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The Barnes Brief: Friday. February 21, 2025
February 21, 2025
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Art of the Day

Schedule

Past

  • Live w/ Duran
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Future

  • Friday at 9ish pm eastern:  Betting w/ Barnes: SportsPicks Subscribers Exclusive AMA
  • Saturday Night at 9 pm eastern: Movie TBD
  • Sunday at 9 pm eastern: Viva & Barnes, Law for the People
  • Tuesday-Thursday February 25 to 27, Bourbon w/ Barnes at 9ish eastern

Book Recommendation: Lords of Poverty detailing the fraudulent way many “aid” NGOs work. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53331.Lords_of_Poverty

Art of the Day: From one of the meme maker maestros, an elegant image of simply luxuries to end a hard day’s labor – a smooth glass with a big piece of ice draped in the inviting bourbon sharing the space with a lit cigar, against the backdrop of a whiskey cast with the name slipped in Viva/Barnes…very well done!

Wisdom of the Day: “I still remember, 40 years ago, when I was shackled and put in prison…Being an American citizen didn’t mean a thing then.” Fred Korematsu.

The Library: Top 5 Curated Articles of the Week

  1. A new disease: post Covid vaccination syndrome
  2. Language police
  3. Populist left protest
  4. Homeless rise
  5. Left uncovers why young people shifted                                                                                        

*Bonus: King of late night

Top 10 Cases TBD Sunday

  1. SCOTUS: Civil Rights
  2. SCOTUS: No Justice
  3. SCOTUS: Qui Tam Fraud
  4. SCOTUS: Prejudicial evidence
  5. Senseless in Seattle: Benshoof Case
  6. 1st Amendment Prosecutions
  7. Indentured servants
  8. Parental rights undermined
  9. Trans protections in prison
  10. Doge in court

*Bonus: High Seas power.

 

Closing Argument: Politicized Punishment

From my sentencing brief in the Senseless in Seattle case:

  • How much is enough? Mr. Benshoof has lost his car, lost his home, lost the right to contact his son, and lost his liberty for months in jail. He faces another trial on related charges. The Prosecution suggests an 81-year prison sentence, and formally now seeks an unprecedented, harsh, punitive six-year prison sentence with de facto termination of parental rights in a 5-year no contact order with his own son – for what?  A father texting his teenage son. The son often sought out the contact, and never complained about the contacts. Instead of the facts of this case, the government focuses on everything but this case, while ignoring the punishment that has already been imposed on the defendant. A just sentence conforming to Constitutional principles calls for a time served sentence, not a sentence longer than what some rapists get.  
  • Indeed, the entire case is predicated on a serious Constitutional offense – punishing a defendant for asserting his fundamental right to parent. A court cannot circumvent the Constitutional and statutory processes for terminating parental rights with “no contact” orders. The government’s sentence, if imposed, raises additional Constitutional questions, including terminating parental rights without due process of law and punishing defendants based on the individual interest of prosecutors and courts because the defendant brought legal complaints against them. 
  • Few fundamental rights are more important than the parental right to contact, control and custody of their minor children. Indeed, “[a] parent's right to control and to have the custody of his children is a fundamental civil right which may not be interfered with without the complete protection of due process safeguards.” In re Dependency of K.N.J., 171 Wash. 2d 568, 574, 257 P.3d 522, 526 (2011) (quoting Halsted v. Sallee, 31 Wash. App. 193, 195, 639 P.2d 877 (1982)). Mr. Benshoof, as a “natural parent, has a fundamental liberty interest in his custody and care of” his son. Id. (quoting In re Custody of C.C.M., 149 Wash.App. 184, 203, 202 P.3d 971 (2009)).  “Procedures used to terminate the relationship between parent and child must meet the requisites of the due process clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution.” Id. at 574 (quoting Lassiter v. Dep't of Soc. Servs., 452 U.S. 18, 24–32 (1981)). Indeed, the Court of Appeals has previously noted that relocation and dependency proceedings are distinguishable from termination proceedings because they do not “sever all contact between the nonresidential parent and child.”  In re Marriage of Wehr, 165 Wash. App. 610, 615, 267 P.3d 1045, 1048 (2011). Here, however, the no-contact order at issue in the case, and the no contact order recommended by the prosecution would sever all contact between Mr. Benshoof and his son: without Due Process or the required statutory termination procedures.
  • None of these steps ever occurred: the prior court order stripped the Defendant of his fundamental rights without conforming to Constitutional or statutory process, and punishing him for asserting that right is as problematic as now seeking to create a new no contact order stripping him of those fundamental rights into the future. The Prosecution seeks to skip right over all of the Due Process protections built into a termination procedure and skip directly to the results of the termination: preventing Mr. Benshoof from seeing or contacting his son ever again. The Prosecution is essentially demanding a constructive termination of the parental relationship. Worse still, they demand this against the wishes of Mr. Benshoof’s son – who has the legal right to choose which parent he wishes to retain custody.
  • The government asks this court to commit the very abuses of power that led to standardizing sentencing in the first place: the need to treat similarly situated people similarly. The government’s punitive sentencing request invites yet another legal error: it demands punishment because the defendant has brought legal action against prosecutors and judges. This demand violates the defendant’s right to petition the government for redress of grievances, a Constitutional policy that prevents people seeking extra-legal remedies. While the government objects to the defendant constantly seeking out the courts for remedy, the government ignores his Constitutional right to do so, including the defendant challenging the service of process of the no-contact order at issue in this case, and challenged its constitutionality and jurisdictional authority as well. No one – until now – has sought to imprison someone for petitioning the court for redress of grievances, a First Amendment protected right. Aside from the Constitutional concerns, the government’s complaints about the defendant’s pro se litigation ignores that this case doesn’t concern those matters and that the defendant had already been punished. Mr. Benshoof has already been penalized with denial of the right to sue without advance court permission, dismissal of his petitions, denial of his complaints and appeals, and financial fines. By contrast, a time served sentence conforms to other comparable cases, Constitutional principles, and just sentencing.
  • It is apparent the legal authorities of the Seattle area dislike Benshoof’s pro se litigant and Covid policy protest past, but that is not the basis for imposing the harshest punishment ever imposed on a middle aged defendant with very little criminal history, who has already lost his ability to seek judicial redress without advance judicial permission, lost his car, lost his residence, and lost custody of his son, when that sentence will undermine confidence in the legal system and not be a truly just sentence. How much is enough? 

 

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Closing Argument: Birthright citizenship is deeply American, and wholly Constitutional.

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Declaration of Independence

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Declaration of Independence
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The Barnes Brief: Friday, August 17, 2026

I. INTRODUCTION

*Tickets now for sale. Limited availability. https://www.1776lawcenter.com/

A. Art of the Week

  • The earth, shaded by the moon, from the photos by Artemis, by Musk’s SpaceX to explore the universe. Shades within shades, as the earth looks like a quarter-Moon from earth, but just in reverse. All is often just a matter of perspective. 

B. Recommendation of the Week

C. Wisdom of the Week

  • “But the wisdom that is from above is indeed first pure, then peaceable, gentle, willing to yield, full of mercy and good fruits, without partiality and without hypocrisy.” James 3:17. 

D. Appearances

  • LIVE w/ Ed Dowd.
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  • LIVE w/ Baris & Massie.
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  • LIVE w/ Larry Johnson

II. THE EVIDENCE

*NOTE: A reminder: links are NOT endorsements of the authors or their interpretation of events, but intended to expand our library of understanding as well as expose ideas of distinct perspective to our own. 

A. Barnes Library: Curated Weekly Articles

  1. Iran deal possibility. https://substack.com/home/post/p-194261430
  2. Studying the Blob. https://www.blobstudies.com
  3. Israel support collapses amongst non-Boomer evangelicals. https://www.jpost.com/christianworld/article-786545
  4. Oil economy understood.
  5. Ukraine-Russian war.

 *Bonus: Artemis imagery. https://www.nasa.gov/artemis-ii-multimedia/

B. Best of the Board: Five Fun Posts of the Week

  1. Comedic relief. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862387/title
  2. Appetizing images. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862324/title
  3. Economic realities. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862450/figured-i-d-share-a-very-local-economy-anecdote-from-my-area-i-m-a-homebuilder-in-the-ny-area
  4. Law school lessons. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862399/i-am-sick-again-so-i-havent-been-hugely-functional-but-yesterday-in-a-criminal-law-class-we-ran-th
  5. Oil breakdown. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7862095/title

*Bonus: Meme magic. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7861462/title

C. Homework: Cases of the Week for Sunday

  1. SCOTUS: removal. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-813_3e04.pdf
  2. FISA fails. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/17/spy-powers-expiration-closes-in-as-house-procedural-vote-fails-00878317
  3. Surveillance state controls. https://conservativeladiesofamerica.substack.com/p/the-parents-decide-act-doesnt-let
  4. Trump admin sued w/ rare Quo Warranto petition. https://www.bloomberglaw.com/public/desktop/document/BROWNvDeLeeuwDocketNo126cv01249DDCApr142026CourtDocket?doc_id=X5I57TSSSN08PDAPHKTHG7DTO30
  5. Eastman disbarred. https://www.calbar.ca.gov/news/attorney-john-eastman-disbarred-california-supreme-court
  6. Livenation verdict. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/live-nation-verdict-faceplant-trump-132338276.html
  7. Ukrainegate. https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2026/4154-pr-06-26
  8. Popular vote compact. https://digitalcommons.law.byu.edu/lawreview/vol2012/iss5/3/
  9. Boasberg shut down.  https://media.cadc.uscourts.gov/opinions/docs/2026/04/25-5452.pdf
  10. Savannah Hernandez. https://www.newsnationnow.com/crime/3-arrested-turning-point-usa-reporter-video-assault/
  11. ICE officer arrest. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ice-agent-charged-assault-minnesota-metro-surge-immigration-rcna332210
  12. 1A & licensure. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/25-2991-shamrock-hills-v-Iowa-appelant-brief.pdf

*Bonus: Media censorship limited. https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/04/ftc-takes-action-restore-competition-digital-advertising-ecosystem

**Bonus Cop case in Chicago. https://abc7chicago.com/post/ex-new-york-city-police-sgt-erik-duran-sentenced-throwing-cooler-fleeing-suspect-eric-duprey-killing/18861401/

***Bonus Gallego scandal. https://ktar.com/arizona-news/ruben-gallego-misconduct-allegations/5848619/

D. Deep Dive: Iran War Prospects

  1. The strategic surprise. https://global21.substack.com/p/america-has-never-faced-an-adversary
  2. Iran as new power. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opinion/iran-war-strait-hormuz.html
  3. A grand bargain. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-us-ceasefire-deal/
  4. The Israel aspect. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/israel-ceasefire/#:~:text=In%20order%20to%20do%20that,to%20further%20Israeli%20regional%20ambition.
  5. The Emirati angle. https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/the-united-arab-emirates-america-and-israels-frankenstein-monster/

*Bonus: The lego AI war. https://rumble.com/user/ExplosiveMediaa?e9s=src_v1_cbl

III. CLOSING ARGUMENT: The Power to Tax

  • The Preamble provides the purpose of the federal government to “insure domestic tranquility”, “provide for the common defense”, “promote the general welfare” and “secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity.” These balanced interests find manifestation in the enumerated powers articulated within the rest of the Constitution. 
  • Article I, Section 7 provides for “bills for raising revenue” including the enumerated power “to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposes and excises.” Article I, Section 8 imposes two restraints on the power to tax beyond the purposive restraint “to raise revenue.” All “duties, imposts and excises” must be “uniform throughout the United States.” Article I Section 9 prohibits any tax or duty on exports from any state and no capitation or direct tax can be imposed “unless in proportion to the census.” 
  • The Ninth Amendment further limits those enumerated rights to tax to a taxing power that does not “deny or disparate others retained by the people.” 
  • The Sixteenth Amendment expands Congress power to tax “without apportionment” and “without regard to any census” if imposed “on incomes” regardless of the source of those incomes. Effectively, it removed a federal tax on “incomes” from the apportionment requirement of direct taxes even if those incomes derived from sources that would otherwise require apportionment under Article I. 
  • This leaves open the big question: what is “incomes” under the Sixteenth Amendment? Congress abdicates the issue by using a self-referential and circular definition of income, which under English common law tradition, would negate any income tax since no tax be imposed without unambiguous specificity as to what is being taxed. 
  • The twin decisions that govern this are a dissent and a majority authored by the same Justice a near quarter-century apart — the dissent by Justice White in Pollock and his majority opinion in Brushaber. White considered incomes limited to its original understanding by the voters when ratifying the Sixteenth Amendment, and thus focused not on incomes, but the source rule. He felt a tax on anything other than land and people (capitation) did not require apportionment for its Constitutional imposition. The closest we get is “gain severed from the source” when that source is property or the person. 
  • Hence, a critical term to freedom from imposition by the state remains ambiguous and unanswered — what exactly is “incomes” within the meaning of the Constitution? 
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The Barnes Brief: Easter Weekend, 2026

**Alert: Amos Miller Special Dinner Fundraiser: https://www.1776lawcenter.com

I. INTRODUCTION 

A. Art of the Week

  • Simple, delicate art by our own board member, honoring the Amish and their deeply American way of life. A return to our roots, a remembrance of our past, the connection to nature, the celebration of life, the spiritual grounding of all. The light of the Creator shines through the archives of nature, and especially in the lives, lifestyles, and unbeatable smiles of the Amish. Many thanks to Janelle! 

B. Recommendation of the Week

C. Wisdom of the Week

  • "What these neoconservatives seek is to conscript American blood to make the world safe for Israel.” Pat Buchanan. 

D. Appearances

  • LIVE w/ Massie, etc on Massie Money Bomb. Starts about the 9 hour mark.
  • LIVE w/ Joe Kent
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  • LIVE w/ Daniel Davis

II. THE EVIDENCE

*NOTE: A reminder: links are NOT endorsements of the authors or their interpretation of events, but intended to expand our library of understanding as well as expose ideas of distinct perspective to our own. 

A. Barnes Library: Curated Weekly Articles

  1. Nuke the petrodollar? https://substack.com/home/post/p-193046193
  2. Hersh: ground war incoming. https://substack.com/home/post/p-192971172
  3. Shifting means of war. https://substack.com/@notesongeopolitics/note/c-227238425
  4. Oil market troubles. https://substack.com/home/post/p-192157738
  5. China dependency. https://substack.com/home/post/p-183818706

 *Bonus: Disruption over dominance. https://chandragupta.substack.com/p/adaptation-asymmetry-why-disruption

B. Best of the Board: Five Fun Posts of the Week

  1. Good, Good Friday. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7825982/robertbarnes-robertgouveia-vivafrei-amen
  2. Massie is the goat. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823804/massie-is-the-goat
  3. Meme magic. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7824054/title
  4. Familial art. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823418/hobby-time-so-i-took-a-picture-of-my-grandson-troy-and
  5. Biblical hope.https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7816973/as-i-awoke-this-morning-god-brought-a-verse-to-my-mind-im-watching-nearly-everyone-losing-hope-an

*Bonus: Board poll & discussion. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7826542/board-poll-iran-war

C. Homework: Cases of the Week for Sunday

  1. Pay-for-Play Pam fired. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7817841/well-well-well-our-robertbarnes-was-just-a-couple-days-off-edit-sorry-robert-your-date-was-ap
  2. SCOTUS: Birthright Citizenship. https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/25-5146_6468.pdf
  3. Generals sacked. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823954/title
  4. Chaz death verdict. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823874/judge-denies-seattles-demand-for-new-trial-over-30-5-million-verdict-in-2020-chaz-shooting-death-o
  5. J6 pipe bomber exposed. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7815188/this-is-a-bombshell
  6. Tine Peters appeal outcome. https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Tina_Opinion-1.pdf
  7. OKeefe 2A threatened. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7825133/https-youtube-com-watch-v-rzgl9wihqrs-si-kzhahe-xmdlxm00v-technically-he-doesnt-have-to-show-up
  8. Vance fraud czar. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7826391/i-feel-like-we-ve-seen-this-script-before-hopefully-it-has-a-different-ending-https-x-com-the
  9. Dalaiden dismissed. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7819571/finally-all-charges-dismissed-against-david-daleiden-evidence-baby-parts-for-sale-after-11-years
  10. Nutty Colorado rules. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823702/https-x-com-ianspeir-status-2039724650150994362
  11. Bulls players dismissed for his religious views. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7826147/professor-jonathan-turley-below-is-my-column-in-the-new-york-post-on-the-termination-of-chicago-bu
  12. Time for enforcement. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7823424/https-x-com-afpost-status-2039789171112345664-the-mass-deportation-coalition

*A Board question. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7817093/could-any-of-the-illustrious-attorneys-on-the-board-please-explain-this-to-me-how-is-it-legal-to-ad

**Self-defense? https://courthousenews.com/maui-doctor-claims-self-defense-in-trial-over-wifes-cliffside-attack/

***Sony settlement for gamers. https://courthousenews.com/gamers-near-7-million-settlement-in-playstation-credits-with-sony/

D. Deep Dive: The Gulf 

  1. The genetic gulf between the Arabs & Iranians.
  2. The gulf within the Gulf.
  3. MBS: the Call of Duty fan in charge of the Saudis.
  4. Dubai mirage.
  5. The peculiar history of the Gulf.

*Doomberg: China doesn’t need the Gulf or Iran.

III. CLOSING ARGUMENT: The Constitutional Constrictions on Holding Office

  • Article I, Section 3 conditions holding office as a Senator to those at least 30 years old, a citizen for at least 9 years, and an inhabitant of the state they represent at the time of election. 
  • Article I, Section 2 conditions holding office in the House of Representatives to those at least 25 years of age, a citizen for at least 7 years, and an inhabitant of the state they represent at the time of election. 
  • Article II, Section 1 requires anyone holding the office of the Presidency by a natural born Citizen, at least 35 years of age, and 14 years a resident within the country. 
  • Amendment XIV requires anyone holding the office of Senator or Representative to not have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the United States, not “given aid or comfort to the enemies” of the United States, the latter being defined to times of war. 
  • Amendment XXII further restricts Presidential office to those not elected more than twice and to ten years of Presidential service. 
  • Amendment XXV provides the protocol for a President “unable to discharge the power and duties of his office” permitting his removal on stricter grounds provided for by Impeachment and Removal clauses within the Constitution. 
  • The question thus beckons: if a minimum age be required for holding office, what about a maximum age? Should there be a mandatory retirement age for holding office? Why? Because their elder leaders were George Washington and Benjamin Franklin, not Nancy Pelosi or Joe Biden. Time to reconsider. 
Read full Article
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The Barnes Brief: Friday, March 27, 2026

I. INTRODUCTION 

**Alert: Amos Miller Special Dinner Fundraiser: https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7756876/1776-law-center-fundraiser-birthday-bash-at-amos-millers

A. Art of the Week

  • The artful studio, the hidden cigar room, and the secret negotiations place. The well-structured chairs, the comfortable cushions, the wood-paneled walls, the delicate lamps, the simple table, the luxuriant rug, the seafaring sailboat beckoning on the wall. The simple art of everyday aesthetics that shape mind and soul alike, the art that envelops and motivates at the same. An inviting, beckoning, hidden welcome. 

B. Recommendation of the Week

C. Wisdom of the Week

  • “The most disadvantageous peace is better than the most just war.” Desiderius Erasmus. 

D. Appearances

  • Interview w/ Dr. Parsi.
    placeholder

II. THE EVIDENCE

*NOTE: A reminder: links are NOT endorsements of the authors or their interpretation of events, but intended to expand our library of understanding as well as expose ideas of distinct perspective to our own. 

A. Barnes Library: Curated Weekly Articles

  1. The Gallipoli example. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/veterans-iran/
  2. Private credit risks spread. https://substack.com/home/post/p-192317151
  3. Doomberg’s perspective. https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/house-of-pain
  4. Exit ramps. https://www.cato.org/commentary/how-end-war-iran
  5. Dr. Malone exits. https://thehighwire.com/watch/

 *Bonus: Rescued by hanging onto a cliff. https://abc7news.com/post/live-crews-working-rescue-person-clinging-cliff-house-san-francisco/18773788/

B. Best of the Board: Five Fun Posts of the Week

  1. Comedic wisdom. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7802545/this-ones-for-you-janet-fly-the-friendly-skies
  2. American roulette. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7802590/seems-pretty-accurate-from-where-i-sit-both-parties-are-poison-they-just-have-different-ideas-on
  3. Light and shadow at the Lighthouse. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7802467/title
  4. Malone warns. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7801997/they-tried-it-s-over
  5. Ideas for reformers. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7802626/here-it-is-robertbarnes-a-highly-detailed-and-extensively-researched-list-for-1776-law-center-u

*Bonus: Art meets nature. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7801135/title

C. Homework: Cases of the Week for Sunday

  1. Free speech win. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/03/27/a_consent_decree_for_freedom_speech_153985.html
  2. Pentagon loses Anthropic block. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.465515/gov.uscourts.cand.465515.134.0.pdf
  3. North Carolina voter id upheld. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/nc-voter-id-naacp-hirsch-berger.pdf
  4. Environmentalists lose. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/reclamation-water-contracts-ruling.pdf
  5. Cop negligence. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/monica-liliana-v-san-diego-ruling.pdf
  6. Musk loses. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/x-advertiser-boycott-lawsuit-dismissed.pdf
  7. Musk loses again. https://www.storyboard18.com/digital/elon-musk-challenges-twitter-fraud-verdict-flags-4-20-joke-as-jury-bias-93424.htm
  8. Facebook loses. https://courthousenews.com/meta-and-google-hit-with-6-million-verdict-for-social-media-harms-to-young-woman/
  9. Facebook loses again. https://nmdoj.gov/press-release/new-mexico-department-of-justice-wins-landmark-verdict-against-meta/
  10. SCOTUS: copyright law. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-171_bq7d.pdf
  11. SCOTUS: more immunity. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-297_bqm2.pdf
  12. SCOTUS: mail-in voting argument. https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/24-1260_8njq.pdf

*Bonus: A joke lawsuit over Lion King. https://www.slashfilm.com/2133281/the-lion-king-circle-of-life-singer-comedian-learnmore-jonasi-lawsuit/

**Bonus: Google settles again. https://topclassactions.com/lawsuit-settlements/open-lawsuit-settlements/5m-google-play-subscription-class-action-settlement/

***Bonus; MN sues over shootings. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.290713/gov.uscourts.dcd.290713.1.0_2.pdf

D. Deep Dive: Sources on X to Follow on Iran War

  1. War analyst. https://x.com/pati_marins64
  2. Former Israeli defense intelligence. https://x.com/citrinowicz
  3. War & geopolitics nerd. https://x.com/policytensor
  4. Commodity manager. https://x.com/tleilax___
  5. Geopolitics from an economics perspective. https://x.com/DarioCpx?

*Bonus: War nerd. https://x.com/ripplebrain

III. CLOSING ARGUMENT: An Answer to My Critics on Iran War

  • A few common complaints recur. Their most continuous error is the failure to step back and provide an effective overview. What are the rewards you seek? What is the probability the means you employ will obtain those rewards? What are the risks of using those means to obtain those rewards? What is the probability of those risks coming to fruition? This simple 4-step analysis is the very thing the critics can’t seem to meaningfully engage. Instead, the criticisms tend to conflate wishful thinking with geopolitical realism. 
  • For example: “Are you saying you want the Islamic regime in Iran to be the hegemon in the Middle East?” Nope. I am saying the current war is more and more likely to make them such a hegemon. This common confusion conflates wishful thinking with geopolitical realism. Recognizing a likely reality doesn’t make it a desirable reality. Wishing for a particular outcome doesn’t make it happen. This isn’t a fairytale world. 
  • Another: “Sounds like Barnes is moving the goal posts by labeling Iran's proxies as 'resistance movements. ' lol” It is important to use consistent, objective definitions for a label like “terrorism”, rather than the subjective whims of calling those you don’t like “terrorists” but excuse the identical conduct by those you support as something else. Terrorism has a long standing broadly understood definition: “the unlawful use of violence against civilians to intimidate societies for politicized objectives.” By that definition, Iran’s support tends to be for rebels who mostly use violence against states or other armed rivals — e.g., the Houthis, Hezbollah and the Shia Militias in Iraq. By contrast, they fought ISIS more than we did. By our own State Department, more terrorism happens by Israel and US backed groups than by Iran. Pretending otherwise makes the Iran critics look hypocritical and fraudulent. Equally, and more importantly for American security interests, it makes Iran’s government not an imminent threat to Americans in our own homeland. As is, even if it did, the war creates far more terrorists who will target America.  
  • A third: “I guess a 4000km range missile doesn't worry Mr. Barnes. Personally, I would prefer a non-radioactive Middle East.” Once again, what is your evidence Iran would use nuclear armed ballistic missiles against the United States when they have whenever attacked us in our homeland, ever? Even if you believed that was so, how do you think the war reduces that risk? 
  • This fundamental failure to test their own assumptions, filter their own arguments through an objectively verifiable standard, and their dubious sourcing relying on emotional appeals, the critics reveal their lack of quality arguments for their position. 
  • My take: I see the reward of a peaceful, democratic, pro-American, pro-Israel regime in Iran as highly unlikely. I see the reward of an Iran incapable of making nuclear weapons as equally unlikely. I see the reward of a docile, submissive Iran, unsupportive of Shia rebel groups and the Palestinians as equally unlikely. Indeed, I see the risk of a more hostile, more likely to get nuclear weapons, more likely to embrace true terrorism, as the more probable outcome of the war. As important, I see the risk of Democratic dominance for a half-decade as much more likely than Iran becoming the 1978 Shah’s version of Iran, due to the betrayal to anti-war voters, the economic fallout from the conflict, the budgetary cost of the war, and the way it sucks all the oxygen out of the room from achieving any meaningful reforms of the kind Trump voters elected him to achieve.
  • It is that risk-reward analysis that leads to my skepticism toward the war. Those who disagree need to do so on those terms — what is the sought after reward?; what is the price, or risk, of the means chosen to obtain that reward?; compare and contrast the two to come to a decision about the policy preferences concerning the war. The fact the critics cannot even try to do so speaks volumes about the absence of good arguments on their side of supporting the war. 
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