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News of Day: August 4, 2021

1. Covid. Interesting data buried in the UK reports. The mortality rate from the delta variant for the unvaccinated is more than ten times lower than the mortality rate from the original Covid19. For the unvaccinated, the case fatality rate from the Delta variant is about 1 in 1000, and that includes the infirm and the health-vulnerable populations Covid continues to mostly impact. Of note, the vaccinated appeared to be less likely to get Covid, but of those that did, their mortality rate was actually higher than the unvaccinated in this data set. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf

2. Legal. The Canadian case that went viral does not appear to be what some thought it was. It appears a defendant fighting a covid-based fine served a subpoena on the government, but appears to have served it incorrectly. This led to a response of nothing to respond to, which the defendant misinterpreted as meaning no evidence existed that he had subpoenaed. The defendant then misinterpreted that to mean "the end" of all covid restrictions in the Alberta province. Unfortunately, it's likely just a case of a mis-served subpoena.

3. Economic. The infrastructure bill is trimmed down to less than Trump recommended. It includes about $550 billion in new spending, and that is spread out over 5 years; a $100B/year infrastructure spending will have little impact on a $23T economy. All the various Democratic goodies have been slowly and steadily stripped from the bill, as forecast by Baris & I. https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/whats-really-inside-the-1-trillion-infrastructure-bill-heres-what-we-know-so-far/

4. Political. Even the left continues to concede Newsom's weakness, and the reasons for it -- the lockdowns, mask mandates, school closures, and other public health strategies Newsom led with Cuomo over the last year. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/poll-finds-support-for-gavin-newsom-recall-increased-over-past-2-weeks-are-mask-mandates-to-blame/ar-AAMTlt8?pfr=1

5. Cultural. Hollywood's disconnect from its fan base continues to haunt its box office, as most of their big releases, especially from woke Disney, look to lose $, and some as much as $100M+. Lebron James, king of woke celebrities, will see a $100M+ loss for his version of Space Jam. https://ombreviews.com/box-office-tracking/

Bonus News: Cuomo caught red-handed, and his defense was showing photos of Bill Clinton & Joe Biden being handsy!

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Special Notices

  • Special discount on SportsPicks subscriptions: Get all the picks on elections markets, economic markets, events markets, sports markets, plus exclusive AMAs, Masterclasses, and the best value in prediction markets anywhere, for less than $1/day and more than 50% off the annualized price. Discount code: 1776 https://sportspicks.locals.com/post/8098900/huge-discount
 
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