Schedule: Past & Prospective
Past
What Are The Odds:
Upcoming
LIVE Friday Night Betting w/ Barnes: https://sportspicks.locals.com/post/6217286/betting-with-barnes-friday-october-11-2024
Saturday Movie: TBD by Board Poll
Sunday: Law for the People w/ Viva
Closing Argument: The Story Polls Tell Us
Book Recommendation: An argument for Trump-style economics from three decades ago by one of the most prescient political analysts of American modern history. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/693546.Staying_on_Top
Art of the Day: I don’t know how impractical it might be, but I’ve always wanted to build a home containing glass ceilings and glass floors in varying parts of the home, to immerse the living space into the outer environment, feeling the skies above and the dirt below, with a special fondness for window views, like clear sky or mountain views from above and river or creek views outside and below. This image captures part of that fascination.
Wisdom of the Day: "Why you talkin' about abortion when we can't feed our kids?" Black woman voter in Las Vegas explaining to a journalist why she's voting Trump over Harris.
The Merits: Top Five Curated Articles from The Barnes Library
1) Economy: Recession began in 2022. https://brownstone.org/articles/recession-since-2022-us-economic-income-and-output-have-fallen-overall-for-four-years/
2) Politics: Climate change is a political loser. https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-clean-energy-transitions-voter
3) Geopolitics: Journalist arrested in Israel. https://theintercept.com/2024/10/11/us-journalist-jeremy-loffredo-released-israel-detained/
4) History: NAFTA. https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_bp147/
5) Culture: Big Pharma’s “studies” exposed. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/730383
Homework: Top 10 Cases TBD on Sunday
I. SCOTUS restarts. https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/10/fourteen-cases-to-watch-from-the-supreme-courts-end-of-summer-long-conference/
II. Trump NY Appeal.
III. Amos Miller argument.
IV. Banks funding cartels. https://www.courthousenews.com/td-bank-to-pay-3-billion-for-allowing-drug-cartels-to-launder-money/
V. Court clerks strike? https://www.courthousenews.com/san-francisco-superior-court-clerks-authorize-strike/
VI. Crypto vs Biden continues. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/crypto-sec-lawsuit.pdf
VII. Roger Ver Indictment problems. https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1350116/dl?inline
VIII. J6 informant evidence missing. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doj-blames-fbi-informant-deleting-jan-6-evidence
IX. Cakeshop owner wins final battle. https://www.coloradojudicial.gov/system/files/opinions-2024-10/23SC116.pdf
X. Senate candidate exposed. https://www.azcourts.gov/Portals/0/OpinionFiles/Div1/2024/1%20CA-CV%2024-0527%20Gallego-Gallego%20v.%20Wa%20Free%20Beacon.pdf
Closing Argument: The Story Polls Tell Us
- Let’s contrast 2020 to 2024 using one of the most established media supported polls that abandoned election-eve polling after 2012 due to the difficulties faced in predictive surveying of the modern electorate – due to disparate rate of response from different constituencies as landlines disappeared, do-not-call lists blocked prospective pollsters, and other modern methods of text polling, cell-phone polling, automated polling, and online polling proved littered with landmines and traps for the unskilled or unethical. What we can do, though, is compare like-to-like: how is 2024 shaping up differently than 2020, using the same final October poll of the same pollster using the same modes and methods, Pew.
- In their final 2020 poll, Pew forecast a ten-point Biden win. In their final 2024 poll, Harris holds a within-the-margin-of-error one-point slim lead. Where are the biggest demographic shifts?
- This is the shift in margin from Biden to Trump in Pew’s final polls. Men shift from Biden to Trump by 12 points. Voters without any college degree shift from Biden to Trump by 13 points. Black voters shift from Biden to Trump by 15 points. Hispanic voters shift from Biden to Trump by 18 points. White non-Hispanic Catholics shift from Scranton Joe to Trump-Vance by 18 points. Independent voters shift from Biden to Trump by 20 points. Asian voters shift from Biden to Trump by 21 points. Non-college black and Hispanic movers shift from Biden to Trump by 21 points. Black men shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. Hispanic women shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. New voters shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. Millennial voters shift from Biden to Trump by 27 points.
- Hone down and almost all of the loss of Harris’ vote share from Biden comes primarily from self-described Independent, working-class, non-college, millennial, and minority men, unhappy with the economy, immigration and foreign war risk. Just one more data-point confirming what we’ve been predicting here for the better part of a year. The multi-color new coalition of the Emerging Majority is here, and it’s favorite color is Trump Orange.
