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1. Covid. The real key metric to test with vaccinations is the Absolute Reduction Rate that takes into consideration the relevant whole population. Due to the preexisting health disparities between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated, measuring Covid efficacy by the Relative Reduction Rate that only contrasts those two groups fails to account for the selection bias problem in who is vaccinated. An example: a better way to measure would be to compare the vaccinated population in a country with the unvaccinated population in a country at a similar seasonal time the year before, with the unvaccinated population the year before the "control group." By that measurement, the fact Israel has worse cases now than last year at this time (or neighboring, mostly unvaccinated Palestine now) despite high rates of vaccinations raises a red flag. "Israel has among the world’s highest levels of vaccination for COVID-19, with 78% of those 12 and older fully vaccinated, the vast majority with the Pfizer vaccine. Yet the country is now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people." https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta

2. Legal. Paxton won his claim against San Antonio for the time being. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/paxton-successfully-sues-vaccine-mandating-school-district

3. Economic. Of note: "the July 2021 Percent Contraction in Payrolls Remained Deeper than Anything Seen in the Last Seven Recessions, Outside of the Great Recession." http://www.shadowstats.com

4. Political. Even the "hear the vibes" Venice lefties admit Newsom's trouble is Democrats' trouble. "Republicans have exposed a clear vulnerability for Democrats heading into next year’s midterms: claiming that California’s supposed societal breakdown is the inevitable byproduct of lefty decadence, the failure of elite liberal governance—and the future of Biden’s America." https://ckarchive.com/b/75u7h8hrzvd7

5. Cultural. My NFL Win total picks for the year. https://sportspicks.locals.com/post/987809/nfl-win-totals-picks

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Winston getting ready for the kennel

There are only two options here: either Winston knows what the kennel is. Or he doesn’t! 😂

00:00:19
December 19, 2024
Big Fani Willis SPANKED!

here's the Locals sneak peek.

00:12:13
December 18, 2024
Daily update

There is serious flooding in Fort Lauderdale.

00:01:14
February 17, 2024
Appearance on Richard Syrette

I did a quick hit on Richard Syrette yesterday. Gotta keep Canadians apprised of the U.S. madness.

Appearance on Richard Syrette
The Barnes Brief, Podcast Format: Monday, July 17, 2023

Closing Argument: Birthright citizenship is deeply American, and wholly Constitutional.

The Barnes Brief, Podcast Format: Monday, July 17, 2023
Declaration of Independence

Audio podcast style.

Declaration of Independence
Escaped

Out of hospital. Thanks for all the prayers!

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We landed safely in Canada

This is my “happy face”. 😂

It’s literally like landing in a different country. A different era. A different universe.

I do not like it. But it is the price to pay to see family.

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CIA helped plan Covid coup d’tetas …….. and this is why everyone needs to support Bobby’s confirmation.

‘RFK Jr Asks Why Bill Gates & the CIA Were Hosting Event 201 Together in 2019

“You have in New York City Bill Gates hosting a coronavirus pandemic simulation. His co-host is Avril Haines, the Deputy Director of the CIA. What is the CIA doing at a public health forum? They don’t do public health. They do coup d'états.” ‘

Full Episode: @TheoVon

@RobertKennedyJr

https://x.com/thechiefnerd/status/1870763310821285976?s=46

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, October 25, 2024

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Art of the Day: The pride of skill, the mastery of craft, the aesthetic of labor as the anesthetic answer to a commodified, corporatized, dehumanized life imagined for the working class by distant elites. The deindustrialization of America damaged the soul of America, as it replaced empowering honest labor with numbers on a balance sheet of a bureaucratized, soul-lobotomized number-cruncher. Rebalancing the productive economy requires respecting honest work that produces real and tangible value beyond dollars and cents.   

Book Recommendation: Working class rebellion of the 1970s. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/8614946-stayin-alive?

Wisdom of the Day: “Work is just living out the script to Office Space. We don’t devalue work; work devalues us.” Gen Z worker explaining the antipathy of the Gen Z to the modern workplace.

 

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, October 18, 2024

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Past

What Are The Odds:

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Upcoming

LIVE Friday Night Betting w/ Barnes at 9pm: https://sportspicks.locals.com/post/6244428/betting-w-barnes-ama-friday-october-18-2024

Saturday Movie: TBD by Board Poll

Sunday: Law for the People w/ Viva

Art of the Day: Needed: an old school study with fireplace, deep leather chairs, the requisite humidor, oil paintings on the wall of ancestors, plush carpets on hardwood floors, old cognac and elegant bourbon in the cabinet, a few classic books on the shelves, and memorable conversations for generations.

Book Recommendation: Operation Ajax: a trip down memory lane. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/21056774-operation-ajax

Wisdom of the Day: “A doctrine derived from the premise that the King can do no wrong deserves no place in American law.” Law Professor Cherminsky.

Closing Argument: Too Much Immunity

 

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The Barnes Brief: October 11, 2024

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Past

What Are The Odds:

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Upcoming

LIVE Friday Night Betting w/ Barnes: https://sportspicks.locals.com/post/6217286/betting-with-barnes-friday-october-11-2024

Saturday Movie: TBD by Board Poll

Sunday: Law for the People w/ Viva

Closing Argument: The Story Polls Tell Us

Book Recommendation: An argument for Trump-style economics from three decades ago by one of the most prescient political analysts of American modern history. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/693546.Staying_on_Top

Art of the Day: I don’t know how impractical it might be, but I’ve always wanted to build a home containing glass ceilings and glass floors in varying parts of the home, to immerse the living space into the outer environment, feeling the skies above and the dirt below, with a special fondness for window views, like clear sky or mountain views from above and river or creek views outside and below. This image captures part of that fascination.

Wisdom of the Day: "Why you talkin' about abortion when we can't feed our kids?" Black woman voter in Las Vegas explaining to a journalist why she's voting Trump over Harris. 

The Merits: Top Five Curated Articles from The Barnes Library

1)  Economy: Recession began in 2022. https://brownstone.org/articles/recession-since-2022-us-economic-income-and-output-have-fallen-overall-for-four-years/

2)  Politics: Climate change is a political loser. https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-clean-energy-transitions-voter

3)  Geopolitics: Journalist arrested in Israel. https://theintercept.com/2024/10/11/us-journalist-jeremy-loffredo-released-israel-detained/

4)  History: NAFTA. https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_bp147/

5)  Culture: Big Pharma’s “studies” exposed.  https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/730383

Homework: Top 10 Cases TBD on Sunday

I.              SCOTUS restarts. https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/10/fourteen-cases-to-watch-from-the-supreme-courts-end-of-summer-long-conference/

II.           Trump NY Appeal.

III.        Amos Miller argument.

IV.         Banks funding cartels. https://www.courthousenews.com/td-bank-to-pay-3-billion-for-allowing-drug-cartels-to-launder-money/

V.           Court clerks strike? https://www.courthousenews.com/san-francisco-superior-court-clerks-authorize-strike/

VI.         Crypto vs Biden continues. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/crypto-sec-lawsuit.pdf

VII.      Roger Ver Indictment problems. https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1350116/dl?inline

VIII.   J6 informant evidence missing. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doj-blames-fbi-informant-deleting-jan-6-evidence

IX.        Cakeshop owner wins final battle. https://www.coloradojudicial.gov/system/files/opinions-2024-10/23SC116.pdf

X.           Senate candidate exposed. https://www.azcourts.gov/Portals/0/OpinionFiles/Div1/2024/1%20CA-CV%2024-0527%20Gallego-Gallego%20v.%20Wa%20Free%20Beacon.pdf

Closing Argument: The Story Polls Tell Us

  • Let’s contrast 2020 to 2024 using one of the most established media supported polls that abandoned election-eve polling after 2012 due to the difficulties faced in predictive surveying of the modern electorate – due to disparate rate of response from different constituencies as landlines disappeared, do-not-call lists blocked prospective pollsters, and other modern methods of text polling, cell-phone polling, automated polling, and online polling proved littered with landmines and traps for the unskilled or unethical. What we can do, though, is compare like-to-like: how is 2024 shaping up differently than 2020, using the same final October poll of the same pollster using the same modes and methods, Pew.
  • In their final 2020 poll, Pew forecast a ten-point Biden win. In their final 2024 poll, Harris holds a within-the-margin-of-error one-point slim lead. Where are the biggest demographic shifts?
  • This is the shift in margin from Biden to Trump in Pew’s final polls. Men shift from Biden to Trump by 12 points. Voters without any college degree shift from Biden to Trump by 13 points. Black voters shift from Biden to Trump by 15 points. Hispanic voters shift from Biden to Trump by 18 points. White non-Hispanic Catholics shift from Scranton Joe to Trump-Vance by 18 points. Independent voters shift from Biden to Trump by 20 points. Asian voters shift from Biden to Trump by 21 points. Non-college black and Hispanic movers shift from Biden to Trump by 21 points. Black men shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. Hispanic women shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. New voters shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. Millennial voters shift from Biden to Trump by 27 points.
  • Hone down and almost all of the loss of Harris’ vote share from Biden comes primarily from self-described Independent, working-class, non-college, millennial, and minority men, unhappy with the economy, immigration and foreign war risk. Just one more data-point confirming what we’ve been predicting here for the better part of a year. The multi-color new coalition of the Emerging Majority is here, and it’s favorite color is Trump Orange.  
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