The Scott Horton Show: Douglas Macgregor On Ukraine, China, and the Military Industrial Complex 2023.03.07
This is my summary of the interview. It is not a transcript. All comments are from the Colonel unless marked by SH (Scott Horton).
In the last year, Ukraine has suffered 200k soldiers killed, 200-300k wounded. Russia has had 20-25k soldiers killed, 75k wounded. These are estimates based on open source reports. The huge differential in casualties reflects the 10-1 advantage the Russians have in stand-off attack weapons (artillery, missiles, etc.).
Russia now occupies 22-23% of Ukraine. The land it occupies represents 90% of the Ukrainian GDP and most of its industry. This area is historically Russian.
Russia started the war with a small force. It believed that its attack would force Ukraine and the West to the negotiating table. After several months, Russia realized that the USA would not agree to negotiations. It then began preparations to fight a high-end conventional war. This led to a call-up of reserves and opening up factory production of conventional weapons. Forecast was for a winter offensive to start once the ground froze solid.
The winter in Ukraine was short, about 2-3 weeks. This was not enough to freeze the ground solid. It is now mud season in Ukraine, making transport very difficult. The Colonel predicted it would take all of March and April to dry. This suggests the Russian offensive could start in May-June timeframe. The Colonel thinks that the offensive will seek to cut off the Ukrainian border with Poland.
No one in DC will admit that they are wrong about the war in Ukraine.
SH DC is now urging we send weapons to Ukraine to hit Crimea.
“Delusional.” We have sent many weapons to Ukraine, none have been game changers. There is now talk of send F-16 fighters to Ukraine. Two Ukrainian pilots are reportedly in USA for F-16 flight training. If Ukraine gets F-16s, they will use contractors to fly them. We must expect F-16 losses to Russian air defenses, which are excellent. This could lead Russia to attack Ukraine rear areas, like Poland. So far, Russia has exercised great restraint with the Ukraine rear areas.
NATO is very divided, with many member countries feeling betrayed by USA decisions and guidance. Europe now sees Russian forces massing on the edge of Europe. Will Germany break first? The German Prime Minister is in trouble. Polling in Germany shows 70-80% want the Foreign Minister to resign after she said Germany was at war with Russia in Ukraine. A no confidence vote in Germany is certain to happen, but the timing is difficult to predict. When the crack comes in NATO, it will be dramatic.
NATO is also very weak. It cannot deliver the equipment promised to Ukraine. News reports claim that a German Leopard tank sent to Ukraine was captured. And its Polish crew was captured. This happened near Bakhmut.
The Ukrainian press are reporting on conditions in the front at Bakhmut. The Kyiv Independent said that Ukrainian front-line troops have a 30-70% chance of making it back alive. The same article reported that Ukraine is running out of ammo. The Colonel notes that Ukraine is conscripting teenagers and old men and sending them into battle with little training.
Everyone underestimated the ammo use in the Ukraine war and the level of casualties in the war. The effectiveness of weapon systems was overestimated. A collapse is clearly coming. What will happen then?
SH DC is saying that if Ukraine collapses, then we can replicate the Russian occupation of Afghanistan.
Everyone misjudged the Ukraine situation. Russian started the war with the plan of negotiations leading to implementation of the Minsk Accords. A year later, Russia is saying if you want war, here it comes. But the weather did not cooperate. Russia will wait for the dry season, and then the movement will begin. Until that time, Russia will constantly hit Ukrainian front lines with heavy bombardments, causing many casualties.
Russia will end the war by marching to the Polish border. The Colonel’s supposition is that when the Russians close on the Dnieper River, Europe will say enough. If the war continues, how long before it spills over to Poland and other NATO countries?
SH Why is the China threat being pushed by DC?
It is a sign that DC is realizing that Ukraine is lost and it is time to change the subject. People in the USA must realize that China is not going to invade the USA or invade Taiwan.
SH Mearsheimer has predicted that the Biden Administration will escalate in Ukraine.
The US Army would be lucky to scrape together 50k combat troops on the ground in Ukraine. It won’t happen. The US Navy could intervene, but would take heavy losses. Russians have submarines and would use them on US Navy warships. Russia could also attack shipping in the North Atlantic, which would end the ground war very quickly. Expect DC to change the subject. If USA does escalate, then NATO will split, new governments would form in Europe, and the new governments would ignore the USA. Instead, the USA will change the subject and turn to China.
SH What about China sending fentanyl to the USA through Mexico?
China sends ingredients to Mexico for fentanyl. It is the Mexican drug cartels that make the fentanyl and ship it across the open border into the USA. The obvious fix is to close the open border with Mexico.
SH USA has increased the opium supply in SE Asia over the last 20 years. Turnabout by China is predictable.
China is an attractive scapegoat. Who sent industry to China? It started under Reagan, and has continued under all the Presidents since then. Our ruling class sold us out.
China acutely remembers the opium wars of the 19th Century. The Royal Navy forced China ports to unload opium. China was powerless to stop this. They have not forgotten this.
We need to compete economically with China. It makes no sense to wage war with China over things we allowed to happen in the USA. We need to take action. We need to understand that the Military Industrial Complex (MIC) is a massive money machine.
SH Conservatives like to play the tough guy role, and urge us to stop The Yellow Peril from China. But here you are, one of the toughest guys around, saying, “Come on.”
I’m not sure I am that influential. It is OK to not believe The Yellow Peril narrative, and to question USA foreign policy. War with China is easily avoided. We need to look inward, and defend the American people. We need to stop offensive attacks on other countries.
SH With the fall of the USSR, it put the USA in charge of the world. It gave the USA a chance to set up a unipolar world before other countries in the world got rich. Now, 30 years later, Americans won’t accept that other countries got rich and it is no longer a unipolar world.
The USA cannot be the dominate power all over the world. You are right. There are elements in the DC elites, such as the neo-cons, who believe in permanent revolution around the world. What we need to do is to consolidate our industries and take care of the USA people. This is not part of the money machine that is the MIC. A major bankruptcy is coming. It is like the 2008 financial crisis, only worse.
SH Agree. The collapse of the money/banking system will save us from WW3.
We need to do business with other countries peacefully. We need a long-term perspective, with devotion to our country. There is lots of anger now, we will see how it plays out politically. The two major political parties are the same, we need a third force to make genuine change.
SH The legacy media talk of the MIC as a debunked conspiracy theory. Your view?
Most military types follow orders and do their best with the weapons they are given. Decisions are made at a high level for weapons, treating weapons as a money pit. Right decisions do not flow from this. An example is the M1 Abrams tank. The gas turbine engine in this tank runs out of fuel quickly. It has a huge heat signature that satellites can read. It needs the excellent diesel engine used in the Leopard tank. But it has not been changed. People are on a runaway train as politicians and 3-4 star generals and admirals make decisions. Or, decisions are not made and the defense contractors build things on their own. Eisenhower was right about the MIC, but he did not anticipate how badly it would turn out.
SH Ron Paul often remarks that we get the government we deserve. We need a consensus to rise up to stop this.
Agree. The Russian population now wants blood in Ukraine. We are fortunate that Putin has exercised restraint in Ukraine.
Popular sentiment does make a difference. Chaos from economic issues will drive changes. People will still want to eat, to heat their homes, and to drive their car.
SH But the Biden Administration is the Obama team. We have to remove these people.
Agree.
SH How big is the threat of nuclear war?
It is possible, but unlikely. Russians do not want a nuclear war. They will only go nuclear if they are attacked by nuclear weapons, or have solid evidence that a nuclear strike is imminent on Russia.
USA Secretary of State Blinken understands nuclear weapons are the ultimate nightmare to avoid at all costs. There is no evidence that the Defense Department want a war with Russia. General Milley made an honest comment a few weeks back. He said that the Ukrainian military was on the ropes and it was time for a negotiated agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The White House told him to shut up and he now repeats the official narrative. We need an off-ramp for the Ukraine conflict, and we need it quickly. The longer we wait, the more the risks multiply.
Russia is in the driver’s seat now. We are not. It will get ugly for NATO. The future will not be like the past, we cannot do a linear projection of current trends to understand what is coming. We are at an inflection point for the planet earth.
https://scotthortonshow.substack.com/p/douglas-macgregor-on-ukraine-china#details
