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The Barnes Brief: October 11, 2024
October 11, 2024
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Art of the Day

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Past

What Are The Odds:

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Upcoming

LIVE Friday Night Betting w/ Barnes: https://sportspicks.locals.com/post/6217286/betting-with-barnes-friday-october-11-2024

Saturday Movie: TBD by Board Poll

Sunday: Law for the People w/ Viva

Closing Argument: The Story Polls Tell Us

Book Recommendation: An argument for Trump-style economics from three decades ago by one of the most prescient political analysts of American modern history. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/693546.Staying_on_Top

Art of the Day: I don’t know how impractical it might be, but I’ve always wanted to build a home containing glass ceilings and glass floors in varying parts of the home, to immerse the living space into the outer environment, feeling the skies above and the dirt below, with a special fondness for window views, like clear sky or mountain views from above and river or creek views outside and below. This image captures part of that fascination.

Wisdom of the Day: "Why you talkin' about abortion when we can't feed our kids?" Black woman voter in Las Vegas explaining to a journalist why she's voting Trump over Harris. 

The Merits: Top Five Curated Articles from The Barnes Library

1)  Economy: Recession began in 2022. https://brownstone.org/articles/recession-since-2022-us-economic-income-and-output-have-fallen-overall-for-four-years/

2)  Politics: Climate change is a political loser. https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-clean-energy-transitions-voter

3)  Geopolitics: Journalist arrested in Israel. https://theintercept.com/2024/10/11/us-journalist-jeremy-loffredo-released-israel-detained/

4)  History: NAFTA. https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_bp147/

5)  Culture: Big Pharma’s “studies” exposed.  https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/730383

Homework: Top 10 Cases TBD on Sunday

I.              SCOTUS restarts. https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/10/fourteen-cases-to-watch-from-the-supreme-courts-end-of-summer-long-conference/

II.           Trump NY Appeal.

III.        Amos Miller argument.

IV.         Banks funding cartels. https://www.courthousenews.com/td-bank-to-pay-3-billion-for-allowing-drug-cartels-to-launder-money/

V.           Court clerks strike? https://www.courthousenews.com/san-francisco-superior-court-clerks-authorize-strike/

VI.         Crypto vs Biden continues. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/crypto-sec-lawsuit.pdf

VII.      Roger Ver Indictment problems. https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1350116/dl?inline

VIII.   J6 informant evidence missing. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doj-blames-fbi-informant-deleting-jan-6-evidence

IX.        Cakeshop owner wins final battle. https://www.coloradojudicial.gov/system/files/opinions-2024-10/23SC116.pdf

X.           Senate candidate exposed. https://www.azcourts.gov/Portals/0/OpinionFiles/Div1/2024/1%20CA-CV%2024-0527%20Gallego-Gallego%20v.%20Wa%20Free%20Beacon.pdf

Closing Argument: The Story Polls Tell Us

  • Let’s contrast 2020 to 2024 using one of the most established media supported polls that abandoned election-eve polling after 2012 due to the difficulties faced in predictive surveying of the modern electorate – due to disparate rate of response from different constituencies as landlines disappeared, do-not-call lists blocked prospective pollsters, and other modern methods of text polling, cell-phone polling, automated polling, and online polling proved littered with landmines and traps for the unskilled or unethical. What we can do, though, is compare like-to-like: how is 2024 shaping up differently than 2020, using the same final October poll of the same pollster using the same modes and methods, Pew.
  • In their final 2020 poll, Pew forecast a ten-point Biden win. In their final 2024 poll, Harris holds a within-the-margin-of-error one-point slim lead. Where are the biggest demographic shifts?
  • This is the shift in margin from Biden to Trump in Pew’s final polls. Men shift from Biden to Trump by 12 points. Voters without any college degree shift from Biden to Trump by 13 points. Black voters shift from Biden to Trump by 15 points. Hispanic voters shift from Biden to Trump by 18 points. White non-Hispanic Catholics shift from Scranton Joe to Trump-Vance by 18 points. Independent voters shift from Biden to Trump by 20 points. Asian voters shift from Biden to Trump by 21 points. Non-college black and Hispanic movers shift from Biden to Trump by 21 points. Black men shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. Hispanic women shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. New voters shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. Millennial voters shift from Biden to Trump by 27 points.
  • Hone down and almost all of the loss of Harris’ vote share from Biden comes primarily from self-described Independent, working-class, non-college, millennial, and minority men, unhappy with the economy, immigration and foreign war risk. Just one more data-point confirming what we’ve been predicting here for the better part of a year. The multi-color new coalition of the Emerging Majority is here, and it’s favorite color is Trump Orange.  
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Movie Night: The Patriot

An American-style Easter. Will start watching at 9 pm eastern on the dot. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0187393/

Board Poll: Saturday Movie

Pick your favorite, and we'll watch tonight at 9 pm eastern.

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, April 17, 2025

Planned Appearances

Art of the Day: Swiss Master Craft

Patek Phillipe, the Swiss watchmaker whose rare watches can fetch millions at auction. The signature accessory of successful men, and the Swiss tradecraft remains world renowned for a reason. I uncovered the significance after a client gifted me one of their watches years ago, only to uncover I was giving would-be bandits about six-figure reasons to machete my hand off. I generally avoid watches to this day. The artistic rendering of time in the Swiss skill-craft proves an art of its own kind which I leave at home rather than accompany me in public. Indeed, a well-chosen watch can be a valuable asset of a financial freedom plan. My favorite watch I still cherish the most though still recalls my Dad’s favorite watch, a then $49.99 calculator watch he could use to do math in a jam, which he showed off to everybody. It wasn’t Swiss-made, but it represented an equally true form of expression and real wealth.

Book Recommendation

 Wealth & Democracy by Kevin Phillips includes a substantial section dedicated to the economic rise and fall of great powers, with a particular focus on trade and industrial policy.  

Wisdom of the Day

“The fact that hearings are utilized by the Executive to secure an informed basis for the exercise of summary power does not argue the right of courts to retry such hearings not bespeak denial of due process to withhold such power from the courts.” Justice Frankfurter, Ludecke v. Watkins (1948).

 

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, April 4, 2025

Schedule

Past

Future

  • Friday at 9ish pm eastern: Betting w/ Barnes AMA
  • Saturday Movie Night at 9 pm eastern: Val Kilmer Movie TBD
  • Sunday at 6 pm eastern: Viva & Barnes, Law for the People

Book Recommendation: The VBL book list, a humble 568 of them. An example: Kevin Phillips’ biography of President McKinley, a book enjoyed by President Trump.  https://www.goodreads.com/review/list/130921670-robert-barnes?ref=nav_mybooks&shelf=vivabarneslaw

Art of the Day: The effusive ebullience of jazz, the colorful spirit the saxophone sings in its inventive riffs, the chic cool of a jazz club off an alley in Paris or hidden in a cave-like basement in Gotham or enveloped by the memory of history in New Orleans amongst the young folks’ revelry. The explosion of color in the art evinces that echoed memory of jazz clubs on a warm summer night, where everybody is a cool cat. In another life, I’d be a jazz drummer.

Wisdom of the Day: "It was the stage in which they were starting to lose what had been built up by the solid things: industry and physical commerce and agriculture and maritime industries. If we look at what happened to them, it's confirming the dangers of letting yourself get into this posture of thinking that you can provide services and finance to the world and that works. It never has." Kevin Phillips. 

 

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, March 15, 2025

Schedule

Future

  • Friday at 9ish pm eastern: Betting w/ Barnes AMA
  • Saturday Night at 9 pm eastern: Comedy Movie TBD
  • Sunday at 6 pm eastern: Viva & Barnes, Law for the People

Book Recommendation: Framed by John Grisham. Non-fiction work on wrongfully convicted.

 

Art of the Day: Geometric ancient art found on walls, temples, and pottery from centuries ago across civilizations, societies, and geographies around the globe. Recently highlighted by the likes of Graham Hancock and other explorers of ancient civilizations, this unique geometric art depicted here in Greek pottery, represents a kind of collective unconscious across ancient societies. It stood out to me for a different reason: a tattoo artist from Tahiti (where the word tattoo originated) designed an engagement ring tattoo for me a decade+ ago mimicking the same identical design, though I neither requested nor he suggested it. Something deep in the human consciousness calls to this simple symbol of truth in life.

 

Wisdom of the Day: “The power in the judicial will enable them to mould the government into almost any shape they please.” Brutus, Anti-Federalist, 1788.

Closing Argument: Time to Judge the Judges

 

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