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The Scott Horton Show: Douglas Macgregor On Ukraine, China, and the Military Industrial Complex 2023.03.07

This is my summary of the interview. It is not a transcript. All comments are from the Colonel unless marked by SH (Scott Horton).

In the last year, Ukraine has suffered 200k soldiers killed, 200-300k wounded. Russia has had 20-25k soldiers killed, 75k wounded. These are estimates based on open source reports. The huge differential in casualties reflects the 10-1 advantage the Russians have in stand-off attack weapons (artillery, missiles, etc.).

Russia now occupies 22-23% of Ukraine. The land it occupies represents 90% of the Ukrainian GDP and most of its industry. This area is historically Russian.

Russia started the war with a small force. It believed that its attack would force Ukraine and the West to the negotiating table. After several months, Russia realized that the USA would not agree to negotiations. It then began preparations to fight a high-end conventional war. This led to a call-up of reserves and opening up factory production of conventional weapons. Forecast was for a winter offensive to start once the ground froze solid.

The winter in Ukraine was short, about 2-3 weeks. This was not enough to freeze the ground solid. It is now mud season in Ukraine, making transport very difficult. The Colonel predicted it would take all of March and April to dry. This suggests the Russian offensive could start in May-June timeframe. The Colonel thinks that the offensive will seek to cut off the Ukrainian border with Poland.

No one in DC will admit that they are wrong about the war in Ukraine.

SH DC is now urging we send weapons to Ukraine to hit Crimea.

“Delusional.” We have sent many weapons to Ukraine, none have been game changers. There is now talk of send F-16 fighters to Ukraine. Two Ukrainian pilots are reportedly in USA for F-16 flight training. If Ukraine gets F-16s, they will use contractors to fly them. We must expect F-16 losses to Russian air defenses, which are excellent. This could lead Russia to attack Ukraine rear areas, like Poland. So far, Russia has exercised great restraint with the Ukraine rear areas.

NATO is very divided, with many member countries feeling betrayed by USA decisions and guidance. Europe now sees Russian forces massing on the edge of Europe. Will Germany break first? The German Prime Minister is in trouble. Polling in Germany shows 70-80% want the Foreign Minister to resign after she said Germany was at war with Russia in Ukraine. A no confidence vote in Germany is certain to happen, but the timing is difficult to predict. When the crack comes in NATO, it will be dramatic.

NATO is also very weak. It cannot deliver the equipment promised to Ukraine. News reports claim that a German Leopard tank sent to Ukraine was captured. And its Polish crew was captured. This happened near Bakhmut.

The Ukrainian press are reporting on conditions in the front at Bakhmut. The Kyiv Independent said that Ukrainian front-line troops have a 30-70% chance of making it back alive. The same article reported that Ukraine is running out of ammo. The Colonel notes that Ukraine is conscripting teenagers and old men and sending them into battle with little training.

Everyone underestimated the ammo use in the Ukraine war and the level of casualties in the war. The effectiveness of weapon systems was overestimated. A collapse is clearly coming. What will happen then?

SH DC is saying that if Ukraine collapses, then we can replicate the Russian occupation of Afghanistan.

Everyone misjudged the Ukraine situation. Russian started the war with the plan of negotiations leading to implementation of the Minsk Accords. A year later, Russia is saying if you want war, here it comes. But the weather did not cooperate. Russia will wait for the dry season, and then the movement will begin. Until that time, Russia will constantly hit Ukrainian front lines with heavy bombardments, causing many casualties.

Russia will end the war by marching to the Polish border. The Colonel’s supposition is that when the Russians close on the Dnieper River, Europe will say enough. If the war continues, how long before it spills over to Poland and other NATO countries?

SH Why is the China threat being pushed by DC?

It is a sign that DC is realizing that Ukraine is lost and it is time to change the subject. People in the USA must realize that China is not going to invade the USA or invade Taiwan.

SH Mearsheimer has predicted that the Biden Administration will escalate in Ukraine.

The US Army would be lucky to scrape together 50k combat troops on the ground in Ukraine. It won’t happen. The US Navy could intervene, but would take heavy losses. Russians have submarines and would use them on US Navy warships. Russia could also attack shipping in the North Atlantic, which would end the ground war very quickly. Expect DC to change the subject. If USA does escalate, then NATO will split, new governments would form in Europe, and the new governments would ignore the USA. Instead, the USA will change the subject and turn to China.

SH What about China sending fentanyl to the USA through Mexico?

China sends ingredients to Mexico for fentanyl. It is the Mexican drug cartels that make the fentanyl and ship it across the open border into the USA. The obvious fix is to close the open border with Mexico.

SH USA has increased the opium supply in SE Asia over the last 20 years. Turnabout by China is predictable.

China is an attractive scapegoat. Who sent industry to China? It started under Reagan, and has continued under all the Presidents since then. Our ruling class sold us out.

China acutely remembers the opium wars of the 19th Century. The Royal Navy forced China ports to unload opium. China was powerless to stop this. They have not forgotten this.

We need to compete economically with China. It makes no sense to wage war with China over things we allowed to happen in the USA. We need to take action. We need to understand that the Military Industrial Complex (MIC) is a massive money machine.

SH Conservatives like to play the tough guy role, and urge us to stop The Yellow Peril from China. But here you are, one of the toughest guys around, saying, “Come on.”

I’m not sure I am that influential. It is OK to not believe The Yellow Peril narrative, and to question USA foreign policy. War with China is easily avoided. We need to look inward, and defend the American people. We need to stop offensive attacks on other countries.

SH With the fall of the USSR, it put the USA in charge of the world. It gave the USA a chance to set up a unipolar world before other countries in the world got rich. Now, 30 years later, Americans won’t accept that other countries got rich and it is no longer a unipolar world.

The USA cannot be the dominate power all over the world. You are right. There are elements in the DC elites, such as the neo-cons, who believe in permanent revolution around the world. What we need to do is to consolidate our industries and take care of the USA people. This is not part of the money machine that is the MIC. A major bankruptcy is coming. It is like the 2008 financial crisis, only worse.

SH Agree. The collapse of the money/banking system will save us from WW3.

We need to do business with other countries peacefully. We need a long-term perspective, with devotion to our country. There is lots of anger now, we will see how it plays out politically. The two major political parties are the same, we need a third force to make genuine change.

SH The legacy media talk of the MIC as a debunked conspiracy theory. Your view?

Most military types follow orders and do their best with the weapons they are given. Decisions are made at a high level for weapons, treating weapons as a money pit. Right decisions do not flow from this. An example is the M1 Abrams tank. The gas turbine engine in this tank runs out of fuel quickly. It has a huge heat signature that satellites can read. It needs the excellent diesel engine used in the Leopard tank. But it has not been changed. People are on a runaway train as politicians and 3-4 star generals and admirals make decisions. Or, decisions are not made and the defense contractors build things on their own. Eisenhower was right about the MIC, but he did not anticipate how badly it would turn out.

SH Ron Paul often remarks that we get the government we deserve. We need a consensus to rise up to stop this.

Agree. The Russian population now wants blood in Ukraine. We are fortunate that Putin has exercised restraint in Ukraine.

Popular sentiment does make a difference. Chaos from economic issues will drive changes. People will still want to eat, to heat their homes, and to drive their car.

SH But the Biden Administration is the Obama team. We have to remove these people.

Agree.

SH How big is the threat of nuclear war?

It is possible, but unlikely. Russians do not want a nuclear war. They will only go nuclear if they are attacked by nuclear weapons, or have solid evidence that a nuclear strike is imminent on Russia.

USA Secretary of State Blinken understands nuclear weapons are the ultimate nightmare to avoid at all costs. There is no evidence that the Defense Department want a war with Russia. General Milley made an honest comment a few weeks back. He said that the Ukrainian military was on the ropes and it was time for a negotiated agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The White House told him to shut up and he now repeats the official narrative. We need an off-ramp for the Ukraine conflict, and we need it quickly. The longer we wait, the more the risks multiply.

Russia is in the driver’s seat now. We are not. It will get ugly for NATO. The future will not be like the past, we cannot do a linear projection of current trends to understand what is coming. We are at an inflection point for the planet earth.

https://scotthortonshow.substack.com/p/douglas-macgregor-on-ukraine-china#details

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Board Discussion: DejaVu

Just experiencing a moment of deja vu -- re-experiencing in live time what you already lived, already seen. Some call it illusory; others suggest it signifies something more. Jung suggested it as evidence of the collective unconscious and the power of synchronicity with the universe; native American traditions hold it means our minds can travel across space & time; and a few think it a Matrix-level reveal of the Simulation. Some think it just a trick of the mind, a magician's deception on our recalled experience and sensory perception processing. I thought it might be a fun topic to discuss. Your thoughts, experience, and ideas contribute in the replies below.

Questions for Bourbon with Barnes: Thursday, November 13, 2025

Ask in replies and answering Live at 9ish eastern tonight.

Questions for Bourbon w/ Barnes: Wednesday, November 12, 2025

Ask in replies & answering live at 9ish eastern tonight.

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The Barnes Brief: Wednesday, November 12, 2025

I.   INTRODUCTION

 A. Art of the Day

Icarus, who sought to escape through wings that could him fly like a bird, but came to believe he alone was the source of his greatness, and flew too close to the sun, to fall and collapse from the sky. The great warning of Hubris.

B. Wisdom of the Day

“As soon as you believe you are God is precisely when God will remind you that you are not.” Robert Barnes.  

C. Cultural Recommendation

The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by my old Yale freshman mentor, Paul Kennedy. A sign of great danger is when the leaders get infected with Hubris. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/840043.The_Rise_and_Fall_of_the_Great_Powers

D. Appearances

  • LIVE w/ Baris: Debriefing elections 2025.
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  • LIVE w/ Duran: Hubris infects the west.
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II.    THE EVIDENCE

 *Note: A reminder — links are NOT endorsements of the ideas contained therein. The Library is big, and it mostly consists of ideas I do not personally share.  

A.  Daily News of Interest

  1. Lauren Southern discloses governmental effort to entrap her.
  2. Ed Dowd: economic troubles & market bubbles.
  3. Californication collapse. https://chroniclesmagazine.org/reviews/the-nightmare-of-californication/
  4. Trans fad fades. https://www.skeptic.com/article/transgenderism-is-in-rapid-decline-among-young-americans/
  5. Big Tech manipulation of elections. https://dailycaller.com/2025/11/07/2026-midterms-robert-epstein-google-big-tech-trump-admin/

*Bonus:  YouTube revenue falling for content creators.

B. Daily Deep Dive: AI –More Artificial, than Intelligence?

  1. The bubble to end all bubbles. https://www.wired.com/story/ai-bubble-will-burst/
  2. Circular self-dealing. https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts
  3. The infrastructure problem. https://www.derekthompson.org/p/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-will-pop
  4. Could blow up credit & equity markets. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/podcast-yes-it-s-an-artificial-intelligence-bubble-here-s-why
  5. The hallucination problem. https://drainpipe.io/the-reality-of-ai-hallucinations-in-2025/

*Bonus: AI not creating a productivity boom. https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/23/developers_genai_little_productivity_gains/

C. Cases of Consequence

  1. Bear lawsuit. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/boardofgame-alaska-bear-killings-complaint.pdf
  2. Discovery petition over Texas flood deaths. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/naylor-v-camp-mystic-lawsuit.pdf
  3. State control over interest rates. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/national-association-bankers-phil-weiser-opinion.pdf
  4. Election Day to SCOTUS. https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24-1260/364840/20250710101559188_Amicus%20Brief.pdf
  5. As forecast, no gay marriage to Scotus. https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/11/supreme-court-declines-to-hear-case-on-constitutionality-of-same-sex-marriage/

*Bonus: Courts usurp power. https://tonyseruga.substack.com/p/when-the-courts-become-congress-the

III.                       Best of the Board

From the commentary on policies to improve affordable housing.

 

From @Ryanpd911

  • 1 - no corporation or entity can own more than 3 single family residence and no corporation can own more that 2 other corporations who own more then 2 single family homes.
    2 - cut regulations on the timber industry
    3 - give tax breaks on concrete construction (less need to rebuild after fires or natural disasters
    4 - deport all illegals make it unlawful for them to own any property in the US
    5 - mandate that all public schools offer shop and each shop class must build one stick and frame house and one concrete house per year and offer trades apprenticeships senior year.
    6 - ban all foreign countries and corporations and citizens from owning land or critical infrastructure or food production in the US
    7 - make a law that 1st time homebuyers first loan is 1/2 the going mortgage rate.
    8 - End corporate farming and put limits on how big farms can be and limits on the number of animals, get back to family farms. All family farms get mortgages at 1/2 the going rate.

From @ashman454

  • evoke/cancel all the stupid green energy rules that applied to everything from appliances, hvacs, vehicles and housing.
    also limitation on corps buying up huge housing section to rent...rent apartments fine, but limitations on condos and single family homes being bought up and owned. y big corporations

From ltdpilot

  • allow buyers the option of continuing the interest rate of the seller

From srgravesfamily

  • 1/ Make it easier to buy a "contact for deed" or "rent to own"
    2. Property taxes and home insurance is a big part of the problem (not to mention HOA fees)>
    3. Lower interest rates for first time home buyers or make mortgage assumptions easier again like they used to be.
    4. Starter Homes!!
    5. It would also help if young people didn't have to pay an arm and a leg for health insurance and high interest student loans. This eats up a big part of the income they could use for a home.
    6. The builder who said that the supply problems need fixed it absolutely right. My brother-in-law is a builder as was my father. This is a big part of the problem.

 

From @EdBiagini

 

  • Robert I have many ideas on this because I am a small home builder in Orange County NY, I’d be willing to send you something via email if you would prefer. First, my biggest obstacle is zoning regulations. NY is a home rule state, so I have to deal with a zoning board, planning board, and town board in each individual town. The average lot size around here is 1-2 acres, some towns it is as high as 5 acres. My father was a builder and in the 70s lot sizes were significantly smaller. So if I subdivide a property I am getting much less bang for my buck because I get less lots per subdivision. Second, the building materials market is highly consolidated. There are a small number of manufacturers for drywall, shingles, lumber, insulation, siding, etc. Even the building supply houses have consolidated with Builders First Source being the dominant player. There is almost no competition and, in my opinion, there is price collusion. The administration needs to investigate this (they just did this for meat packers) and bust up these huge players. If home prices decline much further I won’t be able to build because my margins are already tight, I need input costs to come down. Third, mass migration, both legal and illegal has increased housing demand. H1-B visa holders are allowed to get FHA loans, which is insane to me. The administration has to get serious about mass deportations. Fourth, large investment firms own a significant share of single family homes. A young family can’t compete with Black Rock when they buy up entire subdivisions. Fifth, homeowners insurance has gone through the roof. I don’t have a solution for this aside from getting input costs down to lower repair costs. 50 year mortgages would for me because it will keep prices elevated, so long as it increases demand. But I’m skeptical, gen z already feels screwed and telling them they need 50 year mortgages is just kicking them while they’re down. I would prefer prices and inputs come down so gen z and millenials can own homes and start families.

IV.    Closing Argument: The Hades of Hubris

  • The Greeks warned of it. History repeats with lessons of its own. Scholars and literary authors list it like the heel of Achilles and the wings of Icarus – how the great and mighty fall. The Bible identifies it as the great calamitous sin – from Lucifer’s fall to the Tower of Babel’s collapse, from Goliath’s loss to Nebuchadnezzar’s judgment. Hubris, the “haughty spirit” that beckons a deep fall, now infects the leaders of the west, even the President himself, and now its consequences threaten us all.
  • The clinical definition of hubris typically develops in individuals who hold significant power. Its characteristics encompass:  a magnified, embellished view of one's own capabilities;  obsession with personal image; contempt for criticism; loss of contact with reality; a reckless, uncalculated disregard of risk; a denial of dissent. An infection of the soul, an illness of the mind, rather than a permanent trait of a stable personality.
  • The tell-tale signs of Hubris include – recent overwhelming success or power; dis-sociality disregarding others from one’s own traditional community; disinhibition into impulsiveness without calculated regard for risk; condescension, and even contempt, for others and any form of criticism; a belief in oneself above others beyond reason or wisdom.
  • The decaying, declining empires frequently feature hubris, as Professor Paul Kennedy first penned in his Rise and Fall of Great Powers. The empire’s hubris -- overconfidence in their “specialness” tends to overextend themselves in risky expressions – manifest in multiple manners, such as imperial overreach; mismatch between resources & risks; overestimation of their own capabilities; military operations globally as a nation’s global military deployment exceeds its resource capacity; persistent debt and deficits, in public and private sectors, including in balance-of-trade and budgets, as dependency on foreign adversaries rise; diverting resources to overseas adventurism diminishes the public infrastructure, human and physical; a declining industrial sector, replaced with financialization and services, often shifting its dependence on real goods and labor, it’s true capital, to foreign nations; deepening internal divisiveness, as competing interests vie for diminishing resources; bureaucratic infighting as the parasitic state replaces the functioning private economy for material wealth and moral purpose; a moral decay in the institutions of society, religious, social and communal, as the material foundation for that moral prosperity fades and fractures.
  • What happens when you survive two impeachments, four indictments, and near assassination? Could the seductress of Hubris distract your soul and deceive your mind? Does this not well capture much of the modern west, and even Trump’s six-month flirtation with Hubris as his north star?
  • The cure remains the same as the Scripture teaches and the Greek myths proclaim – a needed nemesis to teach us humility as the answer to hubris. Avoid the fall; abandon the arrogance, and listen again, to the people who truly were his wall against wrongdoers.

 

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, November 7, 2025

I.   INTRODUCTION

A. Art of the Day

America in black-and-white, from another time and place, with the wooden shacks, old-time automobiles, along a stretch of highway looking like Route 66, hugged by small gas stations, old diners, and convenient motels, where Americans go about their day, underneath the open skies, along the open road, inviting and welcoming to a time past we spiritually seek to return.

B. Wisdom of the Day

"The Russians are slow to saddle up but ride fast once they do." Otto Von Bismark.

C. Cultural Recommendation

Kevin Phillips reminder that past can be prologue. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/565270.Arrogant_Capital

D. Appearances

II. THE EVIDENCE

 *Note: A reminder — links are NOT endorsements of the ideas contained therein. The Library is big, and it mostly consists of ideas I do not personally share.  

 

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The Barnes Brief: Halloween, 2025

I.   INTRODUCTION

A. Art of the Day

  • As harvest ends, we commence the remembrance of death itself, recognizing its role in the cycle of life, as All Hallows Eve awaits the All Souls Day to follow. Our Celtic ancestors, and many contemporary Mexican celebrants with their Day of the Dead, see the sun set into winter’s moon, and the souls of those alive and past dance in the foggy merriment, with the light & the darkness competing for the souls of us all.

B. Wisdom of the Day

  • “I have to study politics and war so that my sons can study mathematics, commerce, and agriculture, so their sons can study poetry, painting and music.” John Quincy Adams.

C. Cultural Recommendation

D. Appearances

II. THE EVIDENCE

 *Note: A reminder — links are NOT endorsements of the ideas contained therein. The Library is big, and it mostly consists of ideas I do not personally share.  

 

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