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The Barnes Brief: Friday, August 16, 2024
August 16, 2024
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Art of the Day

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Closing Argument: Economic Tea Leaves

Book Recommendation: The Saga of Uncle Earl https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1150991.Earl_K_Long

Art of the Day: Fascinated with art and photography capturing water, bridges, windows, and doors, as expressing the possibility of life, the paths yet to pursue, the mysteries to be uncovered and the truths to be discovered, Monet’s water lilies and Japanese bridges always drew me in. A favorite museum of mine – like Frida’s house in Mexico City and Rodin’s in Paris – Monet’s in the French countryside attracted to visit the nearby lily pond he made famous and stand on that same bridge he spent so much time making immemorial. A place to get lost in thought as the archives of nature invite us into that window into our own soul, explore the water of the spirit, walk through that door into our inner world, bridging the nature around us to the soul inside, and it’s shared architect.

Wisdom of the Day: "The time is always right to do what is right." Earl Long. 

Introduction: Top 10 Headlines of the Week

  1. Trump team
  2. Housing woes
  3. Horrid current economy conditions
  4. Harris new plan
  5. Disney abuse
  6. Ukraine invades
  7. Perry death arrests
  8. Massive hack
  9. Biden crime admissions
  10. DNC tries to stop RFK on ballot

The Evidence: Top Ten Articles from The Barnes Library

  1. The promise of JD
  2. CRE troubles
  3. War on small business
  4. Price control debate
  5. Price control advocates
  6. Price control skepticism
  7. Price control criticism
  8. Price control doubts
  9. Price control queues
  10. Price control efficacy & equity

*Bonus: Aesthetic revolution

Homework: Cases TBD on Sunday

  1. Voter registration lawsuit https://mcusercontent.com/08cb3e52aa1308600f84d49ea/files/8827e8ea-0eb8-123c-23b9-5d39b2e8c0e4/1_2024_08_13_Complaint.pdf
  2. UAW charges Trump for Musk interview https://www.reuters.com/world/us/uaw-files-labor-charges-against-trump-musk-2024-08-13/
  3. EU threatens Musk https://x.com/lindayaX/status/1823052643733823640
  4. Pepsi class action https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/ian-mccausland-v-pepsico-ruling-mtd.pdf
  5. Fourth Amendment victory https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/23/23-60321-CR0.pdf
  6. Scott Peterson innocence claim https://www.courthousenews.com/scott-peterson-makes-bid-to-clear-his-name-by-dna-testing-evidence-from-pregnant-wifes-murder/
  7. AI fake nudes https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/nudify-websites-lawsuit.pdf
  8. Big Tech battle https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2024/08/16/23-2969.pdf
  9. Facebook censorship https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2024/08/09/21-16210.pdf
  10. Bank seizure https://www.ca10.uscourts.gov/sites/ca10/files/opinions/010111094414.pdf
  11. Legality of price controls https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=2373&context=dlj
  12. Tik Tok ban https://sf16-va.tiktokcdn.com/obj/eden-va2/hkluhazhjeh7jr/2024.06.20%20-%20TT%20v.%20Garland%20-%20%5B2060743%5D%20Brief%20of%20Petitioners%20TikTok%20Inc%20and%20ByteDance%20Ltd.pdf

*Bonus: Arbitration abuse, ex. Disney

Closing Argument: Economic Tea Leaves

  • The Boston Tea Party manifested a political revolution rooted in an economic revolt. The economic tea leaves ever since signaled political change. 2024 tells a very interesting tale in the tea leaves of the economy.
  • Since its inception in the 1950’s, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment studies only dipped below 70 for extended time periods in the run-up to the 1980, 1992 and 2008 Presidential elections. In all three cases, the incumbent party lost the electoral college by 100+ vote landslides.
  • The current confidence index continues to trail in the sub-70s in the run-up to 2024. Amongst the working class, the current sub-60s confidence index only matches 2008 and 1980, two elections that didn’t end up competitive at any level come election day. The working-class negativity over the current economic conditions in the past year set a record low since the inception of the survey. Gallup’s aggregate economic confidence index follows the same path, with the lowest levels recorded since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the recession of 1992.
  • A related concern focuses on the physical manifestation of the American dream: the family homestead. American’s confidence in their ability to buy a home currently sits at the lowest level ever in the history of the survey. Of note, similar data mirrors in American’s confidence to buy a car or significant household items.
  • This translates into other tangible ways beyond skipping vacations, meals out, a family night at the movies, that special gift on that special occasion, or a personal item of special interest – skipping meals and skipping medical appointments. A majority of working-class Americans report skipping on meals and medicine, as well as utilities like hot water, heat or air conditioning, in the last six months due to the inability of their income to keep with the cost of living in essential goods and services.
  • This is often compounded by a diminishing sense of security in their ability to retire, savings for emergencies, and rising debt levels, often borrowing from friends and family, loan sharks and payday lenders, high interest credit cards or high interest vehicle or furnishing providers. For younger Americans outside the affluent classes, this took on a double whammy as eviction delays ended, student loans came due, and stimulation checks disappeared.
  • This economic perception reflects their economic reality: food prices spiked 25% since Biden’s election, housing prices doubled in many markets, gas prices jumped 50%, and utility costs fled up, while access to credit shrunk, small businesses struggled and real wages and incomes fell. It’s a recipe no incumbent party has ever survived. Those that ignore it usually get their tea tossed. 
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I.    INTRODUCTION

A. Art of the Day

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II.                         THE EVIDENCE

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