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The Barnes Brief: Friday, August 16, 2024
August 16, 2024
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Art of the Day

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Closing Argument: Economic Tea Leaves

Book Recommendation: The Saga of Uncle Earl https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1150991.Earl_K_Long

Art of the Day: Fascinated with art and photography capturing water, bridges, windows, and doors, as expressing the possibility of life, the paths yet to pursue, the mysteries to be uncovered and the truths to be discovered, Monet’s water lilies and Japanese bridges always drew me in. A favorite museum of mine – like Frida’s house in Mexico City and Rodin’s in Paris – Monet’s in the French countryside attracted to visit the nearby lily pond he made famous and stand on that same bridge he spent so much time making immemorial. A place to get lost in thought as the archives of nature invite us into that window into our own soul, explore the water of the spirit, walk through that door into our inner world, bridging the nature around us to the soul inside, and it’s shared architect.

Wisdom of the Day: "The time is always right to do what is right." Earl Long. 

Introduction: Top 10 Headlines of the Week

  1. Trump team
  2. Housing woes
  3. Horrid current economy conditions
  4. Harris new plan
  5. Disney abuse
  6. Ukraine invades
  7. Perry death arrests
  8. Massive hack
  9. Biden crime admissions
  10. DNC tries to stop RFK on ballot

The Evidence: Top Ten Articles from The Barnes Library

  1. The promise of JD
  2. CRE troubles
  3. War on small business
  4. Price control debate
  5. Price control advocates
  6. Price control skepticism
  7. Price control criticism
  8. Price control doubts
  9. Price control queues
  10. Price control efficacy & equity

*Bonus: Aesthetic revolution

Homework: Cases TBD on Sunday

  1. Voter registration lawsuit https://mcusercontent.com/08cb3e52aa1308600f84d49ea/files/8827e8ea-0eb8-123c-23b9-5d39b2e8c0e4/1_2024_08_13_Complaint.pdf
  2. UAW charges Trump for Musk interview https://www.reuters.com/world/us/uaw-files-labor-charges-against-trump-musk-2024-08-13/
  3. EU threatens Musk https://x.com/lindayaX/status/1823052643733823640
  4. Pepsi class action https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/ian-mccausland-v-pepsico-ruling-mtd.pdf
  5. Fourth Amendment victory https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/23/23-60321-CR0.pdf
  6. Scott Peterson innocence claim https://www.courthousenews.com/scott-peterson-makes-bid-to-clear-his-name-by-dna-testing-evidence-from-pregnant-wifes-murder/
  7. AI fake nudes https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/nudify-websites-lawsuit.pdf
  8. Big Tech battle https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2024/08/16/23-2969.pdf
  9. Facebook censorship https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2024/08/09/21-16210.pdf
  10. Bank seizure https://www.ca10.uscourts.gov/sites/ca10/files/opinions/010111094414.pdf
  11. Legality of price controls https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=2373&context=dlj
  12. Tik Tok ban https://sf16-va.tiktokcdn.com/obj/eden-va2/hkluhazhjeh7jr/2024.06.20%20-%20TT%20v.%20Garland%20-%20%5B2060743%5D%20Brief%20of%20Petitioners%20TikTok%20Inc%20and%20ByteDance%20Ltd.pdf

*Bonus: Arbitration abuse, ex. Disney

Closing Argument: Economic Tea Leaves

  • The Boston Tea Party manifested a political revolution rooted in an economic revolt. The economic tea leaves ever since signaled political change. 2024 tells a very interesting tale in the tea leaves of the economy.
  • Since its inception in the 1950’s, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment studies only dipped below 70 for extended time periods in the run-up to the 1980, 1992 and 2008 Presidential elections. In all three cases, the incumbent party lost the electoral college by 100+ vote landslides.
  • The current confidence index continues to trail in the sub-70s in the run-up to 2024. Amongst the working class, the current sub-60s confidence index only matches 2008 and 1980, two elections that didn’t end up competitive at any level come election day. The working-class negativity over the current economic conditions in the past year set a record low since the inception of the survey. Gallup’s aggregate economic confidence index follows the same path, with the lowest levels recorded since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the recession of 1992.
  • A related concern focuses on the physical manifestation of the American dream: the family homestead. American’s confidence in their ability to buy a home currently sits at the lowest level ever in the history of the survey. Of note, similar data mirrors in American’s confidence to buy a car or significant household items.
  • This translates into other tangible ways beyond skipping vacations, meals out, a family night at the movies, that special gift on that special occasion, or a personal item of special interest – skipping meals and skipping medical appointments. A majority of working-class Americans report skipping on meals and medicine, as well as utilities like hot water, heat or air conditioning, in the last six months due to the inability of their income to keep with the cost of living in essential goods and services.
  • This is often compounded by a diminishing sense of security in their ability to retire, savings for emergencies, and rising debt levels, often borrowing from friends and family, loan sharks and payday lenders, high interest credit cards or high interest vehicle or furnishing providers. For younger Americans outside the affluent classes, this took on a double whammy as eviction delays ended, student loans came due, and stimulation checks disappeared.
  • This economic perception reflects their economic reality: food prices spiked 25% since Biden’s election, housing prices doubled in many markets, gas prices jumped 50%, and utility costs fled up, while access to credit shrunk, small businesses struggled and real wages and incomes fell. It’s a recipe no incumbent party has ever survived. Those that ignore it usually get their tea tossed. 
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The Barnes Brief: Friday, October 25, 2024

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Art of the Day: The pride of skill, the mastery of craft, the aesthetic of labor as the anesthetic answer to a commodified, corporatized, dehumanized life imagined for the working class by distant elites. The deindustrialization of America damaged the soul of America, as it replaced empowering honest labor with numbers on a balance sheet of a bureaucratized, soul-lobotomized number-cruncher. Rebalancing the productive economy requires respecting honest work that produces real and tangible value beyond dollars and cents.   

Book Recommendation: Working class rebellion of the 1970s. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/8614946-stayin-alive?

Wisdom of the Day: “Work is just living out the script to Office Space. We don’t devalue work; work devalues us.” Gen Z worker explaining the antipathy of the Gen Z to the modern workplace.

 

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The Barnes Brief: Friday, October 18, 2024

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Past

What Are The Odds:

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Upcoming

LIVE Friday Night Betting w/ Barnes at 9pm: https://sportspicks.locals.com/post/6244428/betting-w-barnes-ama-friday-october-18-2024

Saturday Movie: TBD by Board Poll

Sunday: Law for the People w/ Viva

Art of the Day: Needed: an old school study with fireplace, deep leather chairs, the requisite humidor, oil paintings on the wall of ancestors, plush carpets on hardwood floors, old cognac and elegant bourbon in the cabinet, a few classic books on the shelves, and memorable conversations for generations.

Book Recommendation: Operation Ajax: a trip down memory lane. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/21056774-operation-ajax

Wisdom of the Day: “A doctrine derived from the premise that the King can do no wrong deserves no place in American law.” Law Professor Cherminsky.

Closing Argument: Too Much Immunity

 

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The Barnes Brief: October 11, 2024

Schedule: Past & Prospective

Past

What Are The Odds:

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Upcoming

LIVE Friday Night Betting w/ Barnes: https://sportspicks.locals.com/post/6217286/betting-with-barnes-friday-october-11-2024

Saturday Movie: TBD by Board Poll

Sunday: Law for the People w/ Viva

Closing Argument: The Story Polls Tell Us

Book Recommendation: An argument for Trump-style economics from three decades ago by one of the most prescient political analysts of American modern history. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/693546.Staying_on_Top

Art of the Day: I don’t know how impractical it might be, but I’ve always wanted to build a home containing glass ceilings and glass floors in varying parts of the home, to immerse the living space into the outer environment, feeling the skies above and the dirt below, with a special fondness for window views, like clear sky or mountain views from above and river or creek views outside and below. This image captures part of that fascination.

Wisdom of the Day: "Why you talkin' about abortion when we can't feed our kids?" Black woman voter in Las Vegas explaining to a journalist why she's voting Trump over Harris. 

The Merits: Top Five Curated Articles from The Barnes Library

1)  Economy: Recession began in 2022. https://brownstone.org/articles/recession-since-2022-us-economic-income-and-output-have-fallen-overall-for-four-years/

2)  Politics: Climate change is a political loser. https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-clean-energy-transitions-voter

3)  Geopolitics: Journalist arrested in Israel. https://theintercept.com/2024/10/11/us-journalist-jeremy-loffredo-released-israel-detained/

4)  History: NAFTA. https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_bp147/

5)  Culture: Big Pharma’s “studies” exposed.  https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/730383

Homework: Top 10 Cases TBD on Sunday

I.              SCOTUS restarts. https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/10/fourteen-cases-to-watch-from-the-supreme-courts-end-of-summer-long-conference/

II.           Trump NY Appeal.

III.        Amos Miller argument.

IV.         Banks funding cartels. https://www.courthousenews.com/td-bank-to-pay-3-billion-for-allowing-drug-cartels-to-launder-money/

V.           Court clerks strike? https://www.courthousenews.com/san-francisco-superior-court-clerks-authorize-strike/

VI.         Crypto vs Biden continues. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/crypto-sec-lawsuit.pdf

VII.      Roger Ver Indictment problems. https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1350116/dl?inline

VIII.   J6 informant evidence missing. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doj-blames-fbi-informant-deleting-jan-6-evidence

IX.        Cakeshop owner wins final battle. https://www.coloradojudicial.gov/system/files/opinions-2024-10/23SC116.pdf

X.           Senate candidate exposed. https://www.azcourts.gov/Portals/0/OpinionFiles/Div1/2024/1%20CA-CV%2024-0527%20Gallego-Gallego%20v.%20Wa%20Free%20Beacon.pdf

Closing Argument: The Story Polls Tell Us

  • Let’s contrast 2020 to 2024 using one of the most established media supported polls that abandoned election-eve polling after 2012 due to the difficulties faced in predictive surveying of the modern electorate – due to disparate rate of response from different constituencies as landlines disappeared, do-not-call lists blocked prospective pollsters, and other modern methods of text polling, cell-phone polling, automated polling, and online polling proved littered with landmines and traps for the unskilled or unethical. What we can do, though, is compare like-to-like: how is 2024 shaping up differently than 2020, using the same final October poll of the same pollster using the same modes and methods, Pew.
  • In their final 2020 poll, Pew forecast a ten-point Biden win. In their final 2024 poll, Harris holds a within-the-margin-of-error one-point slim lead. Where are the biggest demographic shifts?
  • This is the shift in margin from Biden to Trump in Pew’s final polls. Men shift from Biden to Trump by 12 points. Voters without any college degree shift from Biden to Trump by 13 points. Black voters shift from Biden to Trump by 15 points. Hispanic voters shift from Biden to Trump by 18 points. White non-Hispanic Catholics shift from Scranton Joe to Trump-Vance by 18 points. Independent voters shift from Biden to Trump by 20 points. Asian voters shift from Biden to Trump by 21 points. Non-college black and Hispanic movers shift from Biden to Trump by 21 points. Black men shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. Hispanic women shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. New voters shift from Biden to Trump by 25 points. Millennial voters shift from Biden to Trump by 27 points.
  • Hone down and almost all of the loss of Harris’ vote share from Biden comes primarily from self-described Independent, working-class, non-college, millennial, and minority men, unhappy with the economy, immigration and foreign war risk. Just one more data-point confirming what we’ve been predicting here for the better part of a year. The multi-color new coalition of the Emerging Majority is here, and it’s favorite color is Trump Orange.  
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