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December 30, 2024

"For decades, many progressives, Democrats, and others on the Left have argued that Republicans were racist for criticizing the mass migration of unskilled, non-college-educated workers from foreign countries. Around 2016, Democratic leaders, who had recognized the need for border control a few years earlier, increasingly denounced Republicans and Trump supporters as white supremacists.

But the vast majority of those people weren’t racists at all, and they were rightly concerned about the downward pressure of mass migration on the wages of non-college-educated people, the high economic costs of mass migration, and the societal divisions it creates.

Over the past week, many conservatives, Republicans, and others on the Right have similarly argued that critics of mass migration by skilled, college-educated workers from foreign countries are racists. President Donald J. Trump and other Republican leaders, including those who have criticized mass low-skilled migration for the last decade, defended the expansive use of H-1B visas for skilled, college-educated workers. Some Trump allies demonized Republican critics of high-skilled migration as white supremacists.

Although some online commentators have expressed racist views, the vast majority of the H-1B program’s critics have consistently made economic, not race-based, arguments against the program. Like critics of mass low-skilled migration they are rightly concerned about the downward pressure of the H-1B system on wages, in this case of college-educated Americans in tech, as well as the societal costs of H-1B visa abuse and misuse.

The overheated conflict between Republicans over H-1B visas for skilled foreign migrants may resolve itself. Last week, President-elect Donald Trump said, “I have many H-1B visas on my properties. I’ve been a believer in H-1B. I have used it many times. It’s a great program.” Then, Trump advisors Elon Musk and David Sacks said they supported changing the rules around H-1B visas to raise the minimum salary and to make it more expensive to hire a foreign worker than an American citizen.

And yet the tempers between the protagonists of the debate today remain as high as ever, particularly on Musk’s X. Republicans who are more supportive of the migration of high-skilled workers are still accusing their opponents of engaging in racism and white identity politics, while Republicans who favor a more restrictive policy are accusing their opponents of selling out their fellow Americans for a cheap buck.

A lot of the excess heat over this issue is driven by some combination of a slow news period, holiday boredom, and the greater attention people naturally pay to conflicts among ostensible friends and allies than to conflicts between political competitors.

But the highly intense, emotional, and polarizing quality of the debate on the H-1B visa reveals a serious division within the Republican Party between its pro-business and nationalist wings — one that risks undermining the Trump presidency.

Nationalism, and in particular the protection of American jobs from foreign competition, has been central to Trump’s appeal and to his transformation of the Republican Party since 2016. Americans elected Trump to protect them from the effects of mass migration, in large measure for economic reasons, out of recognition that open border policies drive down working-class wages. It’s true that immigrants have always played a large role in shaping American culture and driving innovation. At the same time, many citizens have reasonable concerns about the economic effects of globalization on both the working and middle classes. The foreign-born share of the American population is at its highest level in over a century, and MAGA voters have repeatedly shown that they will not fall in line with the views of the party’s business leaders for the simple reason that they view mass migration as an existential threat to America’s future.

Support from the business community in general, and the high-tech community in particular, was crucial to getting Trump elected. Republicans need to maintain that support, both if they are to stay in power and if they are to govern. Democrats outspent Republicans in the 2024 elections, thanks to their support from unions, government employees, and much of the business world. Republicans thus need to expand, not shrink, their influence among entrepreneurs within the business world.

In office, Trump will need to find a way to bridge the intraparty divide over the specific H-1B visa question. The Musk and Sacks compromise may satisfy Trump’s nationalist base, particularly if he follows through on the other commitments he has made to them. Or, given the harshly negative reaction among Trump supporters to H-1B supporters, and the continued accusations of racism directed toward the MAGA base, the problem may prove more difficult to solve.

And a range of other questions, including over domestic manufacturing, the strength of the dollar, US trade policies, and relations with China may trigger similar fights in the coming months and years among the same nationalist and pro-business factions.

Please subscribe now to support Public's award-winning reporting and to read the rest of the article!"

https://x.com/shellenberger/status/1873775605533336035

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Lools like schedule is going to be definitively off Monday through Thursday.

I’ll be alive at some point today, just not at 15:00 ET.

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Art of the Day: The Water Fountain. To make the simple, elegant; the functional, expressive; the accessible, ideal. Decorative arts charm the mind by turning the ordinary into extraordinary, the everyday into an otherworldly invitation. This form of decorative arts remakes our material world into an ethereal paradise of the mind evoking the God shaped spark of the soul for a task as mundane as getting a sip of water. 

Book Recommendation History rhymes. The last effort of the Deep State to regime change in Iran birthed us the current regime. The Coup: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13586980-the-coup?

Wisdom of the Day: “A passionate attachment of one nation for another produces a variety of evils. Sympathy for the favorite nation, facilitating the illusion of an imaginary common interest in cases where no real common interest exists and infusing into one the enmities of the other, betrays the former into a participation in the quarrels and wars of the latter, without adequate inducement or justification.” George Washington, Farewell Address. 

 

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, June 20, 2025

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Wisdom of the Day: “But America goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy…. America well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign Independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom. The fundamental maxims of her policy would insensibly change from liberty to force. The frontlet upon her brow would no longer beam with the ineffable splendor of Freedom and Independence; but in its stead would soon be substituted an Imperial Diadem, flashing in false and tarnished lustre the murky radiance of dominion and power. She might become the dictatress of the world. She would be no longer the ruler of her own spirit.” John Quincy Adams.

 

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Barnes Brief: Special War Edition, Monday, June 16, 2025
  • When swing state voters were asked in 2024, they overwhelmingly opposed joining any war between Israel and Iran.

 

  • This is nothing new, as the same skepticism animated voter response during the Iran nuclear weapons panic of 2009.

 

  • Americans do not want the US to be the dominant player on the world’s stage.

 

  • Americans see us as overinvolved already.

 

  • Americans do not want to risk war with nuclear powers.

 

  • Americans no longer believe intervention solves anything.

 

 

  •  This reflects souring opinion on military interventions in general.

 

  • Americans saw this all the way back to the Korean war that sunk Truman.

 

 

  • They just as quickly turned on the Iraq war that crushed Bush and the Bush coalition forever.

 

 

 

  • Part of this also reflects that Americans increasingly view Netanyahu’s Israeli government skeptically.

 

 

 

  • Skepticism of Israel under Netanyahu is now a global phenomenon.

 

 

 

 

 

  • The only group that a majority supports Israel over the Palestinian cause are now reduced to boomercons.

 

 

 

 

  • Hence, Trump’s temporary Gaza idea was widely rejected right away by voters.

 

  • Indeed, a surge in opposition amongst younger independent voters even has a bare majority supporting even giving military aid at all to Israel.

 

 

  • Americans are even split on helping Israel against Hamas, fueled by young voter skepticism.

 

 

 

  • Every group is trending negative toward Netanyahu’s Israel.

 

Hence, why so few Americans back American direct involvement in a war with Iran. 

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