiles, etc.).

Russia now occupies 22-23% of Ukraine. The land it occupies represents 90% of the Ukrainian GDP and most of its industry. This area is historically Russian.

Russia started the war with a small force. It believed that its attack would force Ukraine and the West to the negotiating table. After several months, Russia realized that the USA would not agree to negotiations. It then began preparations to fight a high-end conventional war. This led to a call-up of reserves and opening up factory production of conventional weapons. Forecast was for a winter offensive to start once the ground froze solid.

The winter in Ukraine was short, about 2-3 weeks. This was not enough to freeze the ground solid. It is now mud season in Ukraine, making transport very difficult. The Colonel predicted it would take all of March and April to dry. This suggests the Russian offensive could start in May-June timeframe. The Colonel thinks that the offensive will seek to cut off the Ukrainian border with Poland.

No one in DC will admit that they are wrong about the war in Ukraine.

SH DC is now urging we send weapons to Ukraine to hit Crimea.

“Delusional.” We have sent many weapons to Ukraine, none have been game changers. There is now talk of send F-16 fighters to Ukraine. Two Ukrainian pilots are reportedly in USA for F-16 flight training. If Ukraine gets F-16s, they will use contractors to fly them. We must expect F-16 losses to Russian air defenses, which are excellent. This could lead Russia to attack Ukraine rear areas, like Poland. So far, Russia has exercised great restraint with the Ukraine rear areas.

NATO is very divided, with many member countries feeling betrayed by USA decisions and guidance. Europe now sees Russian forces massing on the edge of Europe. Will Germany break first? The German Prime Minister is in trouble. Polling in Germany shows 70-80% want the Foreign Minister to resign after she said Germany was at war with Russia in Ukraine. A no confidence vote in Germany is certain to happen, but the timing is difficult to predict. When the crack comes in NATO, it will be dramatic.

NATO is also very weak. It cannot deliver the equipment promised to Ukraine. News reports claim that a German Leopard tank sent to Ukraine was captured. And its Polish crew was captured. This happened near Bakhmut.

The Ukrainian press are reporting on conditions in the front at Bakhmut. The Kyiv Independent said that Ukrainian front-line troops have a 30-70% chance of making it back alive. The same article reported that Ukraine is running out of ammo. The Colonel notes that Ukraine is conscripting teenagers and old men and sending them into battle with little training.

Everyone underestimated the ammo use in the Ukraine war and the level of casualties in the war. The effectiveness of weapon systems was overestimated. A collapse is clearly coming. What will happen then?

SH DC is saying that if Ukraine collapses, then we can replicate the Russian occupation of Afghanistan.

Everyone misjudged the Ukraine situation. Russian started the war with the plan of negotiations leading to implementation of the Minsk Accords. A year later, Russia is saying if you want war, here it comes. But the weather did not cooperate. Russia will wait for the dry season, and then the movement will begin. Until that time, Russia will constantly hit Ukrainian front lines with heavy bombardments, causing many casualties.

Russia will end the war by marching to the Polish border. The Colonel’s supposition is that when the Russians close on the Dnieper River, Europe will say enough. If the war continues, how long before it spills over to Poland and other NATO countries?

SH Why is the China threat being pushed by DC?

It is a sign that DC is realizing that Ukraine is lost and it is time to change the subject. People in the USA must realize that China is not going to invade the USA or invade Taiwan.

SH Mearsheimer has predicted that the Biden Administration will escalate in Ukraine.

The US Army would be lucky to scrape together 50k combat troops on the ground in Ukraine. It won’t happen. The US Navy could intervene, but would take heavy losses. Russians have submarines and would use them on US Navy warships. Russia could also attack shipping in the North Atlantic, which would end the ground war very quickly. Expect DC to change the subject. If USA does escalate, then NATO will split, new governments would form in Europe, and the new governments would ignore the USA. Instead, the USA will change the subject and turn to China.

SH What about China sending fentanyl to the USA through Mexico?

China sends ingredients to Mexico for fentanyl. It is the Mexican drug cartels that make the fentanyl and ship it across the open border into the USA. The obvious fix is to close the open border with Mexico.

SH USA has increased the opium supply in SE Asia over the last 20 years. Turnabout by China is predictable.

China is an attractive scapegoat. Who sent industry to China? It started under Reagan, and has continued under all the Presidents since then. Our ruling class sold us out.

China acutely remembers the opium wars of the 19th Century. The Royal Navy forced China ports to unload opium. China was powerless to stop this. They have not forgotten this.

We need to compete economically with China. It makes no sense to wage war with China over things we allowed to happen in the USA. We need to take action. We need to understand that the Military Industrial Complex (MIC) is a massive money machine.

SH Conservatives like to play the tough guy role, and urge us to stop The Yellow Peril from China. But here you are, one of the toughest guys around, saying, “Come on.”

I’m not sure I am that influential. It is OK to not believe The Yellow Peril narrative, and to question USA foreign policy. War with China is easily avoided. We need to look inward, and defend the American people. We need to stop offensive attacks on other countries.

SH With the fall of the USSR, it put the USA in charge of the world. It gave the USA a chance to set up a unipolar world before other countries in the world got rich. Now, 30 years later, Americans won’t accept that other countries got rich and it is no longer a unipolar world.

The USA cannot be the dominate power all over the world. You are right. There are elements in the DC elites, such as the neo-cons, who believe in permanent revolution around the world. What we need to do is to consolidate our industries and take care of the USA people. This is not part of the money machine that is the MIC. A major bankruptcy is coming. It is like the 2008 financial crisis, only worse.

SH Agree. The collapse of the money/banking system will save us from WW3.

We need to do business with other countries peacefully. We need a long-term perspective, with devotion to our country. There is lots of anger now, we will see how it plays out politically. The two major political parties are the same, we need a third force to make genuine change.

SH The legacy media talk of the MIC as a debunked conspiracy theory. Your view?

Most military types follow orders and do their best with the weapons they are given. Decisions are made at a high level for weapons, treating weapons as a money pit. Right decisions do not flow from this. An example is the M1 Abrams tank. The gas turbine engine in this tank runs out of fuel quickly. It has a huge heat signature that satellites can read. It needs the excellent diesel engine used in the Leopard tank. But it has not been changed. People are on a runaway train as politicians and 3-4 star generals and admirals make decisions. Or, decisions are not made and the defense contractors build things on their own. Eisenhower was right about the MIC, but he did not anticipate how badly it would turn out.

SH Ron Paul often remarks that we get the government we deserve. We need a consensus to rise up to stop this.

Agree. The Russian population now wants blood in Ukraine. We are fortunate that Putin has exercised restraint in Ukraine.

Popular sentiment does make a difference. Chaos from economic issues will drive changes. People will still want to eat, to heat their homes, and to drive their car.

SH But the Biden Administration is the Obama team. We have to remove these people.

Agree.

SH How big is the threat of nuclear war?

It is possible, but unlikely. Russians do not want a nuclear war. They will only go nuclear if they are attacked by nuclear weapons, or have solid evidence that a nuclear strike is imminent on Russia.

USA Secretary of State Blinken understands nuclear weapons are the ultimate nightmare to avoid at all costs. There is no evidence that the Defense Department want a war with Russia. General Milley made an honest comment a few weeks back. He said that the Ukrainian military was on the ropes and it was time for a negotiated agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The White House told him to shut up and he now repeats the official narrative. We need an off-ramp for the Ukraine conflict, and we need it quickly. The longer we wait, the more the risks multiply.

Russia is in the driver’s seat now. We are not. It will get ugly for NATO. The future will not be like the past, we cannot do a linear projection of current trends to understand what is coming. We are at an inflection point for the planet earth.

https://scotthortonshow.substack.com/p/douglas-macgregor-on-ukraine-china#details

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Saturday, August 1, 2026 Chattanooga, TN
11-Noon Check-in (brunch & snacks)
Noon-1 Robert Barnes Law Center Cases & New Policies for 2026 & coming in 2027
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The Barnes Brief: Friday, May 1, 2026

 

 

I. INTRODUCTION 

A. Art of the Week

  • A symphony of cigar smoke, whiskey in the air, leather comfort awaiting, all inviting into a conversation w/ either oneself or fellow travelers, where the lyrics of the malt dance with the warmth of the tobacco, in a tradition as old as both. 

B. Recommendation of the Week

C. Wisdom of the Week

  • “All human beings are members of one frame, Since all, at first, from the same essence came. When time afflicts a limb with pain, The other limbs at rest cannot remain. If thou feel not for other’s misery, A human being is no name for thee.”  Persian poet Sa’adi: 

D. Appearances

II. THE EVIDENCE

  • *NOTE: A reminder: links are NOT endorsements of the authors or their interpretation of events, but intended to expand our library of understanding as well as expose ideas of distinct perspective to our own. 

A. Barnes Library: Curated Weekly Articles

  1. Baris: worst poll ever for Trump. https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/national-mood-worsens-for-republicans-in-april-2026-national-poll/
  2. Gatekeeping errors of the past. https://www.katytalento.com/p/confessions-of-a-white-house-public
  3. Welders rise. https://unherd.com/2026/05/goodbye-information-age/?edition=us
  4. AI doubts. https://prospect.org/2026/05/01/subsidize-build-export-repeat-ai-stack-national-security/
  5. Dems left platform for 2026. https://prospect.org/2026/04/29/congressional-democrats-progressive-caucus-unveils-affordability-contract-with-america/

 *Bonus: Beds for those without. https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/6500-volunteers-build-10k-beds-in-24-hours-in-north-carolina/

B. Best of the Board: Five Fun Posts of the Week

  1. Memeatic magic. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7897040/title
  2. Truth. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7897203/title
  3. Losing touch. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7897081/not-a-fan-of-erika-kirk-but-i-find-myself-appalled-by-erikas-recent-treatment-at-don-jrs-fiancees
  4. Local warnings. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7895761/our-gas-today-in-northeast-ohio-is-4-99-up-from-about-3-60-last-week-how-long-and-how-high-can
  5. Comedic wisdom. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7893712/title

*Bonus: Beauty in black & white. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7895352/edinburgh-scotland

C. Homework: Cases of the Week for Sunday

  1. Comey indicted. https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1438481/dl
  2. Covid indictment. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mdd.603873/gov.uscourts.mdd.603873.1.0_1.pdf
  3. SCOTUS: 1st Amendment & discovery. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7892809/scotus-expands-right-to-sue-over-illicit-state-discovery
  4. SCOTUS: Racial redistricting. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7892804/scotus-limits-racial-redistricting
  5. Candace sued. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.tnmd.108994/gov.uscourts.tnmd.108994.1.0.pdf
  6. FISA. https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2050047557158707601?s=20
  7. Iran War to court: Force Majeuere. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/oil-traders-lawyer-up-as-hormuz-triggers-billions-in-disputes
  8. Farm Bill. https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/2049860117437219016?s=20
  9. OpenAI Trial. https://courthousenews.com/musk-testimony-continues-in-openai-fight/
  10. Narcos style indictment. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/sinaloa-governor-indictment-sdny.pdf
  11. Bail for illegals. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/second-circuit-says-noncitizens-can-get-bail.pdf
  12. Montana DA takeover. https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/MTAG/2026/04/30/file_attachments/3635043/AG%20Letter%20Invoking%20Supervisory%20Control%204.30.26.pdf

*Bonus: Google settlement. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/google-settlement.pdf

** Bonus: Crazy JP Morgan suit. https://www.livemint.com/news/us-news/i-own-you-jpmorgan-executive-accused-of-drugging-abusing-male-junior-banker-in-lawsuit-key-allegations-11777545493334.html

***Bonus: Infowars. https://courthousenews.com/texas-appeals-court-pauses-the-onions-purchase-of-infowars/

 

D. Deep Dive: Iran Exit Ramps

  1. Big gap in negotiations. https://global21.substack.com/p/there-is-no-effective-room-for-diplomacy
  2. Regime consolidation. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-war-saved-iranian-regime
  3. Iran Oil status. https://theprint.in/world/no-the-iranian-oil-industry-isnt-about-to-explode/2917718/
  4. Blockade limits. https://sonar21.com/the-bogus-blockade-claim-of-the-us-department-of-war/
  5. Kinetic limits. https://richardhaass.substack.com/p/the-us-iran-and-the-art-of-the-deal

*Bonus: Iran’s Lego pr. https://substack.com/@tritaparsi/note/c-251532814

III. CLOSING ARGUMENT: Constitution, Fifth Amendment & Discovery

  • In general, civil contempt “is intended to coerce the disobedient party into compliance with the court’s order through incarceration and/or monetary punishment.” Commonwealth v. Bowden, 838 A.2d 740, 761 (Pa. 2003). The court may not impose a coercive civil contempt sanction where compliance with the court’s order is impossible. In re Martorano, 346 A.2d 22, 29 (Pa. 1975). In determining what sanction to impose, “a court must exercise the least possible power suitable to achieve the end proposed.” Commonwealth v. Cromwell Twp., 32 A.3d 639, 653 (Pa. 2011) (citing Spallone v. United States, 493 U.S. 265, 276 (U.S. 1990)).
  • Contempt is not available for a witness asserting the protection of the Fifth Amendmenty right not to be a witness against onself. Note what the Amendment does not say:  a right not to incriminate onself. Instead, it's a right not to be a witness in any manner in a proceeding where the witness' evidence can be used adverse to them. A witness “cannot be compelled to give evidence against himself.” “The Amendment not only protects the individual against being involuntarily called as a witness against himself in a criminal prosecution but also privileges him not to answer official questions put to him in any other proceeding, civil or criminal, formal or informal, where the answers might incriminate him in future criminal proceedings.” Lefkowitz v. Turley, 414 U.S. 70, 77 (U.S. 1973). 
  • The Third Circuit held that: “A trial court must carefully balance the interests of the party claiming protection against self-incrimination and the adversary's entitlement to equitable treatment. Because the [Fifth Amendment] privilege is constitutionally based, the detriment to the party asserting it should be no more than is necessary to prevent unfair and unnecessary prejudice to the other side.” S.E.C. v. Graystone Nash, Inc., 25 F.3d 187, 192 (3d Cir. 1994). This includes orders to compel password disclosures. Commonwealth v. Davis, J-42-2019 (Pa. 2019). A court cannot order contempt for a Fifth Amendment assertion. Commonwealth v. Leclair, 2014-CJC-11469 (Mass. 2006). 
  • A Pennsylvania Court of Common Pleas expressly cited Graystone Nash and used it as the basis for decision-making in Haas v. Bowman, 62 Pa. D. & C.4th 1, 10 (Pa. Com. Pl. 2003). In Haas, the Court of Common Pleas cited numerous cases to hold that “Under this standard, noncompliance with pleading requirements cannot be a basis for entering a judgment against a party properly invoking the Fifth Amendment privilege.” Haas v. Bowman, 62 Pa. D. & C.4th 1, 11 (Pa. Com. Pl. 2003). “Absent independent, probative evidence produced by the party bearing the burden of proof, the implications of one's assertion of the Fifth Amendment privilege are speculative at best, and insufficient to support an adverse factual determination.” Harmon v. Mifflin Cnty. Sch. Dist., 552 Pa. 92, 100, 713 A.2d 620, 624 (Pa. 1998). 
  • Where usinesses are alter egos of the individual defendants, the businesses too should be protected by the Fifth Amendment. United States v. Doe, 465 U.S. 605, 613 n. 11 (U.S. 1984). Under United States v. Doe, 465 U.S. 605, 613 n. 11 (U.S. 1984), the Supreme Court held that the business records of an individual proprietorship are essentially the same as individual records for the purposes of the Fifth Amendment. Braswell v. United States, 487 U.S. 99, 104 (U.S. 1988). Pennsylvania courts recognize this risk and that a court cannot, through contempt, compel an individual to be a witness against themselves. Sweet v. The City of Williamsport, No. 20-CV-00512 (C.P. Lycoming County June 27, 2022 Linhard, J.)  
  • As such, the coercive power of the state cannot compel, under threat of contempt, a witness to be a witness against themselves without violating the Fifth Amendment to the Constitution, a right rooted in opposing Inquisitorial methods to extract information from state targets. 
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Barnes Brief: Friday, April 24, 2026

I. INTRODUCTION 

A. Art of the Week

  • Love the look & feel of old books (antiquarian in the colloquial parlance), as I collected them for years, but also feel more comfortable in their physical presence, enveloping you as you think, in the home libraries of yesteryear, connecting you to the thoughts and ideas of your ancestors, shared  just through the smell, look and feel of the leather-bound texts from the handmade book publishers of old, an initiating to retreat into the past and explore it like the recesses of one’s own mind for the thoughts that race across the page and whisper from the old ink stained pages. 

B. Recommendation of the Week

C. Wisdom of the Week

  • "Yesterday, upon the stair, I met a man who wasn’t there. He wasn’t there again today, I wish, I wish he’d go away. When I came home last night at three, The man was waiting there for me. But when I looked around the hall, I couldn’t see him there at all! Go away, go away, don’t you come back any more! Go away, go away, and please don’t slam the door... Last night I saw upon the stair, A little man who wasn’t there. He wasn’t there again today, Oh, how I wish he’d go away..."  William Hughes Mearns. 

D. Appearances

II. THE EVIDENCE

*NOTE: A reminder: links are NOT always endorsements of the authors or their interpretation of events, but intended to expand our library of understanding as well as expose ideas of distinct perspective to our own. 

A. Barnes Library: Curated Weekly Articles

  1. Tankers skip blockade. https://www.ft.com/content/21dff2c7-1e27-4f74-81d8-31dcdbe9188e
  2. Doubts about madman strategies. https://substack.com/home/post/p-192512883
  3. Consumer sentiment new lows. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence
  4. Job market worries spike. https://www.gallup.com/workplace/703280/worker-thriving-declines-job-market-pessimism-grows.aspx
  5. MAHA status. https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/forefront/maha-check-up-united-states-getting-healthier

 *Bonus: Old school medical remedies. https://substack.com/@varianavolk/note/c-244056215

B. Best of the Board: Five Fun Posts of the Week

  1. Too true. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7876337/title
  2. Beauty in the backyard. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878608/1st-goldfinches-were-at-the-feeder-today-they-left-before-i-got-my-camera-a-sparrow-did-pose-for-a
  3. Wisdom. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7877990/so-if-the-splc-paid-regular-people-to-pretend-they-were-nazis-in-charlottesville-there-really-was
  4. Recipes. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7877606/cooking-time-tonites-recipe-is-a-cheese-and-onion-quic
  5. Congratulations! https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7876028/just-found-out-that-i-passed-the-pe-practices-and-principles-of-engineering-exam-this-will-allo

*Bonus: Sarcasm. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878157/title

C. Homework: Cases of the Week for Sunday

  1. SPLC Indictment. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7877843/professor-jonathan-turley-the-indictment-of-the-southern-poverty-law-center-on-federal-fraud-charg
  2. Insider trading indictment for soldier. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-classified-information-profit-prediction-market-bets
  3. Ten Commandments. https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/25/25-50695-CV0.pdf
  4. Ghost guns. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/national-association-for-gun-rights-jared-polis-opinion.pdf
  5. Surveillance Accountability Act. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878502/surveillance-accountability-act-this-is-new-legislation-put-forth-by-thomas-massey-and-lauren-boeber
  6. Loomer loses. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878370/federal-judge-dismisses-laura-loomers-defamation-suit-against-bill-maher-of-course-it-was-a
  7. J6 CIA suit. https://Vvivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7874216/shauni-kerkhoff-sued
  8. Kash sues. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7876578/kash-patel-sues
  9. Powell case dropped. https://courthousenews.com/justice-department-drops-criminal-probe-into-fed-chair-jerome-powell/
  10. AI embarrassment. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878598/https-x-com-smb-attorney-status-2046600985254977878
  11. AI invasion. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878135/it-sounds-like-the-just-us-system-is-nullifying-the-4th-amendment-when-it-comes-down-to-using-ai-ie
  12. VA redistricting challenge. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7877770/hot-air-beege-welborn-virginia-judge-rules-va-gerrymandering-vote-unconstitutional-https-hota

*Bonus: GA 2020 election dispute. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7876741/https-www-courtlistener-com-docket-72267501-pitts-v-united-states-filed-after-filed-before-entr

** Bonus: Amazon caught. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7876825/https-x-com-ric-rtp-status-2046578708035604945

***Bonus: AI fakes. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7877192/robertbarnes-vivafrei-and-all-president-trump-posted-this-on-truth-today-april-22-2026

D. Deep Dive: Iran War Oil Price Impact

  1. Supply offline. https://substack.com/@hfir/note/c-248155408
  2. Supply shock risks. https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/sanguine-strait-stoppage
  3. Electricity price spikes. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7875883/us-electricity-bills-are-surging-average-us-residential-electricity-prices-rose-5-yoy-to-a-reco
  4. China energy resilience re: Iran War. https://substack.com/home/post/p-195176243
  5. Doomberg: war effects. https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/backwards-looking

*Bonus: Chris Martenson.

III. CLOSING ARGUMENT: Iran War -- Exit, Don't Escalate

Trump's stated objectives of the Iran War cannot be won militarily without too high a price for Americans to pay, primarily in economic casulaties, but also in military casualties and domestic political casualties. Let's weight the risks and the realities of the means to obtain the potential reward. 

Rewards: a peaceful, democratic, pro-American, pro-Israel regime in Iran without a nuclear enrichment program, a long-range ballistic missle program, a long-range drone program, underwater drones, or minsubs, fast armed boats, to further secure an open-and-free (or US controlled) Strait of Hormuz for expeditious transport of essential goods, including energy, fertilizer, and supply chain critical supplies like helium, aluminium, and the like. 

Risks: Military casualties, in the injuries, disabilities or deaths of American soldiers, as well as diminished interest in service in the military from distrusted use of the military by military prospects, plus loss munitions, armaments, drones, weapons, jets, ships, radars, and military base infrastructure. Related thereto, the loss of perception of power in the projection of power, especially to the global south. Finally, militarily the undermining of our alliances in the middle east and Asia especially. Economic cacualties in the lost transit, and lost long-term control, of critical energy supplies, fertiliziers, and other essential and critical goods for the global supply chain, from helium to aluminum and more. Political casualties at home in fractured domestic political support, diminished capital for legislative actions, and risks of major midterm losses that could stalemate government and produce impeachment. 

How does a blockade of the blockade achieve the rewards? The theory is that Iran's inability to export through the Strait will cause them such economic difficulty that they will capitulate to give up their soveriegnty, forfeit nuclear enrichment entirely to the US, drop the missle and drone programs, and turn over power to another regime entirely. I see the chances of that as less than 1%. Iranian nationalism, Persian pride, and Shia sacrifical spirituality make surrender worse than death for this regime and many of the people. 

How does a bombing campaign achieve the rewards? If 40 days of 10K plus bombing targets didn't work, why would bombing a few more targets for a few more weeks achieve anything consequential? The no-bridges-and-power-plants war crime full Sherman approach only backfires by destroying all the oil infrastructure of the GCC countries triggering an economic apocalypse for America and the west, a retaliatory risk too great for any rational American leader to consider.

How does an exit achieve the rewards? It doesn't. But it does avoid the risks. And that's why exit rather than escalation is the rational America-First choice. 

 

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, August 17, 2026

I. INTRODUCTION

*Tickets now for sale. Limited availability. https://www.1776lawcenter.com/

A. Art of the Week

  • The earth, shaded by the moon, from the photos by Artemis, by Musk’s SpaceX to explore the universe. Shades within shades, as the earth looks like a quarter-Moon from earth, but just in reverse. All is often just a matter of perspective. 

B. Recommendation of the Week

C. Wisdom of the Week

  • “But the wisdom that is from above is indeed first pure, then peaceable, gentle, willing to yield, full of mercy and good fruits, without partiality and without hypocrisy.” James 3:17. 

D. Appearances

  • LIVE w/ Ed Dowd.
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  • LIVE w/ Baris & Massie.
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  • LIVE w/ Larry Johnson

II. THE EVIDENCE

*NOTE: A reminder: links are NOT endorsements of the authors or their interpretation of events, but intended to expand our library of understanding as well as expose ideas of distinct perspective to our own. 

A. Barnes Library: Curated Weekly Articles

  1. Iran deal possibility. https://substack.com/home/post/p-194261430
  2. Studying the Blob. https://www.blobstudies.com
  3. Israel support collapses amongst non-Boomer evangelicals. https://www.jpost.com/christianworld/article-786545
  4. Oil economy understood.
  5. Ukraine-Russian war.

 *Bonus: Artemis imagery. https://www.nasa.gov/artemis-ii-multimedia/

B. Best of the Board: Five Fun Posts of the Week

  1. Comedic relief. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862387/title
  2. Appetizing images. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862324/title
  3. Economic realities. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862450/figured-i-d-share-a-very-local-economy-anecdote-from-my-area-i-m-a-homebuilder-in-the-ny-area
  4. Law school lessons. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862399/i-am-sick-again-so-i-havent-been-hugely-functional-but-yesterday-in-a-criminal-law-class-we-ran-th
  5. Oil breakdown. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862095/title

*Bonus: Meme magic. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7861462/title

C. Homework: Cases of the Week for Sunday

  1. SCOTUS: removal. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-813_3e04.pdf
  2. FISA fails. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/17/spy-powers-expiration-closes-in-as-house-procedural-vote-fails-00878317
  3. Surveillance state controls. https://conservativeladiesofamerica.substack.com/p/the-parents-decide-act-doesnt-let
  4. Trump admin sued w/ rare Quo Warranto petition. https://www.bloomberglaw.com/public/desktop/document/BROWNvDeLeeuwDocketNo126cv01249DDCApr142026CourtDocket?doc_id=X5I57TSSSN08PDAPHKTHG7DTO30
  5. Eastman disbarred. https://www.calbar.ca.gov/news/attorney-john-eastman-disbarred-california-supreme-court
  6. Livenation verdict. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/live-nation-verdict-faceplant-trump-132338276.html
  7. Ukrainegate. https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2026/4154-pr-06-26
  8. Popular vote compact. https://digitalcommons.law.byu.edu/lawreview/vol2012/iss5/3/
  9. Boasberg shut down.  https://media.cadc.uscourts.gov/opinions/docs/2026/04/25-5452.pdf
  10. Savannah Hernandez. https://www.newsnationnow.com/crime/3-arrested-turning-point-usa-reporter-video-assault/
  11. ICE officer arrest. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ice-agent-charged-assault-minnesota-metro-surge-immigration-rcna332210
  12. 1A & licensure. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/25-2991-shamrock-hills-v-Iowa-appelant-brief.pdf

*Bonus: Media censorship limited. https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/04/ftc-takes-action-restore-competition-digital-advertising-ecosystem

**Bonus Cop case in Chicago. https://abc7chicago.com/post/ex-new-york-city-police-sgt-erik-duran-sentenced-throwing-cooler-fleeing-suspect-eric-duprey-killing/18861401/

***Bonus Gallego scandal. https://ktar.com/arizona-news/ruben-gallego-misconduct-allegations/5848619/

D. Deep Dive: Iran War Prospects

  1. The strategic surprise. https://global21.substack.com/p/america-has-never-faced-an-adversary
  2. Iran as new power. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opinion/iran-war-strait-hormuz.html
  3. A grand bargain. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-us-ceasefire-deal/
  4. The Israel aspect. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/israel-ceasefire/#:~:text=In%20order%20to%20do%20that,to%20further%20Israeli%20regional%20ambition.
  5. The Emirati angle. https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/the-united-arab-emirates-america-and-israels-frankenstein-monster/

*Bonus: The lego AI war. https://rumble.com/user/ExplosiveMediaa?e9s=src_v1_cbl

III. CLOSING ARGUMENT: The Power to Tax

  • The Preamble provides the purpose of the federal government to “insure domestic tranquility”, “provide for the common defense”, “promote the general welfare” and “secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity.” These balanced interests find manifestation in the enumerated powers articulated within the rest of the Constitution. 
  • Article I, Section 7 provides for “bills for raising revenue” including the enumerated power “to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposes and excises.” Article I, Section 8 imposes two restraints on the power to tax beyond the purposive restraint “to raise revenue.” All “duties, imposts and excises” must be “uniform throughout the United States.” Article I Section 9 prohibits any tax or duty on exports from any state and no capitation or direct tax can be imposed “unless in proportion to the census.” 
  • The Ninth Amendment further limits those enumerated rights to tax to a taxing power that does not “deny or disparate others retained by the people.” 
  • The Sixteenth Amendment expands Congress power to tax “without apportionment” and “without regard to any census” if imposed “on incomes” regardless of the source of those incomes. Effectively, it removed a federal tax on “incomes” from the apportionment requirement of direct taxes even if those incomes derived from sources that would otherwise require apportionment under Article I. 
  • This leaves open the big question: what is “incomes” under the Sixteenth Amendment? Congress abdicates the issue by using a self-referential and circular definition of income, which under English common law tradition, would negate any income tax since no tax be imposed without unambiguous specificity as to what is being taxed. 
  • The twin decisions that govern this are a dissent and a majority authored by the same Justice a near quarter-century apart — the dissent by Justice White in Pollock and his majority opinion in Brushaber. White considered incomes limited to its original understanding by the voters when ratifying the Sixteenth Amendment, and thus focused not on incomes, but the source rule. He felt a tax on anything other than land and people (capitation) did not require apportionment for its Constitutional imposition. The closest we get is “gain severed from the source” when that source is property or the person. 
  • Hence, a critical term to freedom from imposition by the state remains ambiguous and unanswered — what exactly is “incomes” within the meaning of the Constitution? 
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