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Prison Call from one of the Coutts Four

I just got off a prison call with one of the Coutts Four. I have never had a prison call before.

The phone rings. It's an 866 "Toll Free" number. When I answer, it says it's a call from and inmate at the Lethbridge Remand Center, would I like to accept. I accept.

It's Chris Carbert. 46. Father of 2. Owned an award-winning landscape company before being detained for going on 18 months now in pre-trial detention. No trial. No conviction. No bail. Charges of "conspiracy to commit murder", among other things. The evidence, as I understand it, consists of two RCMP officer statements. No recording. No text messages.

Chris says he measures time in months. But that he tries not to count the passage of time because it's unproductively upsetting.

Conceptually, there are two categories of theft: Tangible and intangible. Theft of goods can always be replaced. Theft of the intangible - innocence, life, and time, cannot be replaced.

There is no greater theft than the theft of time, and Chris and the other Coutts Four have had nearly two years of his life stolen.

I ask him about the conditions... His daily routine. He says he is in good spirits but that there are days. He works. He gets his exercise. And he prays. The most poignant thing he said to me is that he would not have made it this far without faith. And without the support of those on the outside.

There was a lull in public awareness between the arrests and today... In the early days, the accusations sounded so scary it was enough to sway public opinion into passive acceptance.

That, and the slew of injustices make it almost impossible to keep up. The Coutts Four. Tamara Lich. Chris Barber. Pat King. Jeremy MacKenzie. Shelia Lewis. Artur Pawlowskli. Tim Stephens. I know I've forgotten some. Which is their objective.

And as I'm writing this post, I get a call from Chris Lysak, but our call was cut short because inmates had to go into lockdown or something.

It's a dark time. Not just for Canada - the so-called "True North Strong and Free". It's a dark time for the West. For so-called "democracies". Trudeau and Biden lecture the world on "autocracies" like Russia, China, North Korea - countries where journalists are locked up. Where people are guilty until provedn innocent. Where the accused get kangaroo-court show trials and excessive sentences. Yet here in the "land of the free", indefinite detainment for non-violent mischief charges. Pastors get locked up for holding church services. Some politicians get charged, indicted, convicted - while others break the rules with impunity.

With so much injustice, how do you focus your energies on every or any given one of them? It's a deluge of injustice that fatigues a populace into silence, abandonment, and tacit acceptance.

And it's by design.

A couple of weeks ago, after some public outcry, Sheila Annette Lewis settled her dispute with Alberta Health Service. Sheila was taken off the organ donor list for not getting the jab. A 57-year-old woman sentenced to death by so-called doctors. A death-sentenced that was ratified by our so-called "justice system". People screamed loud enough into the void that the void seemed to have heard.

Dan Hartman - father of 17-year-old Sean Hartman who died 33 days after getting the Pfizer jab - finally got the results of an expert who confirmed the jab was contributive, if not directly responsible for Sean's death. After nearly 2 years of being ignored, demonized, denied basic human dignity. Yet he is still ignored by Canadian media and the parliamentarians who fund them.

And, as I'm writing this, I just got another call - this time from Tony Olienick. We spoke for 40 minutes. Calls are limited to 20 minutes, so after our call was abruptly cut off, and he called me back.

He is in good spirits. He too has found faith. He has been reading. He is clearly not just intelligent, but well-informed. In a way, the spiritual trinity of to not only survive, but thrive. No need to get into the details of what we discussed (though I assume all calls are being surveilled in the hopes that government can find something to hold against these political prisoner), but it was amazingly encouraging to hear that someone can still find optimism and purpose in the darkest of times. Though I guess in the deepest of darknesses, the faintest of lights shines even brighter.

I asked Tony what his go-to verse of the Bible is. He has now read it multiple times, and has even started a Bible group while locked up. He said it was Ephesians 6.

The passage ie below. Read it and, if your are a praying person, maybe say a prayer.

This is an existential crisis we are going through as a society. Violence is not the answer and will never be the answer. It is, in fact, what the forces of evil want. To destroy the good, and in so doing, justify their tyranny to themselves. And it become exceedingly despairing when the violence does not even need to exist in order for the forces of evil to manufacture it.

Raise public awareness. Make peaceful noise. Share their stories. Get people talking. Change comes from the bottom up, and from the top down in a mutually influencing way.

The injustices we have been witnessing on an individual basis are not individual injustices, and they will not remain relegated to the individual. They are social injustices that will one day come for each and every one of us if we do not address them now.

Share the story. Write your MPs. Raise awareness. Make it impossible for anyone to plausibly say "I didn't know".

-Viva

King James Version

1 Children, obey your parents in the Lord: for this is right.

2 Honour thy father and mother; which is the first commandment with promise;

3 That it may be well with thee, and thou mayest live long on the earth.

4 And, ye fathers, provoke not your children to wrath: but bring them up in the nurture and admonition of the Lord.

5 Servants, be obedient to them that are your masters according to the flesh, with fear and trembling, in singleness of your heart, as unto Christ;

6 Not with eyeservice, as menpleasers; but as the servants of Christ, doing the will of God from the heart;

7 With good will doing service, as to the Lord, and not to men:

8 Knowing that whatsoever good thing any man doeth, the same shall he receive of the Lord, whether he be bond or free.

9 And, ye masters, do the same things unto them, forbearing threatening: knowing that your Master also is in heaven; neither is there respect of persons with him.

10 Finally, my brethren, be strong in the Lord, and in the power of his might.

11 Put on the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to stand against the wiles of the devil.

12 For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.

13 Wherefore take unto you the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand.

14 Stand therefore, having your loins girt about with truth, and having on the breastplate of righteousness;

15 And your feet shod with the preparation of the gospel of peace;

16 Above all, taking the shield of faith, wherewith ye shall be able to quench all the fiery darts of the wicked.

17 And take the helmet of salvation, and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God:

18 Praying always with all prayer and supplication in the Spirit, and watching thereunto with all perseverance and supplication for all saints;

19 And for me, that utterance may be given unto me, that I may open my mouth boldly, to make known the mystery of the gospel,

20 For which I am an ambassador in bonds: that therein I may speak boldly, as I ought to speak.

21 But that ye also may know my affairs, and how I do, Tychicus, a beloved brother and faithful minister in the Lord, shall make known to you all things:

22 Whom I have sent unto you for the same purpose, that ye might know our affairs, and that he might comfort your hearts.

23 Peace be to the brethren, and love with faith, from God the Father and the Lord Jesus Christ.

24 Grace be with all them that love our Lord Jesus Christ in sincerity. Amen.

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Still my worst night of bowling ever

But I just converted one heck of a split!

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IGNORED By Canadian Media! Minister of Health Marjorie Michel REFUSES to Answer VERY Simple Question

Today's clip

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Operation Baby Duck Rescue

In the "unnecessary but fun" rescues of the day... From over the weekend.

Narrated by Viva Frei - the newer more nasally version of Morgan Freeman.

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February 17, 2024
Appearance on Richard Syrette

I did a quick hit on Richard Syrette yesterday. Gotta keep Canadians apprised of the U.S. madness.

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The Barnes Brief, Podcast Format: Monday, July 17, 2023

Closing Argument: Birthright citizenship is deeply American, and wholly Constitutional.

The Barnes Brief, Podcast Format: Monday, July 17, 2023
Declaration of Independence

Audio podcast style.

Declaration of Independence
Questions for Bourbon with Barnes: Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Ask in replies and answering Live at 9ish eastern tonight.

3 hours ago

I went to our local feed store today. They had local strawberries for sale. I couldn't believe it. We usually don't have local strawberries until the end of may.

This country, without all the forces coming against it, can produce food and energy for its citizens. There wasn't a bad berry in the entire gallon bucket. They taste like God poured sugar from heaven on them! This picture of these berries doesn't do them justice. Deep red, shiny and juicy. 🥰😋

Questions for Bourbon with Barnes: Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Ask in replies and answering Live at 9ish eastern tonight.

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The Briefer Barnes Brief: Wednesday, May 6, 2026

I. INTRODUCTION

  • A.  Art of the Day: Best way to start a day: early morning coffee. Maybe on a back porch. Maybe at a kitchen table. Maybe in a friendly diner. Maybe at a corner caffe. Maybe in a local coffee house. A tradition commenced in the hills of Yemen, it traversed the Islamic world until it reached Europe, where it turn the holy inspirational drink in the Turkish caves to the everyday place of chatter in the newborn cafes of Europe in the 17th century. Be that as it may, for many still, it signals the start of the day in a good way. 
  • B.  Board Post of the Day: https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7905561/title
II. THE EVIDENCE 

A.  Barnes Library

  1. Economy: Snider on gas prices.
  2. Culture: World Cup interest dims. https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2026/05/05/hotels-world-cup-non-event-so-far/
  3. Politics: Massie mini-documentary.
  4. Law: Abortion pill at SCOTUS. https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/05/abortion-pill-dispute-returns-to-supreme-court/
  5. Geopolitics: Larry Johnson on Trump’s mixed signals. https://sonar21.com/ball-of-confusion-trumps-mixed-signals-on-iran/
*Bonus: Animated Fed history told by some friends of mine years ago that they gave away for free. 
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The Barnes Brief: Friday, May 1, 2026

 

 

I. INTRODUCTION 

A. Art of the Week

  • A symphony of cigar smoke, whiskey in the air, leather comfort awaiting, all inviting into a conversation w/ either oneself or fellow travelers, where the lyrics of the malt dance with the warmth of the tobacco, in a tradition as old as both. 

B. Recommendation of the Week

C. Wisdom of the Week

  • “All human beings are members of one frame, Since all, at first, from the same essence came. When time afflicts a limb with pain, The other limbs at rest cannot remain. If thou feel not for other’s misery, A human being is no name for thee.”  Persian poet Sa’adi: 

D. Appearances

II. THE EVIDENCE

  • *NOTE: A reminder: links are NOT endorsements of the authors or their interpretation of events, but intended to expand our library of understanding as well as expose ideas of distinct perspective to our own. 

A. Barnes Library: Curated Weekly Articles

  1. Baris: worst poll ever for Trump. https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/national-mood-worsens-for-republicans-in-april-2026-national-poll/
  2. Gatekeeping errors of the past. https://www.katytalento.com/p/confessions-of-a-white-house-public
  3. Welders rise. https://unherd.com/2026/05/goodbye-information-age/?edition=us
  4. AI doubts. https://prospect.org/2026/05/01/subsidize-build-export-repeat-ai-stack-national-security/
  5. Dems left platform for 2026. https://prospect.org/2026/04/29/congressional-democrats-progressive-caucus-unveils-affordability-contract-with-america/

 *Bonus: Beds for those without. https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/6500-volunteers-build-10k-beds-in-24-hours-in-north-carolina/

B. Best of the Board: Five Fun Posts of the Week

  1. Memeatic magic. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7897040/title
  2. Truth. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7897203/title
  3. Losing touch. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7897081/not-a-fan-of-erika-kirk-but-i-find-myself-appalled-by-erikas-recent-treatment-at-don-jrs-fiancees
  4. Local warnings. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7895761/our-gas-today-in-northeast-ohio-is-4-99-up-from-about-3-60-last-week-how-long-and-how-high-can
  5. Comedic wisdom. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7893712/title

*Bonus: Beauty in black & white. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7895352/edinburgh-scotland

C. Homework: Cases of the Week for Sunday

  1. Comey indicted. https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1438481/dl
  2. Covid indictment. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mdd.603873/gov.uscourts.mdd.603873.1.0_1.pdf
  3. SCOTUS: 1st Amendment & discovery. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7892809/scotus-expands-right-to-sue-over-illicit-state-discovery
  4. SCOTUS: Racial redistricting. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7892804/scotus-limits-racial-redistricting
  5. Candace sued. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.tnmd.108994/gov.uscourts.tnmd.108994.1.0.pdf
  6. FISA. https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2050047557158707601?s=20
  7. Iran War to court: Force Majeuere. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/oil-traders-lawyer-up-as-hormuz-triggers-billions-in-disputes
  8. Farm Bill. https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/2049860117437219016?s=20
  9. OpenAI Trial. https://courthousenews.com/musk-testimony-continues-in-openai-fight/
  10. Narcos style indictment. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/sinaloa-governor-indictment-sdny.pdf
  11. Bail for illegals. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/second-circuit-says-noncitizens-can-get-bail.pdf
  12. Montana DA takeover. https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/MTAG/2026/04/30/file_attachments/3635043/AG%20Letter%20Invoking%20Supervisory%20Control%204.30.26.pdf

*Bonus: Google settlement. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/google-settlement.pdf

** Bonus: Crazy JP Morgan suit. https://www.livemint.com/news/us-news/i-own-you-jpmorgan-executive-accused-of-drugging-abusing-male-junior-banker-in-lawsuit-key-allegations-11777545493334.html

***Bonus: Infowars. https://courthousenews.com/texas-appeals-court-pauses-the-onions-purchase-of-infowars/

 

D. Deep Dive: Iran Exit Ramps

  1. Big gap in negotiations. https://global21.substack.com/p/there-is-no-effective-room-for-diplomacy
  2. Regime consolidation. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-war-saved-iranian-regime
  3. Iran Oil status. https://theprint.in/world/no-the-iranian-oil-industry-isnt-about-to-explode/2917718/
  4. Blockade limits. https://sonar21.com/the-bogus-blockade-claim-of-the-us-department-of-war/
  5. Kinetic limits. https://richardhaass.substack.com/p/the-us-iran-and-the-art-of-the-deal

*Bonus: Iran’s Lego pr. https://substack.com/@tritaparsi/note/c-251532814

III. CLOSING ARGUMENT: Constitution, Fifth Amendment & Discovery

  • In general, civil contempt “is intended to coerce the disobedient party into compliance with the court’s order through incarceration and/or monetary punishment.” Commonwealth v. Bowden, 838 A.2d 740, 761 (Pa. 2003). The court may not impose a coercive civil contempt sanction where compliance with the court’s order is impossible. In re Martorano, 346 A.2d 22, 29 (Pa. 1975). In determining what sanction to impose, “a court must exercise the least possible power suitable to achieve the end proposed.” Commonwealth v. Cromwell Twp., 32 A.3d 639, 653 (Pa. 2011) (citing Spallone v. United States, 493 U.S. 265, 276 (U.S. 1990)).
  • Contempt is not available for a witness asserting the protection of the Fifth Amendmenty right not to be a witness against onself. Note what the Amendment does not say:  a right not to incriminate onself. Instead, it's a right not to be a witness in any manner in a proceeding where the witness' evidence can be used adverse to them. A witness “cannot be compelled to give evidence against himself.” “The Amendment not only protects the individual against being involuntarily called as a witness against himself in a criminal prosecution but also privileges him not to answer official questions put to him in any other proceeding, civil or criminal, formal or informal, where the answers might incriminate him in future criminal proceedings.” Lefkowitz v. Turley, 414 U.S. 70, 77 (U.S. 1973). 
  • The Third Circuit held that: “A trial court must carefully balance the interests of the party claiming protection against self-incrimination and the adversary's entitlement to equitable treatment. Because the [Fifth Amendment] privilege is constitutionally based, the detriment to the party asserting it should be no more than is necessary to prevent unfair and unnecessary prejudice to the other side.” S.E.C. v. Graystone Nash, Inc., 25 F.3d 187, 192 (3d Cir. 1994). This includes orders to compel password disclosures. Commonwealth v. Davis, J-42-2019 (Pa. 2019). A court cannot order contempt for a Fifth Amendment assertion. Commonwealth v. Leclair, 2014-CJC-11469 (Mass. 2006). 
  • A Pennsylvania Court of Common Pleas expressly cited Graystone Nash and used it as the basis for decision-making in Haas v. Bowman, 62 Pa. D. & C.4th 1, 10 (Pa. Com. Pl. 2003). In Haas, the Court of Common Pleas cited numerous cases to hold that “Under this standard, noncompliance with pleading requirements cannot be a basis for entering a judgment against a party properly invoking the Fifth Amendment privilege.” Haas v. Bowman, 62 Pa. D. & C.4th 1, 11 (Pa. Com. Pl. 2003). “Absent independent, probative evidence produced by the party bearing the burden of proof, the implications of one's assertion of the Fifth Amendment privilege are speculative at best, and insufficient to support an adverse factual determination.” Harmon v. Mifflin Cnty. Sch. Dist., 552 Pa. 92, 100, 713 A.2d 620, 624 (Pa. 1998). 
  • Where usinesses are alter egos of the individual defendants, the businesses too should be protected by the Fifth Amendment. United States v. Doe, 465 U.S. 605, 613 n. 11 (U.S. 1984). Under United States v. Doe, 465 U.S. 605, 613 n. 11 (U.S. 1984), the Supreme Court held that the business records of an individual proprietorship are essentially the same as individual records for the purposes of the Fifth Amendment. Braswell v. United States, 487 U.S. 99, 104 (U.S. 1988). Pennsylvania courts recognize this risk and that a court cannot, through contempt, compel an individual to be a witness against themselves. Sweet v. The City of Williamsport, No. 20-CV-00512 (C.P. Lycoming County June 27, 2022 Linhard, J.)  
  • As such, the coercive power of the state cannot compel, under threat of contempt, a witness to be a witness against themselves without violating the Fifth Amendment to the Constitution, a right rooted in opposing Inquisitorial methods to extract information from state targets. 
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Barnes Brief: Friday, April 24, 2026

I. INTRODUCTION 

A. Art of the Week

  • Love the look & feel of old books (antiquarian in the colloquial parlance), as I collected them for years, but also feel more comfortable in their physical presence, enveloping you as you think, in the home libraries of yesteryear, connecting you to the thoughts and ideas of your ancestors, shared  just through the smell, look and feel of the leather-bound texts from the handmade book publishers of old, an initiating to retreat into the past and explore it like the recesses of one’s own mind for the thoughts that race across the page and whisper from the old ink stained pages. 

B. Recommendation of the Week

C. Wisdom of the Week

  • "Yesterday, upon the stair, I met a man who wasn’t there. He wasn’t there again today, I wish, I wish he’d go away. When I came home last night at three, The man was waiting there for me. But when I looked around the hall, I couldn’t see him there at all! Go away, go away, don’t you come back any more! Go away, go away, and please don’t slam the door... Last night I saw upon the stair, A little man who wasn’t there. He wasn’t there again today, Oh, how I wish he’d go away..."  William Hughes Mearns. 

D. Appearances

II. THE EVIDENCE

*NOTE: A reminder: links are NOT always endorsements of the authors or their interpretation of events, but intended to expand our library of understanding as well as expose ideas of distinct perspective to our own. 

A. Barnes Library: Curated Weekly Articles

  1. Tankers skip blockade. https://www.ft.com/content/21dff2c7-1e27-4f74-81d8-31dcdbe9188e
  2. Doubts about madman strategies. https://substack.com/home/post/p-192512883
  3. Consumer sentiment new lows. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence
  4. Job market worries spike. https://www.gallup.com/workplace/703280/worker-thriving-declines-job-market-pessimism-grows.aspx
  5. MAHA status. https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/forefront/maha-check-up-united-states-getting-healthier

 *Bonus: Old school medical remedies. https://substack.com/@varianavolk/note/c-244056215

B. Best of the Board: Five Fun Posts of the Week

  1. Too true. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7876337/title
  2. Beauty in the backyard. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878608/1st-goldfinches-were-at-the-feeder-today-they-left-before-i-got-my-camera-a-sparrow-did-pose-for-a
  3. Wisdom. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7877990/so-if-the-splc-paid-regular-people-to-pretend-they-were-nazis-in-charlottesville-there-really-was
  4. Recipes. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7877606/cooking-time-tonites-recipe-is-a-cheese-and-onion-quic
  5. Congratulations! https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7876028/just-found-out-that-i-passed-the-pe-practices-and-principles-of-engineering-exam-this-will-allo

*Bonus: Sarcasm. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878157/title

C. Homework: Cases of the Week for Sunday

  1. SPLC Indictment. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7877843/professor-jonathan-turley-the-indictment-of-the-southern-poverty-law-center-on-federal-fraud-charg
  2. Insider trading indictment for soldier. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-classified-information-profit-prediction-market-bets
  3. Ten Commandments. https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/25/25-50695-CV0.pdf
  4. Ghost guns. https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/national-association-for-gun-rights-jared-polis-opinion.pdf
  5. Surveillance Accountability Act. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878502/surveillance-accountability-act-this-is-new-legislation-put-forth-by-thomas-massey-and-lauren-boeber
  6. Loomer loses. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878370/federal-judge-dismisses-laura-loomers-defamation-suit-against-bill-maher-of-course-it-was-a
  7. J6 CIA suit. https://Vvivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7874216/shauni-kerkhoff-sued
  8. Kash sues. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7876578/kash-patel-sues
  9. Powell case dropped. https://courthousenews.com/justice-department-drops-criminal-probe-into-fed-chair-jerome-powell/
  10. AI embarrassment. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878598/https-x-com-smb-attorney-status-2046600985254977878
  11. AI invasion. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7878135/it-sounds-like-the-just-us-system-is-nullifying-the-4th-amendment-when-it-comes-down-to-using-ai-ie
  12. VA redistricting challenge. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7877770/hot-air-beege-welborn-virginia-judge-rules-va-gerrymandering-vote-unconstitutional-https-hota

*Bonus: GA 2020 election dispute. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7876741/https-www-courtlistener-com-docket-72267501-pitts-v-united-states-filed-after-filed-before-entr

** Bonus: Amazon caught. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7876825/https-x-com-ric-rtp-status-2046578708035604945

***Bonus: AI fakes. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7877192/robertbarnes-vivafrei-and-all-president-trump-posted-this-on-truth-today-april-22-2026

D. Deep Dive: Iran War Oil Price Impact

  1. Supply offline. https://substack.com/@hfir/note/c-248155408
  2. Supply shock risks. https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/sanguine-strait-stoppage
  3. Electricity price spikes. https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/post/7875883/us-electricity-bills-are-surging-average-us-residential-electricity-prices-rose-5-yoy-to-a-reco
  4. China energy resilience re: Iran War. https://substack.com/home/post/p-195176243
  5. Doomberg: war effects. https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/backwards-looking

*Bonus: Chris Martenson.

III. CLOSING ARGUMENT: Iran War -- Exit, Don't Escalate

Trump's stated objectives of the Iran War cannot be won militarily without too high a price for Americans to pay, primarily in economic casulaties, but also in military casualties and domestic political casualties. Let's weight the risks and the realities of the means to obtain the potential reward. 

Rewards: a peaceful, democratic, pro-American, pro-Israel regime in Iran without a nuclear enrichment program, a long-range ballistic missle program, a long-range drone program, underwater drones, or minsubs, fast armed boats, to further secure an open-and-free (or US controlled) Strait of Hormuz for expeditious transport of essential goods, including energy, fertilizer, and supply chain critical supplies like helium, aluminium, and the like. 

Risks: Military casualties, in the injuries, disabilities or deaths of American soldiers, as well as diminished interest in service in the military from distrusted use of the military by military prospects, plus loss munitions, armaments, drones, weapons, jets, ships, radars, and military base infrastructure. Related thereto, the loss of perception of power in the projection of power, especially to the global south. Finally, militarily the undermining of our alliances in the middle east and Asia especially. Economic cacualties in the lost transit, and lost long-term control, of critical energy supplies, fertiliziers, and other essential and critical goods for the global supply chain, from helium to aluminum and more. Political casualties at home in fractured domestic political support, diminished capital for legislative actions, and risks of major midterm losses that could stalemate government and produce impeachment. 

How does a blockade of the blockade achieve the rewards? The theory is that Iran's inability to export through the Strait will cause them such economic difficulty that they will capitulate to give up their soveriegnty, forfeit nuclear enrichment entirely to the US, drop the missle and drone programs, and turn over power to another regime entirely. I see the chances of that as less than 1%. Iranian nationalism, Persian pride, and Shia sacrifical spirituality make surrender worse than death for this regime and many of the people. 

How does a bombing campaign achieve the rewards? If 40 days of 10K plus bombing targets didn't work, why would bombing a few more targets for a few more weeks achieve anything consequential? The no-bridges-and-power-plants war crime full Sherman approach only backfires by destroying all the oil infrastructure of the GCC countries triggering an economic apocalypse for America and the west, a retaliatory risk too great for any rational American leader to consider.

How does an exit achieve the rewards? It doesn't. But it does avoid the risks. And that's why exit rather than escalation is the rational America-First choice. 

 

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